The f'd up anti-democratic Senate is still the main problem. The smallest 19-20 states by population have 38-40 senators and together have a population the size of California. This gives them at least veto power in DC. The Senate controls the S. Ct which allows 5 unelected people to veto laws passed by the Congress and signed by the President.
The latest poll up on 538 of likely voters has it a dead heat. Looking to see more polls since he fell ill but this is the only one so far.
Trump is the Titanic, he is sinking the GOP. These idiotic Senators need to start putting on some life jackets and looking for an escape. How horrible do you have to be that you’ve caused TX to be a potential loss? That’s almost like California voting Republican.
Voting starts in like 6 days.... this is.... NOT good for the GOP. Even if they squeak by at the president & the Senate level, down ballet Democrats are going to pick up a huge amount of state & judicial seats that could really turn this state's power structure long term. Also if there is a state that pulls the lever on the 25th amendment it'll be Texas and Florida by refusing the certify their electors. Both states are corrupt as hell at the highest level, and if Trump is going to win this election by essentially stealing it, Texas and Florida led by DeSantis and Abbott will be center stage. The goal for Biden will be to win enough other states to where he gets to 270 by avoiding the need for Florida, Texas, and other GOP held states that will refuse to certify. Texas and Florida though hold so many electoral college votes that they could seriously create chaos in December.
Here's the thing. It's a lot of first time voters that were incised enough to start voting so they could vote against Trump. And now they're voters that despise the GOP. It's the sleeping bear that got poked too much. Trump was a bad, short term bet that is going to have long term ramifications. As you said, the Republicans need to start ejecting from Trump's sinking raft.
Historically, which pollsters are more reliable? Is this one of them? I'd like to get my hopes up, but I'm being incredibly reserved after the 2016 election.
538 rates pollsters if you scroll down a bit https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/texas/
In 2016 Trump has a 9 point lead on average with nearly 5% third party. Now on average Trump is only up by around 2% and a smaller percentage of third party. Trump could and probably should still win but the polling is drastically different than in 2016.
I've made my distrust of polls known, but infographics aggregating polls...well that's completely different! https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president? Estimated electoral college votes Our model is updated every day and combines state and national polls with economic indicators to predict a range of outcomes. The midpoint is the estimate of the electoral-college vote for each party on election day. There are also senate and house tabs for their races. Cornyn Poop has an 82% chance rn.
538: Biden chances is now up to 37%. Within striking distance. 538 has the polls at Trump 47.6% to Biden 47.5%, virtually a tie, but has % of winning for Biden at 37% because they also take into account past voting patterns and demographics. The last few polls: Quinnipiac University (10/16-19) - Even Morning Consult (10/11-20) - Biden +1 University of TX (10/13-20) - Biden +3 Data for Progress (10/15-18) - Biden +1 PPP (10/7-8) - Biden +1 Morning Consult (10/2-11) - Trump +2
Baby steps, people. We've had total republican control of the state for how many years now? Trump and Cornyn are safe here this year. Set your sights on more reasonable targets. Democrats could - maybe - take a majority of the Texas House. Which would be a huge win and good for Texas. But that's about as much as we can hope for.
I'm hopeful but pretty reserved about it. I know that team blue is up against a pretty rabid voter base on the other side. We'll see who turns up because first time voters aren't necessarily democrat despite past trends. We're living in historic times.
If Trump only wins by 1-2% points that is a win for the Republican party regarding that they should know at that point they need to change some things. Because if California and Texas are both Dem in 2024 and beyond how they hell do they ever plan on winning the presidency in the intermediate future??
