Who do you want at pick #16 tonight?

This the the summary around Precious's weaknesses from game tape (per Athletic).

WEAKNESSES: Ultimately, a lot of Achiuwa’s questions come down to processing speed, particularly on offense. How quickly does he see the game? Can he improve that with time, given that he’s still relatively early in his basketball progression? The best place to see this is on offense. Achiuwa is a bit of a turnover machine given what his role is. He turned the ball over nearly three times per game, while only dishing out one assist per game. He rarely even made flash passes that made you think there was room for growth. There were a lot of poor shots from Achiuwa this season while his teammates stood open, particularly on terrible floaters when he was away from the rim. He made just 25 percent of his 27 floater attempts this season according to Synergy. Also took more midrange jumper attempts than you’d like to see. His recognition of what a good shot is has to improve, and it has to improve by him becoming a better decision maker who sees more available reads on the floor as a passer.

Those poor shot choices hinder his efficiency, as seen by his below-average 53.4 true-shooting percentage this year. Takes a lot of tough shots at the rim because he misses kickouts and doesn’t really have crazy vertical pop unless he’s loading off of two feet. Diminishes his ability as a pick-and-roll finisher. Having said that, his skill level at the basket isn’t great either. Achiuwa only made 57.3 percent of his shots at the rim this season according to Synergy, an above-average number overall but a well below-average number for a player of his size and athleticism. He’s largely a below-the-rim finisher, which hinders his efficiency, too. Not necessarily a great option on dump-offs because of that need to load off of two feet. Loses that extra split second of being open and allows defenders to come over to contest.

Those relative struggles around the rim are compounded by the fact that Achiuwa is an inconsistent shooter. He did make over 32 percent from 3 this year, but largely only made them on wide-open attempts when he had time to really load into the shot. His misses are all over the place when he’s contested because his mechanics are inconsistent, particularly in his lower body. His shot prep is horrible. He doesn’t have a strong shooting base as his feet are too close together. He has an unnatural turn that knocks his balance off. His upper body mechanics are OK and he gets a relatively clean release, but his shoulders hunch a bit and he doesn’t involve the legs at all. Has been a very poor free throw shooter, too, hitting just 55.9 percent from the line.

I will also note: while I think Achiuwa has absolutely tremendous defensive upside, he does need to work on his mechanics. Can sometimes get beat off the dribble because he’s not as disciplined at staying in his stance as is necessary. Bites on a lot of fakes and change of pace moves.

 

Here's the breakdown on Reed. His stats definitely looked to have improve each year.

Paul Reed | F/C | DePaul | Birthdate: June 14, 1999 (Age: 21) | 6-9 | 220 LBS | Hometown: Apopka, Fla.


BACKGROUND: Parents are Michelle and Paul. Paul played basketball in college at UCF, then went to play professionally overseas. Uncle is former wide receiver Mike Sims-Walker of 2009 fantasy football fame with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Reed was something of a late bloomer. He was a 6-foot-2 freshman in high school who grew to be 6-foot-5 for his junior year, then 6-foot-8 by the time he graduated. Played on the adidas circuit and as solid before his senior year. But really exploded that season. Averaged a double-double and led Wekiva High to the state finals where it lost. He was named Central Florida Player of the Year. Given his late rise, Reed was not a particularly sought-after recruit throughout high school. Teams like Clemson and Kansas State got involved late, and he considered Murray State (which creates a fascinating “what if” for his career if he had played with Ja Morant). Was considered a borderline top-300, three-star recruit and committed to DePaul. He was a bench player in his freshman year, then exploded as sophomore. Won the Big East’s most improved player award, and was seen as a potential high-riser for 2020. He started the year extremely strong, but couldn’t capitalize late as DePaul fell apart in Big East play. He was ultimately named second-team All-Big East, and decided to declare for the draft. He was also two-time All-Academic Big East. It was probably the right call, given that DePaul continues to be a mess. Not sure there is anything else he could have done there.


STRENGTHS: Big strength for Reed is his athleticism and the way it translates to the NBA court. He’s 6-foot-9 with a 7-foot-2 or so wingspan, and he pairs it with all sorts of twitch. His reactivity is insane, and it manifests itself in a ton of deflections, forced turnovers, and blocked shots. But beyond that, he also has a lot of body control. Those are the numbers that have driven the analytics push behind Reed in some circles. Only one other player has posted at least 1.9 steals and 2.6 blocks per game in high-major college basketball over the last two decades, and that was Nerlens Noel who was on his way to being the No. 1 overall pick before an injury derailed his freshman season.
He’s active on defense. He rotates from the weak side very quickly and catches guys driving toward the rim by surprise. Even if you beat him on a drive, he’s so quick in recovery that he catches guys from behind with a block. Definitely more of a swatter than a guy who plays solid positionally with verticality. Then in space, he can really slide his feet due to monstrous lateral quickness. He keeps his long arms extended and makes himself look enormous. He blocks a ton of jump shots, and deflects passes directly in front of him regularly. DePaul ran a bad hard hedge defensive style that often took him out of position, but he’d recover into plays all the time and make his presence known with his foot speed. Got a ton of pokes away with the ball on those hard hedges. Always looking to jump passing lanes. He has all the athletic tools to be a good, multi-positional defender out on the perimeter in the NBA. Finally, does a good job chasing and high-pointing rebounds.
Has some real driving ability out of face-ups. You don’t want him dribbling more than twice, but his body control really shines in these environments. Can pull off spin moves and Euro steps with ease. Loves the up-and-under finish where he contorts his body and gets around the rim protector. Given the degree of difficulty on his attempts at the basket, and that only 50 percent of them were assisted, it’s remarkably impressive that he made 63 percent of his shots at the basket in half court situations according to Synergy. But in addition to that body control, also has some real lift to finish above the rim off two feet. You pop him in the dunker spot, he’s going to finish if he gets a lane to the basket.


WEAKNESSES: The thing that I don’t think I buy, that some do, is the jumper. His mechanics are a mess. The ball gets released when he’s on his way down from his jump, and the rhythm is completely off. His balance on the jumper looks bad and he flies forward. This is the opposite of a quiet jumper. Sometimes he lands like it’s a leaner, other times he lands like it’s a fadeaway. The ball comes out relatively clean, but there is a hitch at the top. Has a long way to go here. Made 30 percent from 3 and has some confidence taking them, but I’m not sure I believe that it’ll get there. This is a problem also because he wasn’t a particularly efficient player in ball-screens last year. Wasn’t great as a roller toward the rim despite his finishing, and wasn’t a shooter. He needs to prove that he can make an impact in this all-important set.
Second, he often chooses the difficult over the easy play. Often makes the wrong read at the expense of trying to do something spectacular. Turns it over a ton because he tries to do way too much as a ballhandler. NBA stars will get driven crazy playing with him at times because he’s just all over the place everywhere. Pretty consistent 1-to-2 turnover guy, and doesn’t really make the available passes that are there. You could make the case that it was because his teammates were bad he thought he needed to do it all, but I’m not sure I buy it given how egregious some of the choices he makes are. Just needs to play a generally more solid game.

While he’s certainly an impactful defender, he has a lot of work to do positionally and in terms of his footwork. He’s wildly overaggressive and a constant riverboat gambler. Takes himself out of position in a way that smarter players in the college level often took advantage of, and that NBA players will eat alive. In college, his athletic tools and the court’s relative shrunken nature allowed him to make mistakes and recover. The NBA court and players are much less forgiving of freelancing where he totally loses his man. There is a real chance that he drives his coach absolutely crazy early on. And out in space, his feet are just all over the place. Poor closeouts because he either flies by going for a block or because he doesn’t close out far enough. It’s teachable, and he has the tools to do it. But it’s a problem. Finally, he has a tendency to get caught in screens both away from the ball and on the ball. Run a Spain pick-and-roll, and he’s getting caught up and taken out of the play. Generally plays off of instinct and needs to learn the nuances of what teams are running.


SUMMARY: I don’t know what to do with Reed. The athletic tools are insane. He moves like a high-level NBA player does. His body control mixed with the quick twitch nature of his reactions allows him to impact the game. It’s telling that DePaul was actually a passable team when he was on the floor last year, and was just a disaster when he was off it. Think about this. Per Pivot Analysis, DePaul was six points better than their opponents when Reed was on the court. When he was off the court, they were a whopping 21 points worse than their opponents. It can’t be overstated how much of a disaster the situation around him was. But it also can’t be overstated how frustrated NBA coaches are going to be trying to break many of the habits he has on both ends of the floor. And there is a very real question if he can make an impact offensively if the shot doesn’t come given that he’s a poor decision-maker. Still, he’s clearly on an upward trajectory as a player given where he came from in high school in Florida. I think I’d be comfortable betting on him with a guaranteed contract in the second round, but I don’t know that I’m quite there on the first-round upside that many think he has. If he gets in the right situation, there is some real difference-maker upside given his switchability. He could legitimately morph into a monster. He has as much upside as any second rounder. But he might be so far away that I don’t know if I’d want to be the first team to have him, either, while he works through his fundamentals (similarly to Christian Wood).

GRADE: Second rounder, worth a guaranteed contract bet