Anybody here who voted for Trump Switching to Biden?

Not starting any wars is an impressively low bar. Also Trump within his first two years matched Obama's drone strikes casualties in his 8 years in office. The optics were bad enough that Trump threw out the Obama era executive order that publicly released drone strikes casualties.

We know that Trump supporters look down on the entire planet of people who don't like Trump. If you also think we don't like Trump because of naughty words rather than specific policy actions, then you live in a bubble.

 

Everyone needs to read the actual article, some interesting stuff in there.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/09/trump-old-voters-support-biden.html

Biden’s polling strength with seniors, then, is partly reflective of his overall improvement in standing among white voters compared with Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton. But seniors, along with college-educated, suburban whites, are one of the demographics where that improvement is particularly pronounced.

Biden has tested well among seniors in hypotheticals against Trump since 2015, when he also mulled a presidential bid. And as a Washington Post analysis in May showed, Biden has led Trump among 65-plus voters throughout the election cycle, and performed consistently better among them versus Trump than his nearest primary competitor, Sen. Bernie Sanders, did.

The Post analysis couldn’t divine from the data a verifiable reason that Biden has a higher floor with white seniors against Trump than Clinton or Sanders did. Is it because he’s perceived as more moderate than the others? Because he’s a moderate white man? Because he says things, in the year 2020, like, “Look, the carny show’s gone through town once, and they found out there’s no pea under any of the three shells”?

Jim Farr would say it’s because of the kind of man he is. Farr, 77, retired to Kissimmee, Florida, from Papua New Guinea, where he worked as a Bible translator, a year ago. He’s a conservative Christian who served in the Army, who believes that abortion is murdering babies, and who couldn’t support Hillary Clinton because she wouldn’t accept responsibility for the 2012 Benghazi attack. Farr voted for Trump, even though he behaved like a “3-year-old.” In November, he told me, he will likely vote for Republicans down-ballot—and Joe Biden for president.

 

https://www.nydailynews.com/opinion...0200921-owpajx4mafamhfka5lbfemlm2q-story.html

Trump’s profound weakness on national security: Why this former administration official is voting for Joe Biden
By KEVIN CARROLL

 

I think a more interesting question is, did anyone who vote for Hillary Clinton going to vote for Donald Trump?

 

I know a couple that have always voted for Democrats that will vote for Trump in 2020. They said that Donald Trump is more of what they think a President should be, that he is strong and powerful and they like that. They also believe he really cares about the working class and the American economy. They both are Mexican and support Trump on some of his immigration positions.

 

From knowing immigrants from South Asia, you see this type of behavior with minority immigrants who suffer from narcissisism. They made it and believe all the others of their ethnicity who haven't are inferior and Trump's rhetoric rings true for them.

Also another thing I've noticed. Ethnic Mexican people who served in the US military tend to be very conservative/right wing. Do they happen to be veterans?

 

Did they vote for Clinton in 2016?

The reason why I ask it and think it's an interesting question is as that one reason why incumbency has power is that there is an inertia built up in the office. For Obama, GW Bush, Clinton, Reagan and nearly every two term president built on their initial victories and so likely got many voters that voted for their opponents to vote for them. I'm wondering if Trump has managed to persuade anyone now that he's been president.

 

Yes, they voted for Clinton in 2016. They don't see it this way, but they basically are attracted to his populism and cult of personality. They do not go to rallies or anything, but they said he is strong and is what they feel a leader should be. They view most prior presidents as too soft when it came to getting things done. The man is from Mexico and came to the USA 30 years ago. His wife I believe was born in the USA. They both have worked hard for their part of the American dream. They own a house in a safe part of town, and their kids are good people.

They are easy going to talk to and they both have told me that white people in the USA do not realize how conservative and traditional Mexican families are. They were democrats (and said they still mostly vote for democrats that are moderate) and said that the democrats have gone too far to the left on issues such as family, political correctness and catering to minorities.

 

I'm assuming the media they consume is also contributing to these views. Do they have a Facebook account?

 

Targeted social media propaganda. That's my explanation for this. Just seeing the vast dumpage of right wing propaganda and memes on my news feed makes me conclude that this is the most likely reason.

 

I don't think they have a facebook account, because if they did I am sure they would have tried to friend me. They are not terribly vocal about there support for Trump. They don't attend rallies or have bumper stickers or signs.

Personally I believe they have always been socially conservative. For example they believe strongly in the nuclear family, they believe that girls should dress conservative, they believe that most of the issues with black people are a result of black people not working hard... they are not especially racist, they have a wide group of friends but they are just very traditional. For example, they do not understand why there are protests, they believe that if everyone didn't resist, no one would be hurt. They are very pro military and believe that Hispanics that want citizenship should join the military for 4-6 years in exchange for citizenship. They do not like when Hispanics do not speak English and said that they should acculturate.

They do not agree with everything Trump says or does, and they admit that he lies but said that he also supports traditional American values and common sense. They like Biden, but said that he is surrounded by radicals. They really dislike Harris and they also are afraid of the call for prison reform.

They are sincere in their beliefs. I have spoken to them many times about political topics over the years. They think that the USA is the greatest country in the world and hard work pays off. Their kids are fairly liberal. They have a son in the military as well. I asked if they were just Republicans now and they said they are not, that they still view themselves as moderate democrats and don't really see Trump as a traditional republican.

While I think their views are simplistic, I will say that they are really good citizens. They have worked hard and have never been in trouble. They have bought a good home in a good part of town and their kids are good people. They are great neighbors. I just think that their views are somewhat short sighted, but I am sure they think I have been fooled as well.

 

Yes but people like them who collectively share these type of sentiments make the country worse so they individually could be doing the right thing but their sentiments expressed through their voting power harms the country more than their individual contributions.

I also am self-aware that if I want to convince them of some of my premises, I can't be so blunt like I am now.

 

I joined the #walkaway facebook group and have been surprised at the number of Hillary voters that have switched and shared their story with the group. Of course it isn't a crazy amount of people but about 2 or 3 people everyday share many paragraphs about their flip.

 

I think there are several things going on.

First, Biden has not gone after the Hispanic vote as he should have. Sanders went HARD after Hispanics and had taken a lot of them away during the primaries.

Second, Biden and the democrats have assumed because of Trump's immigration positions, that Hispanics would not vote for Trump. The problem is that Hispanics are widely different based on their income, their age, status etc.

Third, Florida is full of Cubans. Many of the Cubans in Florida were the wealthy and middle class that supported Batista and are accordingly more conservative and are VERY strong capitalists. Couple that with most of them having been in the USA for 60-70 years and they are less likely to support democrats. Last, there is the fact that Obama had eased restrictions with Cuba and the communists, that upset many Cubans in Florida that supported the restrictions on Castro with the idea that a revolution would happen in Cuba and they would return to their island and rule.

Fourth, the Republicans and Trump have been poking around minority voting blocks to see if they can get any traction. They have tried quite hard at various points with the black community and are doing the same in the Hispanic community. The democrats and Biden need to pour resources and time into the Hispanic community to take some of the voters back.

Fifth, Trump is a populist and that appeals to some people regardless of their background or race.

 

I agree with you, their position on rape for example is very dated... as well as their expectations of the role of husband and wife..... I do not dislike them, but some of their positions I do not like..... and will express that to them.

 

FWIW I don't think we are going to see a lot of Hilary voters switch to Trump. There are going to be some, if for no other reason that Trump is so polarizing. The real question is what is the net difference between "Never vote for Trump again" voters and those that are now Trump supporters after 3-4 years.

 

Not saying there aren’t some but this group and others on Facebook are notoriously bot driven.

I would also challenge the notion of Hillary supporters vs voters. Those who actually cast a ballot vs those that said they supported Hillary that actually didn’t vote are two different voters indeed. So far the data really only shows older Latino voters being the only real demographic that has had a shift towards Trump, but that doesn’t include west coast Latinos who in states like Arizona have actually gained ground in support of Biden.

So are Hillary voters leaving the party for Trump..... ehh ... it’s not that simple. I guess the answer is not really... but maybe in some areas. But you get the right voters in the right areas (ala Florida) and you increase their non voters to turnout for Trump in key states and that MIGHT be enough to offset the gains Biden has made and holds giving Trump another narrow electoral victory.

 

I think the thing for Trump supporters looking for hope to realize is that in polling there is a definite jump since 2016 in the "Definitely will not vote for Trump" category. 5 to 10 points depending on the poll.

So if you are hoping for a Trump victory the things you are probably banking on is Florida being your key battleground state (flipping as many Cuban/Latino voters as you can to win) and turning out non-voters in 2016 who are Trumper profile in Wisconsin, Penn, NC, and yes.... Minnesota.

What's really important to note though in regards to the Latino vote is that Latino voters in Texas are more west-coast like Mexican American Latino than they are Florida Cuban/PR Latinos which are Latino's that Republicans are scared to death of. So there's a real risk that Trump has in Texas if Biden can find a way in the last 30 days to turnout Latinos in Texas with early in-person voting with an increase in suburban & urban turnout.

Texas is in-person for the most part, and the war on mail-in voting really works against usually ruby red areas of Texas that they rely on to run up the score. With areas like Harris county opening up the Toyota Center, and Dallas county turnout looking to put up historic numbers, I think there is a real possibility that Trump under performs in Texas. Right now he has a 2 point lead, but there's a chance his voters underperform slightly and Democratic votes turnout at historic levels.... IF... Biden can make inroad with Texas Latino turnout.

My intuition though is that it's probably too late to convince Texas Latino voters to turnout much more than they already plan to. There are some great voter turnout groups like Powered by the People working overtime here in Texas, but I just haven't seen enough from Biden's camp directly here in TX, but it might not be too late.

 

#walkaway LOL.

Are people really still trying to make that a thing?