hopefully this Biden confidence doesn’t turn into a Morey-Jimmy Butler situation PA better go blue or else immediate slaps for the whole Biden team...
Looking at Fox News map, it seems that all the blue counties in Georgia have been counted. I would venture to say that Trump is going to win Georgia by a razor thin margin, unless some additional votes will be announced in the next few hours.
It dwindled from a 5 pt lead to a 1.9 pt lead going from 85% reporting to 89% reporting. I mean the current rate looks really comfortable for Biden but I guess anything can happen. 2020.
There are still more votes outstanding. Honestly it could go either way and the winner will only win by a few hundred to 1000ish votes. We're in recount territory so Georgia will go on for a while. Bigger change is that Perdue fell below 50% so its a near lock that both Georgia Senate races will go to a runoff in January.
The most votes they have turned with a recount was about 2k in the Gore Bush election I guess. Usually it is said to only change up to hundreds in number. Maybe it's a different beast this time.
My problem with the PA thing is it relies on pollsters that have been soooo off. That’s why o urge caution not to jump the gun
Also keep in mind Trump has been campaigning the entire time he has been President, everything he has done has been geared towards reelection. Most President’s don’t do that for their entire term. Promising things to people in small interest groups work. There are plenty of scoundrels to go around. Marginalized groups are desperate and Trump throws them a promise of a bone.
No one is relying on pollsters at this point. They're watching the percentages from counties as votes come in and Biden keeps outperforming his required percentages. The same thing is happening in Georgia. Biden is getting majorities in some heavily Trump counties there as well. This isn't about polls anymore. This is about looking at raw vote trends of absentee ballots and projecting forward. Each now data dump becomes another data point that further refines your calculation.
