Did anyone see the TV ad Trump recently released that shows Biden from 40 years ago talking about dealing with violent people and there were like 4 black people saying Biden is against them? What do you think? If I felt like that was still the Biden in play today, then I might raise an eyebrow. But, considering how Trump comes across, he's said worse.
@NewRoxFan Obama is 6'1''. He's over 30 years old. He's shooting 100% from 3. I think the Rockets have found their new starting center.
All of those republicans are not voting for Trump, so that data point can be misleading. I am shocked that people are just taking that at face value.
I actually went to the targetsmart website so I get it. Their explanation as to why it should be close regardless because it should amount to about a 2pt difference over 2018. I still find it demoralizing that more Dems haven't voted when so many marbles are on the line.
This isn’t the Republican Party I know. This new thug party is full of vitriol and chaos. It’s well was poisoned by Trump. Study world history or just read the Stern Titelstory published in 2017, it’s coming true right before our very eyes! This is how the Nazi party started out. https://m.faz.net/aktuell/feuilleto...gt-donald-trump-mit-hitlergruss-15166547.html
Modeling from FiveThirtyEight shows that Trump is “slightly favored” to win Texas, in 66 of 100 scenarios run by analysts at the outlet. TargetSmart, a national Democratic group, said data show "Texas is in play," and that the electorate this year is at least 2% more Democratic than the electorate in the 2018 election. That year, Sen. Ted Cruz defeated Democratic rival Beto O’Rourke by 2.6 percentage points. Statewide, voters who most recently participated in a Republican primary have about a 350,000-vote advantage over those who did so in a Democratic primary, according to Derek Ryan, a Republican voter-data expert in Austin. But about 3.5 million early voters didn’t participate in either party’s primary. “That leaves a huge chunk of the early voters that I just don’t know about,” he said. I’m also looking at all the 1st time youth voters in the 18-29 demographic...the increase in that voting block is enormous, and Democrats win that demographic handily all over the country including in TX I have my fingers crossed this election with TX...even if it doesn’t turn blue this year, I think it’s only a matter of time
I've worked with the Targetsmart folks. They're very smart but I think even they would acknowledge that modeled party ID in Texas is going to have a high margin of error. I used to work in Texas elections (although that was over a decade ago at this point). Modeling Texas partisanship is a combination of reviewing primary voting history, election turnout history, survey responses, demographic data, and using other propensity models. It is riddled with error because all of that stuff can shift and in Texas's case, the variables are shifting rapidly. For example, a white male (with some Republican primary history) in a suburban neighborhood in Collin County will probably model as a solid Republican. But Collin County has gone from +30 for Romney in 2012 to +3 for Cruz in 2018. The county has grown but there was a vote shift among even the most solidly "modeled" Republican voters (while male Gen X voters). And the problem is that the shift is happening so rapidly that its impossible for you to update your models to keep up. Over time you can modify your variables as you learn why voting behavior is shifting but its happening too quickly at the moment and the turnout models are worthless right now because Texas is going to break records in terms of voter turnout. This isn't Nevada where you can look at party registration and make decent assumptions about who people are voting for. Modeled partisanship only works when voting habits and turnout are relatively stable (which has been the case in Texas at the presidential level for some time) but its really started to shift rapidly over the last four years. Basically TLDR, don't bother trying to guess how people are voting in Texas. If 2018 was any indication, Democrats all the way down the ballot outperformed the polls by a healthy margin. And I'm sure Targetsmart could not have modeled that election correctly and I dont think its fair to think they'll be successful this time either.
