yes i was sorta reflecting on both campaigns this morning with my extra hour of daylight savings time. i think despite the stuff you say I think it was about even overall. the story was the virus and trump had the lead before that. crazy to think he blew it in last 6 months. the civil unrest ended in a tie probably slight edge to biden. the comments about military being losers was a big one too. repugs were able to make biden look old that was a win for them. you have to remember as well an incumbent has an edge. trump did all he could with virus and incumbent edge to squander that.trump had a chance mid virus begin in march to be like cuomo and unify. trump had free air time and he could have been the voice of reason as a leader. it shows hes not a leader. thats what a smart incumbent would do too
Was Trump being sarcastic when he said we won't have heat or air conditioning if we elect Biden? Trump will say anything to get re-elected. Truth has nothing to do with it.
How much easier is it to run for an office if you don't care one slight bit if what you say is a lie...
For the first time, I’m voting Democrat this year. I’ve been voting Republican since 1992 just because it was my family’s party affiliation. I even voted Trump in 2016 just because I liked my party. However... I no longer recognize this new Republican Party and what it’s become. It’s no longer same party anymore in the 3.5 years Trump has been its leader and spokesperson. My parents will still be voting for Trump this year, but myself and my 4 siblings and their husbands/wives are voting Biden. Awkward Thanksgiving this will be. Something has to change. I honestly do not recognize what this country has become under Trump. So full of hatred, vitriol, conspiracy theories, but especially the hate part. People storming town halls with guns, running campaign buses off the road, voters with children being pepper sprayed. I don’t want my 3 kids growing up in a country so full of hate. It’s like societal genocide what is happening to our country. Too much hate.
I don’t necessarily agree that the polls are showing momentum for Trump. Florida and basically all the swing states have been shockingly consistent for months now. There is data out of Florida though that turnout is way down in Miami Dade which is a concern, there are gains made with Latinos, and then there is Ron Desantis who is the hack of all hacks running that state. Those three are concerns but they don’t speak to a polling break for Biden. Florida has consistently been averaged at about a 1.4% advantage for Biden. Even though Biden has the advantage, those three concerns with turnout, Latinos shifting slightly, and voter suppression should absolutely concern Dems and that 1.4% advantage might not be enough to win that state. I would say with the things working in the Dems advantage in Texas and Georgia, that even though Trump has a slight polling advantage, Biden has about a good a chance winning Texas and Georgia as Trump has winning in Florida.... which scares the crap out of the GOP obviously.
Yeah but if you cherry pick just the right data points there's a chance that instead of basically being wrong for 5 months, @rocketsjudoka could be less wrong. Think big picture man.
Morning Joe, so take it with suitable grains of salt, was reporting the other day that mail-in ballots in FL by party registration are showing Republicans making up a lot of ground on early Democratic returns. As noted Biden appears to be underperforming in Miami-Dade. All of those are troubling signs for Biden. Also just to note that polls were off not just in 2016 but also in 2018 that showed going into election day a good lead for Gillum and Crist. Both ended up losing.
There's also data showing the overwhelming majority of early votes in Texas are by republicans. It's based on modeling which is not an exact science though. It does not paint a great picture none the less.
This guy, so Trump will be at 280 electoral votes before all votes are counted and before a major news organization calls the race. Not even Faux News will call anything unless their stats guys know with reasonable certainty the loser has no mathematical chances.
Your right, but my point, which I think you agree with, is that the polling is only representative when all other things are equal. As noted, Gillum polled about where Biden is and lost due to much of those Red State factors that Florida has that adjust the polling average to a point or two in favor of Republicans. I’d say Biden has about a 50/50 shot in Florida which isn’t inspiring much hope about winning it although there’s sooo many reasons for Biden to be still putting a ton of energy into the state because what it would mean to win on election night early for the country. On Texas I think there are factors working in the opposite direction in favor of Biden in a state where he’s polling a point or two below 50%. I think Republicans’ plans for mail in should backfire. Our state actually relies pretty heavily on rural small towns voting by mail. We see it every year where everyone gets excited because the Dems are up early and then John King and Steve Kornaki look up the large number of absentee votes to come in from rural counties and put a wet blanket on Texas. Them significantly limiting mail in voting could be what actually helps Dems who are voting in person because there wasn’t really a choice.
You really think Trump has the momentum? Other than the Iowa poll, nothing much has really changed. In fact, Silver updated his battleground states with the latest NYT pool and Biden's numbers went up, albeit it fractionally. This is a very stable election other than the outliers now and then.
Don't get me wrong I'm not saying for sure that Biden will lose FL just that I wouldn't count on FL. The Biden campaign should definitely put energy into FL. If he wins it Trump's road to victory start's looking like a footpath in the mountains. As for TX I agree there are many factors that are in Biden's favor and I've said this before that the GOP strategy of cracking down on mail-in votes could backfire with both rural voters but also military votes. Even with all of that I would count on TX even less than FL. Winning TX would really be the icing on the cake and at that point it's virtually impossible for Trump to win.
