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Harden Defensive Win Shares

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by lnchan, Sep 3, 2020.

  1. lnchan

    lnchan Sugar Land Leonard

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    Basketball Reference lists Harden in top 20 in defensive win shares five times:
    2014-15 NBA 4.2 (10th)
    2016-17 NBA 3.6 (18th)
    2017-18 NBA 3.8 (17th)
    2018-19 NBA 3.8 (15th)
    2019-20 NBA 3.2 (16th)​

    Considering this metric, may be influenced by minutes played and such... he was in top 20 four times for defensive +/-:
    2014-15 NBA 1.8 (13th)
    2017-18 NBA 1.4 (20th)
    2018-19 NBA 1.6 (20th)
    2019-20 NBA 1.5 (20th)​

    He won't make all-defensive teams but he is solid despite his reputation ... similar to Lance Berkman at firstbase.
     
  2. Juxtaposed Jolt

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    Is defensive win shares an individual thing, or is it influenced by other factors? (such as who's on the floor with the measured player, etc)
     
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  3. lnchan

    lnchan Sugar Land Leonard

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    Hard to separate individual and team due to schemes I would say...
    https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html
    IV. Crediting Defensive Win Shares to Players
    A. 1973-74 to present NBA
    Crediting Defensive Win Shares to players is based on Dean Oliver's Defensive Rating. Defensive Rating is an estimate of the player's points allowed per 100 defensive possessions (please see Oliver's book for further details). Here is a description of the process (once again using LeBron James in 2008-09 as an example):

    1. Calculate the Defensive Rating for each player. James's Defensive Rating in 2008-09 was 99.1.
    2. Calculate marginal defense for each player. Marginal defense is equal to (player minutes played / team minutes played) * (team defensive possessions) * (1.08 * (league points per possession) - ((Defensive Rating) / 100)). For James this is (3054 / 19780) * 7341 * ((1.08 * 1.083) - (99.1 / 100)) = 202.5. Note that this formula may produce a negative result for some players.
    3. Calculate marginal points per win. Marginal points per win reduces to 0.32 * (league points per game) * ((team pace) / (league pace)). For the 2008-09 Cavaliers this is 0.32 * 100.0 * (88.7 / 91.7) = 30.95.
    4. Credit Defensive Win Shares to the players. Defensive Win Shares are credited using the following formula: (marginal defense) / (marginal points per win). James gets credit for 202.5 / 30.95 = 6.54 Defensive Win Shares.
     
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  4. SuperMarioBro

    SuperMarioBro Member

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    NBA media and casual fans are criminally off base when discussing defense (superstars in general, but especially defense). Harden is as underrated as Kobe was overrated. Still can't believe how many all defensive teams that low-IQ matador was assigned to.
     
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  5. Supermac34

    Supermac34 President, Von Wafer Fan Club

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    It seems as though the narrative has slowly started to shift, right? Harden hasn't been a negative on defense for 3 years...and he's starting to become a slight positive.
     
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  6. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    Defensive Win Shares really isn't a great way of measuring how impactful a player is on defense. A player who plays a lot of minutes on a decent defensive team will have a higher defensive win shares tally.
     
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  7. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    It's mainly three factors: total minutes, team's defensive rating, and a player's individual defensive box score stats (defensive rebounds, fouls, steals, blocks). It doesn't look at who the player is playing with, or what the team does with the player on or off the court.
     
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  8. JW86

    JW86 Member

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    Any numbers for the play-offs?
     
  9. lnchan

    lnchan Sugar Land Leonard

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    More difficult to decipher due to lack of equal minutes for win shares... but defensive +/- in playoffs:

    2009-10 3.3
    2010-11 2.7
    2011-12 0.6
    2012-13 1.2
    2013-14 0.2
    2014-15 1.5
    2015-16 1.3
    2016-17 1.0
    2017-18 1.8
    2018-19 1.7
    2019-20 3.0​

    Best defensive showing in the playoffs since his time with OKC when he was not carrying the offensive load.
     
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  10. francis 4 prez

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    the few times i've looked at the formula, it seemed like about 80% of your total came from how good your team was, and then the other 20% or so came from your defensive stats. so having great defensive teammates makes you look better. presumably why guys like curry and dirk had such ridiculous WS/48, because they had great offensive numbers but then got the defensive credit from their teammates.

    in an overall way, i would think defensive rating underrates defensive big men (gives credit for their impact to the guards) and overrates guards who play on great defenses. not sure what it does with a team like our that switches everything and doesn't have a big man guarding the rim. presumably it's not shifted too much to one player or another.
     
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  11. JW86

    JW86 Member

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    Thanks, is that top of the list among guards you reckon?
     
  12. Nook

    Nook Member

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    This. It is a single measure but not an authority on defense. For example, Steph Curry was a terrible defender but he had solid defensive win shares because of the players around him.

    Harden has been a positive defensively for awhile now. When Harden’s role on offense increased his defense suffered for a bit. Few guards can carry the load offensively Harden has and defend well. Over the last few years since he has had a real second fiddle, his defense has improved. He was average and now is overall a good defender. He still can get beaten to the basket by some players but he overall off sets that with elite post defense and rapidly improved technique and anticipation.... he is usually the third best defender on the floor for the Rockets behind Tucker and Covington.
     
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