u go brave the elements to worship a politician and then get left stranded in the cold while smart people were at home relaxing sad
+17 is shocking so 538 did an article about it this morning. It's actually a trend in the midwest. Lots of word but ---> the big late OCT surprise is COVID, even though it's 10M old. https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...-new-wisconsin-poll-that-has-biden-way-ahead/ What might be going on here? Well, Biden has led in some of these states for a while, but it’s also possible that Trump could be losing support in the Midwest due to the recent spike in COVID-19 cases there. Much of Wisconsin is currently a hot spot; on Tuesday, the state reported more new cases (5,262) and deaths (64) than any other day of the pandemic. The same day, Iowa and Minnesota announced a record number of hospitalizations, and cases are on the rise in Michigan as well. Nationally, the coronavirus is a losing issue for Trump — 58 percent of Americans disapprove of his handling of the pandemic, on average, compared with just 40 percent who approve — and Wisconsin is no different. According to ABC News/Washington Post, Trump’s net disapproval rating on his handling of the coronavirus in Wisconsin is -20 percentage points — double what it was in mid-September. And 63 percent of registered voters there say they are worried about catching COVID-19. What’s more, Biden leads by a whopping 75 percent to 22 percent among members of this bloc who say they are likely to vote. As recently as Saturday, Trump said at a rally in the Milwaukee suburbs that the pandemic was winding down. But that’s clearly not the case in Wisconsin, or in these other Midwestern states that Trump probably needs in order to win reelection. (There’s almost a 20 percent chance that one of Wisconsin, Michigan or Minnesota will provide the decisive electoral vote, and Trump has a less than 1 in 100 chance of winning if he fails to carry Iowa.) The surge of illness in the region is obviously bad news, first and foremost, for the impact it has on people’s lives. But for an incumbent president widely seen as having failed on the issue of the pandemic and facing reelection in less than one week, it’s also terrible timing politically. ... That said, ABC News/Washington Post is definitely an outlier; no other poll has shown Biden with that large a lead in Wisconsin since June. (Then, it was a Hodas & Associates poll sponsored by the conservative Restoration PAC that put Biden 17 points ahead.) On the other hand, this poll doesn’t exactly exist in a vacuum. Biden has recently gotten a lot of very strong polls from some of the states that border Wisconsin. To wit: RABA Research was out with a poll yesterday showing Biden at 50 percent and Trump at 46 percent in Iowa. Last week, the A+ pollsters Monmouth University and Siena College/The New York Times Upshot found similar margins. Iowa, remember, is a fairly red state that Trump carried by 9 points in 2016. And for the first time, our forecast now gives Biden a better chance than Trump of winning the state, although it’s still basically a coin flip (Biden’s odds are 51 in 100). Yesterday, Gravis Marketing released a survey of Minnesota in which Biden led Trump by 14 points. Biden’s chances of winning Minnesota have now reached an all-time high of 94 in 100. On Sunday, we also got a Gravis poll of Michigan that gave Biden a 13-point lead. That’s on top of last week’s Fox News poll of Michigan showing Biden 12 points ahead. And this morning, ABC News/Washington Post also released a Michigan poll giving Biden a smaller 7-point lead. Overall, our forecast gives Biden a 94 in 100 chance of winning the Wolverine State.
My wife asked me how I'd react if Biden won Texas. "Stunned disbelief. Not quite like winning the gajillion dollar lottery, but close." I mean, if it were that close, I picture Abbott's people hiring people of color (EDIT: so they can say the Dems were burning Republican ballots) to burn many thousands of paper ballots cast for Biden, the way a foreign embassy burns recently-issued (but not mailed) and -received passports and passport applications if they're in a country that's been invaded (say, the U.S. embassy in Warsaw when the Germans and Russians invaded). Or, when Thor was about to beat Hulk, and the Grandmaster hit the "zap" button so his champion wouldn't lose. The Republicans aren't really hiding this manipulation of votes anymore. It's like hide-and-seek where someone is standing behind a thin tree and you say, "I can see you, you're so obvious." "See what? No, you can't." If Biden wins Texas, I'll be one of those people across the galaxy, dancing and singing, after the Empire lost in "Return of the Jedi". EDIT: But I won't hold my breath.
I read all of the positive poll numbers, but I am still concerned. I have been keeping an eye on 538 national averages, and Biden has been comfortably in a 9-10 point advantage, but I see the gap narrowing. It is currently only 8.4 (51.6 Biden to 43.2 Trump). If this trend continues, and Trump finishes strong again like he did in 2016, we are in trouble. At what point should I really start to worry, if that dwindles to below 7%?
There is credible evidence that the former VP did pretty much everything they impeached Trump for, it's lunacy. How or why Biden became the DNC nominee is puzzling, he's a worse candidate than Hillary was, by far. Only explanation is that Biden will do the DNC's bidding, and he owes them. It's incredible how close the DNC is to winning this election with a guy who has been in hiding almost his entire campaign, and when he comes up for air he usually effs something up. The choices are so clear for each side, and both sides think the other is crazy, and that's pretty much the story of this election.
White House science office says Trump ended COVID-19 pandemic as US hits record cases https://thehill.com/policy/healthca...pandemic-as-us-hits?__twitter_impression=true Posturing and Lies, how much will Americans put up with?
Is it really puzzling? Democrats are clearly focused on bringing America back to normality. At this point Democrats are united from the center all the way way to the progressives. It's a sign of unity to the party. Clearly, they wanted to appoint someone with experience (regardless of the myth that "he has not done anything in 47 years"), rather than go with no experience (someone like Pete Buttigieg) or someone that could potentially scare those in the middle (Bernie Sanders). I disagree with the approach, but hell, here I am on the united front, because Trump politics, is in my opinion, so incredibly dangerous for the future of this country. I want that crazy ass hole out of here and all the bad he brings to this nation. I'm hoping his supporters will settle down over time as well. Regarding worse candidate than Hillary, yeah, I doubt it lol.
Biden said it himself. He's a transition candidate. He's the old neighbor you tell to look out for your house while you're on vacation instead of the drunken party couple next door. He's a means to remove Trumpism and return the country back to a respectable place. He's seen more division and violence in his term than anyone since Nixon and we aren't even at war. Why do you think there isn't even a real 3rd party candidate like Jill Stein running? Because unilaterally far leftist and classic democrats see Trump as an existential threat to the American experiment in democracy.
Where would those votes be coming from and why? In 2016 the vote narrowed way before the last week and because there were many more undecided. Even if all the undecided went for trump it would not be enough to overtake Bidens lead. Who do you think are switching votes at this late in the election?
Rudy Giuliani working with Russian intelligence and Ukrainian officials to peddle disinformation that even Rudy wouldn't touch 18 months ago, in order to discredit Biden, all rehashed by Carlson, Hannity, and Ingraham, is not credible evidence. Like the smoker's lungs become healthier once the habit is abandoned, maybe the human brain has the same reaction when you get it away from the corrosive influence of FOX and conservative radio. Always chances of a relapse, but you gotta try.
I'm not sure that there are necessarily new votes coming in, or people switching over to Trump this last week. I just have a feeling that these polls have a hard time encapsulating all Trump supporters. And even if the polls are accurate, gerrymandering can erase a 6% vote deficit relatively easily. Republicans know they don't have to win the popular vote, it's all about the electoral vote. And they have rigged the game in their favor big time. I still think the Republicans can lose, and hope they will. I just don't think it is going to be as decisive or this landslide that some are predicting. And if it is close, you know damn well the right is going to get the courts involved, who they so conveniently have been hand-selecting aggressively for the last 4 years. I wonder how that will play out? I don't know, maybe I am just paranoid after 2016. I certainly hope I am wrong.
