People kind of soured on political futures markets as useful around 2008 - or as you call it, 'confirmation bias'
Dems chose a Dogfish Head sipping Amtrak Riding Blue Hen Democrat from tony Scranton PA. Doesn't sit well with Michael Moore.
Thank you Nate Silver. Another astute political observer noted the same thing. https://bbs.clutchfans.net/index.ph...ential-election.304508/page-182#post-13084109 "A lot of things broke for Trump last week starting with that it was the RNC and there is a convention bump."
Right now Trump has about a 1/3 chance of winning the Presidential election. It is like having Tony Gwynn at the plate and needing a base hit. Most likely Gwynn flies out, lines out or grounds out...... but you won't be at all shocked if he singles to left.
after the Lafayette square photo op and subsequent torrent of rebukes by military leaders, I posted a thread on the subject of whether military families would support trump. @generalthade_03 remains staunch in his trump support, but if this data is valid, it represents a major shift. I truly don’t understand how military families can stomach Trump and am not surprised by this.
Nate Silver as of now agrees with this and it's unsettling to think that this was pretty close to the chance he gave to Trump in 2016 on the eve of the election. It's almost as though the last four years of incompetence and corruption along with losing the House haven't changed many minds.
There are a lot of reasons for the military and their families to not support Trump. 1. Taking money away from military daycare to try and pay for the wall. 2. Using the military for the Lafayette Square photo op as you mentioned. 3. Allowing Russia to place a bounty on the heads of our troops and doing nothing to hold them accountable in any way shape or form. 4. Overruling the military justice system in regards to the one Navy personnel who was found to have murdered people and committed war crimes in Iraq. 5. Trump not doing anything about the escalation with Russian troops the other day in Syria. This is only a partial list. That being said, I don't know how much of an effect it will have. It doesn't have to be 50% swing, but a few points might be enough to make a difference
Emerson polling sees the race tightening https://thehill.com/homenews/campai...-trump-biden-race-tightening-post-conventions
TLDR. But I’m not sure if a president has ever hated the military or his own country as much as Trump.
Of all the players you picked Gwynn and for a single in your scenario.. if Trump is like Gwynn and all he needs is a single than he will win a second term... Gwynn or Carew are 2 players I would never want to see at the plate and needing a single.... T_Man
Or perhaps it’s like having Jose Altuve at the plate and needing a hit but it’s this season and it’s more like a 19% chance.
