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Election 2020

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by TheresTheDagger, May 13, 2020.

  1. B-Bob

    B-Bob "94-year-old self-described dreamer"

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    Either it's because everything is about the one guy or they just simply ran out of room. Hmmm. Which could it be?
     
    quaczar and Andre0087 like this.
  2. Andre0087

    Andre0087 Member

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    I've helped a ton of people in my old neighborhood register to vote. Some were confused because the process isn't as easy as it could be here in Texas. All I can say is every vote counts and we all need to help folks that are unfamiliar or just never voted to get in the system and make their voice heard.
     
  3. generalthade_03

    generalthade_03 Contributing Member

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    Bless your heart, now we have more Trump voters right?
     
  4. Andre0087

    Andre0087 Member

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    They can vote for whoever they want as long as it's not a "Commie b*stard."
     
  5. generalthade_03

    generalthade_03 Contributing Member

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    Voting for Biden might as well be voting for the ChiCom bastards, that’s who they want as our president.
     
  6. B-Bob

    B-Bob "94-year-old self-described dreamer"

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    Nice one from vet and national hero Sully. Didn't know he had a political bone in his body.

     
    foh, UTAllTheWay and adoo like this.
  7. Nook

    Nook Member

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    She has incredible charisma. She has little else but that means a lot.
     
    jiggyfly likes this.
  8. UTAllTheWay

    UTAllTheWay Member

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    Good lord...

    That was incredible.
     
  9. Jayzers_100

    Jayzers_100 Member

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    Biden is as moderate as they come. I don’t understand how you can objectively view him otherwise
     
  10. jiggyfly

    jiggyfly Member

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    WOW.

    This is exactly how I feel about the SC nice to see I am not alone.

    Its still a crapshoot but I don't see the SC being in his pocket like some say.
     
  11. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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    [​IMG]

    Last week, the Crystal Ball downgraded the prospects of Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) — we now rate the four-term Maine senator as an underdog against her Democratic challenger, state House Speaker Sara Gideon. Aside from Collins, the only Republican senator running in a Clinton state this year is Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO). Colorado, at least in 2016, voted a couple of points more Democratic than Maine, and Gardner hasn’t had decades to cultivate a personal brand — as Collins has — so we’ve had his race at Leans Democratic since February.

    The picture for Trump is not good in the Centennial State: as of Wednesday, polling aggregates from FiveThirtyEight give Biden a clean 51%-41% advantage. As one Republican operative summed up in July, “Jesus Christ himself couldn’t overperform Trump by double digits.” Senate polling since then has born this out: while Gardner generally performs better than Trump, he often lags his Democratic challenger, former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-CO), by high single-digits.

    Hickenlooper, who has tried to strike a postpartisan tone, was never a darling of the left. Still in late June, he turned back a primary challenge from former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff — who ran as a more strident liberal, and actually placed first at party’s (less binding) caucus — by a 59%-41% vote. Though his 2020 presidential bid went nowhere, Hickenlooper did win reelection in a hostile 2014 midterm, and he was the only Democrat to win statewide in Colorado that year. The former governor has underwhelmed in this race against Gardner, but that ultimately may not matter much in a nationalized contest.

    Gardner scored a significant legislative win this summer with the passage of his Great American Outdoors Act — but on the campaign trail, he’s very much aligned himself with the president. As a result, Gardner receives near-unanimous support from Republicans, but an early September poll from Morning Consult shows him losing Independents — the largest voting bloc, by registration, in the state — by 29 percentage points. Exit polling from 2014 had Gardner carrying the Independent vote 50%-42%.

    The looming Supreme Court confirmation battle could also limit Gardner’s crossover appeal. Though it appears he’ll support Trump’s nominee, judge Amy Coney Barrett, Democrats have worked to define her as an opponent of abortion rights and of the Affordable Care Act. In 2014, Democrats probably overplayed the abortion issue against Gardner — then-Sen. Mark Udall (D) hammered Gardner’s pro-life stances ad nauseam. But with a 6-3 conservative court looking more like a reality, Udall’s former attacks may now seem less abstract. Even before the court vacancy, Gardner’s opposition to the ACA seemed to be hurting his electoral standing. So the coverage of the court hearings may emphasize two issues where Republicans are out of step with the Colorado electorate. This pushes our rating to Likely Democratic and emphasizes, in our ratings, that Gardner is clearly the most vulnerable Republican senator.

    If nationalization looms large in Colorado, Alaska is a state that, politically, seems to march to the beat of its own drum — but it’s also a state that Senate Republicans seem to be worried about. First-term Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) is locked in an increasingly competitive race with Al Gross, an independent who is running as the Democratic nominee. In September, the Senate Leadership Fund — a group allied with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) — invested $1.6 million in the Last Frontier, a tangible sign that the Republicans aren’t taking the race for granted.

    For Republicans to lose in Alaska, they often have to be on the wrong side of a major local issue. Gross’ campaign is pointing to the state’s controversial Pebble Mine project. In recently publicized tapes, the project’s CEO seemed to brag about his connections to local politicians, including Sullivan. Though Sullivan later voiced his opposition to the project, Gross had already featured the issue in his ads.

    Like Gardner in Colorado, the imminent Supreme Court hearings may not necessarily lift Sullivan. Alaska has something of a libertarian streak: though it’s a red state, its residents tend to favor abortion rights, an issue that’s likely to play prominently into both parties’ messaging during the confirmation process. During the last Supreme Court hearing, the Alaska Federation of Natives — in a rare move — announced it opposed the confirmation of now-Justice Brett Kavanaugh. But Sullivan supported Kavanaugh anyway, and another Supreme Court fight could help motivate this key Democratic constituency to turn out (roughly 15% of the state’s population are Alaskan Natives).

    The Gross campaign may have suffered a setback when the state’s ballot design was unveiled. He’ll be labeled as the Democratic nominee — this is technically accurate, as he won that primary, but is somewhat at odds with the “independent Alaskan” he frames himself as.

    Alaska is notoriously hard to poll, but a pro-Gross internal from late September showed the race essentially tied. Sullivan is still the favorite, but we’re not counting Gross out — we’re moving the race to Leans Republican.

    The overall contest for the Senate majority remains highly competitive, but the increasing number of Leans Republican-rated races in our ratings — we now have four, in addition to three GOP-held seats where we favor the Democrats and another two listed as Toss-ups — suggests the possibility that, on a good night, Democrats could make very substantial Senate gains.
    https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/biden-lead-looks-firmer-as-midwest-moves-his-way/
     
  12. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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    Today’s rating changes solidify our belief that the Democrats are better-positioned to net seats this year than the Republicans. We’re shifting a dozen races, all but one in the favor of Democrats.

    The headline changes include shifting a number of Leans Republican districts to Toss-up: the open seat in VA-5 — a central Virginia district that covers the University of Virginia — as well as those held by Reps. David Schweikert (R, AZ-6), Jim Hagedorn (R, MN-1), and Jeff Van Drew (R, NJ-2). In VA-5, former Campbell County Supervisor Bob Good (R) beat Rep. Denver Riggleman (R) at a nominating convention, and now Republicans are concerned that Good is going to kick away the seat against Cameron Webb (D). These are all Trump-won districts where Democrats nonetheless appear to be running strong challenges.

    Schweikert, Hagedorn, and Van Drew all have different problems. Schweikert was hurt by a longstanding ethics investigation that harmed his standing and fundraising. Hagedorn, who only narrowly won a Trump +15 district in 2018 after losing several previous attempts, is locked in a close rematch with veteran Dan Feehan (D), and Hagedorn also has had to deal with a controversy involving taxpayer-funded mailers. Van Drew, who switched parties last year, may see his Trump-won district flip to Biden, and he faces Amy Kennedy (D), who is married to former Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D) of Rhode Island.

    Another red-district Democratic target is the at-large seat in Montana, where 2018 nominee Kathleen Williams (D) may hold a small lead on state Auditor Matt Rosendale (R), who unsuccessfully challenged Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) last cycle. A recent New York Times/Siena College poll actually had Williams up 44%-41%, although the undecideds appeared to be a fairly Republican-leaning group. Still, a Likely Republican rating doesn’t reflect the competitiveness of this seat, so we’re moving it to Leans Republican.

    We just moved Iowa to Toss-up in the presidential race. If the 2018 gubernatorial race there is any indication, even if Trump carries the state by a few points, Joe Biden could very well flip three of the state’s four districts: IA-1, IA-2, and IA-3. Most of the GOP’s strength in Iowa is concentrated in the northwestern IA-4, while its three other districts are more Democratic than the state. Help from the top of the ticket could benefit Democrats in these districts, which is part of the reason we’re upgrading Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D, IA-1) from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, though she still faces a strong challenge from state Rep. Ashley Hinson (R). It may be, however, that the open IA-2 is the hardest hold for Democrats. We now rate all three of these seats as Leans Democratic.

    Three additional first-term Democratic House members move from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic. Several weeks ago, we moved Rep. Jared Golden (D, ME-2) from Toss-up to Leans Democratic on account of his huge financial edge over his challenger, former state Rep. Dale Crafts (R), and Biden’s likely improvement in Golden’s sprawling, Trump-won district. Since then, several polls have indicated that Golden is up by double-digit margins, and we’re upgrading him as a result. We’re also upgrading Reps. Lizzie Pannill Fletcher (D, TX-7) and Lauren Underwood (D, IL-14), both of whom occupy formerly Republican suburban districts where Biden should perform well. Fletcher has a strong challenger, veteran Wesley Hunt (R), who, if he loses, perhaps just picked a poor year to run; Underwood faces a perennial candidate, state Sen. Jim Oberweis (R), who Republicans are not enthusiastic about. In another Democratic-trending Chicagoland district, we’re moving Rep. Sean Casten (D, IL-6) to Safe Democratic, and we’re making the same move in the St. Petersburg/Clearwater seat held by Rep. Charlie Crist (D, FL-13). Neither faces strong opposition and there’s not much reason to think either would lose.

    The one district we’re moving in favor of Republicans is CA-21, held by Rep. T.J. Cox (D). Cox’s Central Valley district backed Clinton by 15 points, but Cox was lucky to beat well-regarded Rep. David Valadao (R, CA-21) in 2018, and Cox has faced questions about his finances and ties to the district. The Democratic tide in the district very well could save Cox, although Republican polling has Valadao up 11 points (this is an extremely difficult district to poll, and Cox’s performance in the state’s top-two primary gives him some reason for optimism, as we wrote after the California primary). This is a Toss-up for now.

    One final note: There is a truly bizarre situation going on in MN-2, a suburban/exurban Twin Cities seat held by Rep. Angie Craig (D) that could impact the rating in her seat.

    There is a law in Minnesota that specifies if a major party candidate dies within 79 days of an election, the election is postponed to a later special election. In MN-2, there was a candidate from a pro-mar1juana legalization party who died recently. This party was specified as a major party because of the performance of one of its candidates in a 2018 statewide race. So as of now, the November election between Craig and Tyler Kistner (R), a veteran running a credible campaign, has been postponed to a February 2021 special election. Craig is suing, arguing that postponing the election would violate federal law. If in fact the November election is postponed, we are moving this district from Likely Democratic to Toss-up, and for the purposes of organizing the House in January, this would at least temporarily count as a Democratic loss (though not a Republican gain). But because of the truly bizarre circumstances, we are not changing the rating yet as we wait for more clarity.

    With these rating changes, we now have 232 seats at least leaning to the Democrats, 188 seats at least leaning to the Republicans, and 15 Toss-ups. Splitting the Toss-ups down the middle 8-7 one way or the other would produce a 4-5 seat net gain for the Democrats compared to the House results two years ago.
    https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/biden-lead-looks-firmer-as-midwest-moves-his-way/
     
    B-Bob and Hakeemtheking like this.
  13. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    Right-wing fraudsters Jacob Wohl and Jack Burkman get criminally charged in election conspiracy

    Right-wing smear artists Jacob Wohl and Jack Burkman will face four counts in an alleged criminal scheme to influence the 2020 election after Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel filed charges on Thursday.

    Nessel accused the pair of intimidating voters, conspiring to break election law, using a computer to commit an election crime, and using a computer to carry out a conspiracy.

    The charges center on a robocall scheme the Nessel said was an attempt to "discourage voters from participating in the general election." According to the press release, the scheme targeted urban areas, including Detroit, and was focused on "areas with significant minority populations."

    Wohl previously denied to CNN that he or Burkman were involved in any robocall schemes.

    "It's believed around 85,000 calls were made nationally, though an exact breakdown of the numbers of calls to each city or state are not available," according to Nessel's office. Similar robocalls reportedly were made in New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, the last two of which are swing states in the presidential election.

    The robocall allegedly attempted to make voters afraid to cast their ballots, telling them to not be "finessed into giving your private information to the man" and that they should "beware of vote by mail." The press release explained:

    "This effort specifically targeted minority voters in an attempt to deter them from voting in the November election," said Nessel. "We're all well aware of the frustrations caused by the millions of nuisance robocalls flooding our cell phones and landlines each day, but this particular message poses grave consequences for our democracy and the principles upon which it was built."

    Burkman and Wohl have made themselves notorious with a series of stunts that included trying to smear former Special Counsel Robert Mueller and former Mayor Pete Buttigieg with bogus and sexual assault allegations.

     
    Nook likes this.
  14. Xerobull

    Xerobull You son of a b!tch! I'm in!

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    It's cool they found the Ark of the Covenant and put it on the table for everyone to see.
     
    Nook likes this.
  15. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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    So basically, the control of the United States senate will remain in republican hands because the leading Democrat in the NC senate race couldn't keep his mind on his own wife...

    U.S. Senate candidate Cal Cunningham admits to sexual texting with California strategist
    https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article246191610.html
     
  16. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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    Meanwhile, his opponent showing despicable disregard for the health of fellow senators by announcing he will shorten his quarantine to 10 days, just to be able to vote for the supreme court nominee.

     
  17. baller4life315

    baller4life315 Contributing Member

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    Whomever leaked this story (assuming they’re right wing) needs lessons on how the news cycles work.

    You don’t leak a nothingburger you intend to propagate as BOMBSHELL material like this same weekend his opponent gets diagnosed with Covid-19.
     
    B-Bob and Hakeemtheking like this.
  18. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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    It was leaked/reported by right wing outlet National File.

    https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/national-file/
     
    baller4life315 likes this.
  19. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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  20. deb4rockets

    deb4rockets Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

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    But.......the Americans want to kick Trump to the curb. He and his Nepotism Barbie and her evil Ken doll Damian husband.
     

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