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Texas as a swing state?

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by Invisible Fan, Oct 5, 2020.

  1. biina

    biina Member

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    Whatever you have inhaled seems more dangerous than Covid19
     
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  2. Reeko

    Reeko Member

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    It was after 8 p.m. Tuesday when Hector Martinez came straight from work to an early-voting site near his home, flicked off his headlights and headed inside to cast a ballot.

    Four years ago, the early-voting location nearest his office closed at 5 p.m. most weeknights, making it impossible for Martinez to get there after his evening shift as a maintenance worker. As a result, the wound up waiting in line for nearly an hour to vote on Election Day in 2016.


    “This was much easier,” Martinez, 47, said Tuesday, after voting at the Bayland Park Community Center in southwest Houston. “No line. No problem.”

    Martinez, who voted for former Vice President Joe Biden in the presidential race, is among more than 1.2 million voters who’ve already cast ballots in Harris County, which includes Houston, as of Wednesday evening, nearly surpassing the fast-growing county’stotal turnout from 2016. Experts say the surge in voter participation in the nation’s third largest county almost certainly benefits Democrats and could be the key to flipping Texas from red to blue. And it demonstrates what’s possible when local officials make big investments to make voting easier.

    In 2016, under Republican leadership, Harris County spent about $4 million to administer the elections. After Democrats took control of every countywide office, officials increased the election budget to a staggering $31 million this year.

    That’s allowed election officials to triple the number of early-voting sites in the county of 4.7 million residents. They vastly expanded voting hours so residents like Martinez could come after work. During the final days of early voting, some locations will be open 24 hours. And officials also opened 10 drive-thru voting sites across the county, making it possible for residents worried about the coronavirus to cast ballots from the safety of their cars.

    As a result, more Harris County residents have voted early this year than ever before.

    “What we're seeing is, when you build it they come,” said Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo, the county’s top elected official, who is the first woman and the first Latina to hold the job. “We’ve learned that we can't blame the historic lack of participation on the voters themselves. It's been these obstacles.”

    Brandon Rottinghaus, a political scientist at the University of Houston, said these changes could have profound implications for Tuesday’s presidential election. Polling shows an unusually tight race in Texas, with some election forecasters now labeling the once-solidly Republican state as a toss-up. If Biden is going to beat President Donald Trump and become the first Democrat to win Texas since 1976, Rottinghaus said, it’s going to take unprecedented turnout in big urban and suburban communities like Harris County, the most populous county in the state.

    “Harris County is the tip of the spear for Democrats in Texas,” Rottinghaus said. “It needs to be leading turnout to be able to offset some of the Republican strongholds in rural parts of the state. Basically, Texas doesn't flip if Harris County doesn't have supersized turnout.”

    He estimates at least 1.5 million voters need to turn out in Harris County for Democrats to have a reasonable shot at winning Texas. With another two days left of early voting, it’s possible the county could hit that total before Election Day.

    “I mean, not to be cliché, but elections have consequences,” Rottinghaus said, referring to 2018, when Hidalgo and other Democrats won county offices in Harris County. “And when you start to make policy changes that lead people to participate more, you're going to see a different type of voter come to the polls. So, that's exactly what we're seeing.”

    Not everyone has welcomed the changes. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, issued an order in October limiting counties to only one drop-off location for absentee ballots, forcing 11 other sites across the sprawling Harris County to be closed. And the Texas GOP waged an unsuccessful legal battle to force Harris County to close its drive-thru voting sites. Leading state Republicans also sued unsuccessfully to block Abbott’s order allowing counties to add six additional days of early voting during the pandemic.

    Hidalgo pointed out that voters in Republican-leaning precincts in northern Harris County have also benefited from the changes.

    “As far as our investment, it's simply about participation for all voters,” she said.

    The sweeping expansion of voting options in Harris County followed embarrassing headlines just seven months ago during the Democratic primary election here, when dozens of Houston voters were stuck waiting in line for nearly six hours — some until 1 a.m.

    Much of the credit for the turnaround has gone to Harris County Clerk Chris Hollins, who was appointed to the position in June. Hollins, 33, a graduate of the Yale Law School and the Harvard Business School, assembled a team to study what went wrong in March and what it would take to fix it.

    That led to the plan to vastly expand early-voting locations and hours, and to rely on data to better distribute voting machines to the areas with the largest turnout. In August, Hollins’ office put out a call for 11,000 election workers to carry out his ambitious plans. In what some experts have taken as a signal of voter enthusiasm in Harris County, more than 29,000 people applied.

    “None of this works without people who are engaged,” Hollins said.

    As they rolled out plans, Hollins was most concerned about finding ways to make voting easier for people with difficult work schedules. Data shows that a disproportionate number of Harris County residents who show up to vote after 5 p.m. are Latino, possibly because they are more likely to work in service jobs.

    Latinos have also historically been less likely to vote in Texas.

    That’s why, beginning Thursday, Hollins' plan calls for eight of the county’s 122 early-voting sites to remain open for 24 hours.

    “That's to allow every single voter who needs to, whether they’re shift workers at one of the plants or factories around town, whether they are working in our Texas Medical Center to save lives during this pandemic, or whether they're working at a grocery store, stocking shelves at 2 or 3 in the morning,” Hollins said. “We're going to give every single voter an opportunity to cast their ballot at a time that's convenient for them.”

    James Childress, 73, appreciates the effort. Late Tuesday evening, he walked over to an early-voting site near his home and was able to cast a ballot within minutes. Childress, a Black housekeeping worker at a veterans hospital, was relieved he didn’t have to rush home after work to get in line like he had to in past elections.

    “Nothing was going to stop me from voting this year,” Childress, who cast a ballot for Biden, said. “But I’m glad that the powers that be are working to make it a little bit easier for all of us.”


     
  3. Reeko

    Reeko Member

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    some Republicans still value Democracy...these will be the “shy Biden voters”
     
  4. nacho bidness

    nacho bidness Member

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    The 127k drive thru ballots they want to trash is going to be heard by a federal judge next.
     
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  5. Genesis

    Genesis Member

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    I guess this case is underway.
     
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  6. nacho bidness

    nacho bidness Member

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    Apparently the judge denied their request. Seems he was more upset about the timing than actual voting rights though. I imagine they will just take it to a higher court if there is one.
     
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  7. aurocketfan

    aurocketfan Member

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  8. Reeko

    Reeko Member

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  9. Reeko

    Reeko Member

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  10. Reeko

    Reeko Member

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    GOP is a sinking ship led by Trump

    bluenami 2020
     
  11. RayRay10

    RayRay10 Houstonian

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  12. Reeko

    Reeko Member

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    c’mon America, let’s get this turd out of office
     
  13. conquistador#11

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    Biden is winning Williamson county, 95% of the votes in. That one deserves that Harden gif.
    In disbelief like The view going blue in 2018. Still a gazillion counties left but pretty cool.
     
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  14. RedRedemption

    RedRedemption Member

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    I'm happy to have moved here lol
     
  15. conquistador#11

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    Prediction was all the big counties in TX worth a damn will be Blue and then the rural areas will do what they do.
     
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  16. Astrodome

    Astrodome Member

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    My county is big and worth a damn. Not blue. Get over yourself.
     
  17. tallanvor

    tallanvor Member

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    Another year and another wiff
     
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  18. HROZ

    HROZ Member

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    Yea seems turnout was up for all demographics except Black voters?
     
  19. davidio840

    davidio840 Member

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    “If you have a problem figuring out whether you're for me or Trump, then you ain't black”
     
  20. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Member

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    www.dallasnews.com /news/elections/2020/11/03/republicans-appear-poised-to-hold-on-to-majority-in-texas-house/
    Republicans appear poised to hold on to majority in Texas House

    AUSTIN — Republicans appeared poised to remain in control of the Texas House after Democrats fell short in battleground races across the state.

    Though some tight races were still too close to call, Democrats were further behind than expected in key races in Collin, Tarrant and Harris counties that they needed to win to take the majority in the Texas House.

    Democrats needed a net gain of nine seats in the chamber, and those wins did not appear to materialize Tuesday night.

    Some of the biggest shifts may come in the Houston area, where two incumbents were trailing as of 10:30 p.m. Republican Mike Schofield narrowly led freshman Rep. Gina Calanni, D-Katy, according to unofficial results. Republican Rep. Sarah Davis of West University Place was behind Democratic challenger Ann Johnson.

    While Democrats largely defended the gains they made in Dallas County two years ago, leading in all five of those seats by 10:30 p.m., their races to bump off the remaining two GOP incumbents in the county remained close.

    State Rep. Morgan Meyer held a razor thin lead over his Democratic opponent Joanna Cattanach with about 92,000 votes counted. His fellow Dallas County GOP Rep. Angie Chen Button also led her Democratic opponent Brandy K. Chambers by an even slimmer margin with almost 66,000 votes counted.

    Both races were rematches from two years ago where the Democratic candidates vowed to finish the work they started in 2018. The races were also crucial to the Democrats' plan to win the Texas House.

    For the Democrats, state Rep. John Turner, a moderate who flipped the traditionally Republican House District 114 two years ago, held a strong lead over GOP challenger Luisa del Rosal.

    In closely watched races in Collin County, Republican Jeff Leach was leading Democratic opponent Lorenzo Sanchez with about 90,000 votes cast. But Republican Matt Shaheen held a minimal lead over Sharon Hirsch with more than 80,000 votes cast in that race. Those two races had been considered bellwethers of which way the Texas House would go because Democrats gave Leach and Shaheen unexpectedly close calls two years ago.

    Tarrant County races
    In Tarrant County, Republicans looked poised to beat back the noisy challenge by Democrats.

    In House District 92 — covering Hurst, Euless and Bedford — Republican Jeff Cason was leading Democrat Jeff Whitfield with more than 74,000 votes counted in the race. The two candidates were vying to replace the seat left open by Jonathan Stickland, a conservative firebrand who eked out a win against a poorly funded Democrat by less than 1,500 votes in 2018.

    The Democrats were also targeting the open seat in House District 96 in south Tarrant County where Mansfield Mayor David Cook, a Republican, was leading Democrat Joe Drago in a race to replace state Rep. Bill Zedler.

    GOP incumbents Craig Goldman, Matt Krause and Tony Tinderholt also looked on track to hold off their Democratic opponents Elizabeth Beck, Lydia Bean and Alisa Simmons respectively.

    In Denton County, Democrat Michelle Beckley was leading Kronda Thimesch, a Republican who was pushing for the party to take back the seat it lost in an upset two years ago.

    Denton State Rep. Lynn Stucky, a Republican, was also leading in his race against Democrat Angela Brewer in House District 64.

    Houston Democrat Jon Rosenthal, who had upset a Republican two years ago to win House District 135, was narrowly leading Republican Justin Ray in a very close race.

    Republican Lacey Hull was narrowly leading Democrat Akilah Bacy in a tight race to replace outgoing state Rep. Dwayne Bohac in House District 138. Bohac opted not to seek re-election following a margin of victory of less than 50 votes two years ago.

    Democrats also targeted two seats in Fort Bend County that Republicans were leading late Tuesday night. In an open seat for House District 26, Republican Jacey Jetton outlasted Democrat L. Sarah DeMerchant. And in neighboring House District 28, Republican Gary Gates was leading Democrat Eliz Markowitz for the second time this year and appeared to be on his way to represent the district in next year’s legislative session.

    Gates won a special election in January to replace long-time State Rep. John Zerwas, a Republican who stepped down to take a job as a health executive with the UT System.

    Democrats were also leading in two Central Texas seats they had flipped two years ago. State Rep. Erin Zwiener in Hays County was leading Republican Carrie Isaac, and Austin State rep. Vikki Goodwin was ahead in her race against Republican Justin Berry, an Austin police officer who ran his campaign as a referendum against the liberal policies of the city’s Democratic leadership.​
     
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