It looks like GFS model has shifted west slightly, again. ECMWF next update should start be spit out on twitter around 1pm.
Which is why the NHC cone moved a bit further west. Seems they trust and are following this model. The Euro has been all over the place from MS to Corpus in 1 day. Ill stick with the NHC.
Even though things are up in the air people definitely need to start preparing or get out if that’s what they wanna do . idk how the news has been treating this (prolly hyping it up , but Houston weather people are usually pretty solid ) but given how things have shifted west and the potential to strengthen there are some pretty bad scenarios. If it’s not bad for us it’s prolly bad for east texas coast .
GFS which the NHC tends to favors is going to continue to shift west because it’s not factoring the strength of the building Bermuda high (at least the western flank) Even though the European models are spread out, they are at least account for the Bermuda high that’s going to steer this thing.
The Euro has basically been saying it is going to hit Texas with a slight chance to hit W Louisiana for more than a day now. NHC keeps saying we should have listened to Euro more with each step west. Not saying Laura will hit Houston, but I think odds are much better than 50-50 of a Texas Landfall. I've been surprised that the NHC hasn't split the difference between the GFS and the ECMWF.
I noticed this always the case when tracking east coast hurricanes. The European models have always been in the ballpark where has GFS has been off and eventually readjusts to what the European models have been seeing all long.
Dreading the in-law call/text coming in about 24 hours if this hurricane is still heading for a direct hit.
Looks like the Euro came in around Port Arthur. East of the earlier runs. It's beginning to seem those western ensembles are starting to look unlikely.
