Yeah, @droxford, @KingCheetah probably put it best, and I've heard that from a lot of biologist pals too: we're probably looking at 2-3 years of non-normal life, with health, travel, and daily routine impacts, with the peak a year to 1.5 yrs in. The good thing, if there's a good thing, is that people are very adaptable... even Americans. And our ability to find treatments is better than ever, with modern scientific tools. Vaccines are still very hard though, especially the safe kind. But yeah, in our country, people aren't going to have a lot of discipline about masks and distancing -- we've seen plenty of evidence about that already, and it's going to be tough. We're going to have some dead and also a lot of permanently compromised people (heart, etc). It really sucks. If you could design a virus (not launching that conspiracy conversation) that would be tough for a loosely governed, independently-minded populace, a super contagious one with 40% of cases not showing symptoms would be at the top of the list.
To play the devil's advocate, technology and knowledge is much more widespread and much better than in the 1960s.
True, but necessity, as they say, is the mother of invention. When is the last time there was as much economic incentive to produce a functional vaccine quickly? 100 years ago during Spanish Flu? I bet we beat the snot out of that mumps 4 year duration. I bet it's cut in half with the vaccine that is developed for Covid.
Now THAT might make sense: a larger monetary incentive might drive a faster solution. But this is really all speculation. What frustrates me is that we're moving forward with solutions for which we don't know if they're viable long-term. And, aside from creating a vaccine (which will likely take years, if possible at all) we don't have any long-term solutions.
There will be a vaccine and it will likely be available in less than a year. People will agree to get the vaccine in higher numbers in the few years after that. Some people will still wear masks in dire situations (huge crowds) after than indefinitely. People that are sick with the flu will start wearing masks as a precaution. Large groups of people in the South and other areas will attempt to return to pre-covid status. There will be another pandemic (it is inevitable) and by that point we will start seeing wide scale changes. For example everyone at an airport being required to wear a mask and have their temperature tested. We will see some people progressively avoid large crowds as a general practice. The economic damages will extend for years. So far we are not dealing with the fall out, we will over the next half dozen years. People will be working from home and we will see an increase in people furnishing home offices and what is considered "social" will change some as well. Over time people will be accepting of all of this and it will become a way of life, like after 9-11.
you would think modern science should expedite our curve. As such I’m seeing fairly general consensus that this is solved for (whatever that means) by mid to late 2021. Societal impacts will be most acute the following 24 months until we fall back into a sense of safety and normalcy. As it stands - Houston is behind the curve in recovery leading to more of a feeling of isolation and frustration. The reality is we are all responsible for recovery and by simply taking proper steps, we can reintegrate with society now - as long as you don’t have high risk individuals you are in constant contact with - I encourage you to wear a mask, social distance, but socially engage. Go out to eat in a patio environment, bring friends. Meet new people. everyone can use a friendly face and a nice hello
In general, the government is trying to bridge the gap with future growth- a move I’m ok with but not the specific execution of how they’ve done so. As such, my concern (and the ruination of many a government) is the subsequent taxation required on a local and national basis. lots of dry powder on the sideline and continued strength from the American consumer. Get America back to 80% capacity within the next several months and we will be fine. Trends over the past 20+ years have simply been expedited undercutting certain sectors while creating opportunities elsewhere. However, if we are down for most of 2021 and/or further - the wheels on the bus will not be going round and round.
Ok, feedback from my PhD Virologist friend: Tech doesn't speed it up. But it can slow it down...we have tried and true vaccine platforms that are being largely ignored right now in favor of platforms we've had for 30 years but that have never been successful so people think they are new and insist on trying (RNA/DNA vaccines for example). Regardless of technology, you have to demonstrate that the vaccine is effective and safe and those take a lot of time to do right. Based on this, Mumps was a vaccine in the 1960s, so if we get concerted effort with the techniques that have been around for 30 years, we could potentially beat 4 years. But like she says here, you can't fast forward the process.
but you actually can, because the process was fundamentally flawed and takes years to produce documentation to support results. however, we can choose a different testing approach using volunteers injected with the virus and then given a placebo or test vaccine. Results will be measurable more quickly
No. Trials take a long time because they involve a double blind scenario that takes multiple stages to prove efficacy. Drugs can go through multiple stages with false positives some of this is ethics, some capitalism. Ethics says giving a group of people the virus is highly risky and suspect morally. Capitalism says pay some college students or low income people a couple gs to be in a clinical study where they are doses with covid and then either a placebo or a trial vaccine. It depends on how you morally interpret the above. I side on the pay people and insure their downside in case of death. There are plenty of people willing to join such a study.
The EU CDC has made this plan: They will get hundreds of millions of doses (already pre bought) from the AstraZeneca vaccine in December-January and the goal is to have a 50% efficacy. The vaccines will be given either free or very cheap first to healthcare workers, army, police and retirement homes and then over 65s. The rest of the population will wait for a better vaccine to come out. Meanwhile life will go on with social distancing, masks etc.
NASA: Asteroid headed toward Earth before November election https://thehill.com/homenews/news/513246-nasa-asteriod-headed-toward-earth-before-election?amp
