I'm not sure what the Lincoln Project is doing is flipping votes. Negative campaigning doesn't always flip voters but it does suppress votes by raising doubts among those who would support a candidate otherwise. They might not bring themselves to vote for the other guy but they might sit out the election.
Don Jr. Did a rally in Duluth yesterday and the organizers did follow social distancing with every other seat and mask. Don Jr. complained about it saying he liked it more crowded.
He's another chip off the old block. Just one of the grifting offspring, who loves selling Daddy's snake oil.
"The latest aggregate polls have Joe Biden (D) with a 51% to 43% lead over incumbent Donald Trump (R)." The tipping point in a national election is usually 50%, because at that point it isn't about getting all the undecided voters, you have to get existing voters to leave the other candidate and that is a lot harder to do. Over the last 80 years only two Presidents have had a worse opinion rating than Donald Trump this late into a term. The two Presidents were Jimmy Carter and George HW Bush. That isn't good for the President at all. There is some good news for President Trump. While other battle ground states like Michigan and Wisconsin and Arizona have drifted farther towards Biden, Florida has done the opposite and is starting to become Trump's to lose and also Pennsylvania remains a toss up. I believe Florida will go to Trump. He will provide a lot of resources to the state. I also believe he holds onto Georgia, Ohio and Texas. Michigan, Arizona and Wisconsin I believe will all go to Biden. The two states that really will be in play will be North Carolina and Pennsylvania. I have heard rumblings of Trump thinking that he can get Oregon and Minnesota..... if he carries Minnesota I think he carries Wisconsin. I personally do not think he gets either one. This presidential election may be the last one where we see Texas go "red" for awhile.... I can also see states like Wisconsin and possibly one of the NE states start voting "red". If Texas goes "blue", the Republicans will be in a lot of trouble when it comes to Presidential elections for awhile. Trump almost has to win North Carolina, Pennsylvania and pick off a state like Arizona to win.
I am calling it...... as Biden 270 over Trump 268..... with Arizona being the deciding state. Trump gets Florida, Ohio, South Carolina, Pennsylvania, NC..... and loses Virginia. Trump looks very strong early in the night, and late in the night........ Biden takes, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan......... and early in the morning takes Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and then Arizona to reach 270. Biden wins the popular vote by 5-6% and demands that Trump to concede and he refuses to and demands hand recounts in Virginia and he and Barr claim that Virginia should have gone to Trump based on their manual recount (which includes disqualified ballots being counted and ballots counted before being disqualified) Biden responds by wanting recounts in North Carolina and Pennsylvania and claims North Carolina should have gone to Biden. The President moves to restrict the access Biden has to the ballots. The military stays out of it........ huge numbers of white people take to the streets and ultimately it ends up in Roberts lap, who sides with Trump and the USA is split on the issue.
This is the first I'm hearing about Oregon and I'm guessing that probably has a lot to do with issues in Portland. That said Eastern Oregon has always been one of the most conservative parts of the country while Western Oregon the opposite. If Trump thinks he can win OR that means that some of Western Oregon will go to him and I'm not sure where that is. Portland even with how bad it is I don't see how that will go red. Eugene, Corvalis, Salem have a hard time seeing Trump winning any of those. In Minnesota it's going to be close. Spending time in rural MN I saw many Trump - Pence signs, although I did see a couple of Biden - Harris signs. That hasn't been much different than the last election. Where Trump really feels he has a chance is in North MN the Iron Range which at one time had been a DFL stronghold (Democratic Farmer Labor what the MN Democratic party is called). The "F" and the "L" in the last ten years have largely dropped out as the "L" was very much the Iron Range mining support. That region like other rural regions in the country has become red primarily because of social issues and as older Democrats who once represented the region have retired or passed away. That said suburbs which were Republican have become more blue and in 2018 two long GOP held suburban districts flipped blue and are not likely to go back to red. The Trump campaign strategy is to run up the score in rural areas with winning smaller cities like Duluth and then hoping there are still enough GOP voters left in the Twin Cities suburbs. It could work but my own read is that with the suburbs going blue and still enough DFL support in small cities like Duluth and Mankato Biden will win MN.
Probably...... I am being tongue in cheek. Still, I do expect a very close electoral college result and I do not expect Trump to simply give up the night of the election as a result.... I think there will be a court battle. If Biden is able to carry states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina, then we will see the Democrats route Trump in the EC and he may call Biden the winner.
WI is demographically similar but not geographically the same as MN. MN is dominated by the Twin Cities where almost two thirds of the population live. WI is more spread out. There are population centers in the SE around Milwaukee and near IL also in Madison but there are a lot of small to medium sized cities spread out through the state. Obviously Milwaukee and Madison are very blue but the suburbs around Milwaukee are more of a mixed bag. Both Paul Ryan and Scott Walker are from the Milwaukee suburbs. Western WI has Hudson which is now a suburb of the Twin Cities. It was previously reliably red but wouldn't surprise me if it goes blue. Northern WI has Superior which forms a mini Twin Cities with Duluth. That area has been red but when I went through there two weeks ago was surprised to see a few Biden - Harris signs. Not sure where other places like Eau Claire, La Crosse and Green Bay are politically. My guess is those are red but are mixed enough to carry the state for Biden.
Yes, I agree with your assumption is that Trump believes places like Oregon will either be so angry at the protests that they vote for Trump or they stay home and do not vote for Biden. I still find it odd because IMO if Trump wins Oregon then he is winning states like Wisconsin and Minnesota and Pennsylvania anyway and does not need Oregon. I also agree with you on Minnesota. It isn't a "given" that Biden wins it. I spend a lot of time in Wisconsin and that state is going to go firmly red in the next few election cycles. A lot of conservatives from places like Indiana and rural Illinois have moved there. It isn't a state that it used to be. Michigan also has had some older conservative retiree's move in..... Right now Trump has to flip a few states to win.... and states like Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Michigan are trending Biden but that can changes. Many of those states are conservative by nature being in the Midwest and they also have serious racial and segregation issues. There is no way to know exactly what voters in those areas will do.
This could happen but I see it with a few differences. I think VA is out of reach for Trump. Given the last few elections and that three of the top elected officials all Democrats had scandals yet none were forced out of office shows that it is firmly Democrat. I don't expect it to be even close enough for a recount. As I said in my recent analysis I think MN stays blue but very well could be close enough for a recount. I think that MN might be one of those states also that we won't know the winner for awhile. I still don't think Roberts will necessarily side with Trump. I think in a situation like Florida 2000 Roberts keeps the USSC out of it and leaves it up to the state. In the case of Florida that would mean either the FL SC pushes for a full statewide recanvas or the FL state legislator stops recounting and declares a winner.
I agree there are demographic changes that might move WI and MN to being red states. In MN though that is balanced out though by the growth of the Twin Cities. In WI Madison is growing rapidly also. My own feeling is that looking at those states as being the new red states is largely because the demographics of the country are changing rapidly in places like TX and AZ so the assumption is that things will balance out somewhat with the upper Midwest getting redder. I'm not sure that's going to be the case. MN, WI, and PA in comparison to TX and AZ will relatively look to be much whiter, older and rural which fit the GOP voting block. That doesn't mean though as they been they are that. Since I've lived in MN the demographics have changed. The Twin Cities is much more diverse and not just because of Somali and Hmong. There are now decent sized South Asian populations in the suburbs and a growing Latino population. Even in rural parts such as near IA there are many communities that have large Latino populations.
To add to my earlier post I still think Trump has about a 30% chance of winning. I may change my opinion the next few days as I think the tapes of him telling Woodward that he knew COVID-19 was bad privately while saying publicly things like it would just disappear could hurt him. Will see how it shakes out. In the long run I think the Republican Party as is is very much in trouble. If the Republican Party continues as a largely white Christian and Nativist party demographics are very much against them. While they are now losing states in the SW and TX could go I don't think states in the Upper Midwest will make up enough. MN could go red this election but I think the long run is it to be a purple state along with WI. IA has been a purple state. I don't know enough about MI and PA but with their large urban centers and affluent suburbs I think they will be purple also than reliably red. The country as a whole is changing getting more diverse and less white and less Christian. I don't know the stats but from what I see the average age of Trump supporters appears to be in the upper 40's. While there are factors that could keep on favoring a populist message of blaming the elites for economic dislocation if that message continues to be tied with an anti-immigrant message and with culture war message the Republican party isn't likely to win too many more national elections.
Only a moderate Democrat would not acknowledge that our president is a clear and present danger... Bob Woodward on a Nightmare Presidency By David Remnick September 10, 2020 If Donald Trump possessed a soul, a trace of conscience or character, he would resign the Presidency. He will not resign the Presidency. Trump is who he has always been, and the details that we learn with every passing day merely fill in the portrait with sharper focus and more lurid colors. The man who lied about the nature of the novel coronavirus to the American people (but confided in Bob Woodward) is the same man who, as a real-estate huckster, used to say that the best way to hype a new building was to “just give them the old Trump bullshit.” Deception is his brand. It is hard to identify a constituency that Trump has not betrayed. A self-proclaimed populist, his greatest legislative triumph was a gargantuan tax cut for the wealthy. (“You all just got a lot richer,” he told his cronies at Mar-a-Lago.) A self-proclaimed champion of the military, he reportedly says “my ****ing generals are a bunch of p*****s” and refers to fallen American soldiers as “losers” and “suckers.” His lies and expressions of contempt are so routine, so numerous, that we grow inured to their gravity and even forget that only recently he was impeached in the House of Representatives, avoiding conviction thanks only to a conscience-free Republican majority in the Senate. Trump’s lack of stability is so pronounced that he inspires nightmares in his closest aides. As we learn from “Rage,” Woodward’s new book, Trump’s defense secretary, James Mattis, was so concerned that the President would set off a nuclear confrontation with North Korea that Mattis slept in his clothes in case he had to race to the Pentagon or the White House in the middle of the night. In his interviews with Woodward, Trump seems so hungry for approbation that, like a child, he spills news of a secret weapons system––“We have stuff that Putin and Xi have never heard about before.” (This weapons system is presumably different from the hypersonic “super duper” missile that Trump hinted at in May.) Read the whole article at the link in the headline.
