2020 Hurricane Season

Marco forecast to hit Japan Monday with 'Dragon Uppercut' form.

 

California could use help from Genevieve

 

They moved Marco

 

Man what a huge shift east.. 350 miles shift in a 48 hour landfill window is unprecedented. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that before, but it’s 2020 I guess.

 

So is Houston ****ed or not? Or still too early to call it?

 

Houston is ****ed if PJ Tucker keeps missing wide open buckets.

won’t know if we may get hit by Laura until it gets past Cuba/Hispaniola tomorrow.

 

I'm not counting the chickens in Houston just yet, but I would be concerned if I were in New Orleans. Both storms are now projected to hit around Houma within 48 hours of each other.

 

This was from a day or two ago, but 6 waterspouts in a storm simultaneously.... strange happenings in the Gulf :

https://www.fox13news.com/news/simultaneous-waterspouts-spotted-swirling-off-of-louisiana-coast

 

It's looking like we dodged one bullet with Marco. Should make landfall east of Louisiana as heavily sheared tropical storm. Laura on the other hand is consistently driven westward towards TX/LA by the models. The latest euro ensembles have been posted. Looks concerning for us.

https://ibb.co/h7bQn7g

 

Latest Euro shifted a bit east to a Rita like path. Good news for us. Not so much for Louisiana.

 

Who knows? Criss-cross apple sauce.

Tropical Storm Laura, Advisory #16
Valid: 09:00 AM CDT 23 Aug, 2020



Discussion: Laura is moving over Hispaniola. Conditions will continue to improve across Puerto Rico this morning. Gusty winds and flooding rains are likely from Hispaniola through Cuba over the next few days. Thereafter, Laura is expected to move toward the northern Gulf Coast.

Heaviest squalls and tropical storm-force wind should pass to your east on Wednesday evening and Thursday morning. However, there may be isolated squalls that could produce wind gusts to tropical storm strength, resulting in isolated power outages.

General Rainfall Amounts:
Rainfall totals west of the storm could reach up to 2-6 inches. Localized flooding will be possible.

Storm Surge:
Tides may run 2-5 feet above normal on Wednesday due to large waves moving into the coast.

Tropical Storm Marco Advisory 13
Valid: 09:00 AM CDT Sunday August 23, 2020



Current Location: 24.6N, 87.3W
Geographic Reference: 400 miles SSE of New Orleans, LA
Movement: North-northwest at 14 mph
Max Winds: 70 mph gusting to 85 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 6 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 4 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 8 out of a possible 50 points (3 size, 5 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 60 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 60 miles
Organizational Trend: Increasing
Forecast Confidence: Below Average
Estimated Central Pressure: 992 mb

Key Points
1. Marco is near hurricane intensity.
2. No significant changes have been made to the forecast.
3. Marco is expected to move inland over southeast Louisiana by late morning or early afternoon Monday as a strong, but small, tropical storm.

Our Forecast
Hurricane recon aircraft found winds near hurricane force in a small area of the northeastern quadrant of Marco this morning. It is possible that Marco may be reaching hurricane intensity. Marco may be upgraded to hurricane status later today while traversing to the north-northwest to northwest across the southern and south-central Gulf of Mexico.

As the system pushes into the northern Gulf of Mexico, increasing wind shear and interaction with dry air is expected to weaken the system back to a tropical storm. We continue to think that the storm will make landfall along the southeastern Louisiana Coast as a strong, but small, tropical storm Monday morning or early afternoon. Though coastal flooding in southeast Louisiana is likely due to storm surge based on our current track, the small wind field associated with Marco will limit the storm surge potential.

We continue to think that the system will gradually bend to the west-northwest as it moves farther north. There is some uncertainty regarding the timing of this turn. A later turn would increase the threat to coastal Mississippi. An earlier turn may allow for a landfall closer to Houma. Marco is expected to weaken quickly once inland.

Expected Impacts on Land
Southeast Louisiana, including New Orleans and Baton Rouge: Possible heavy rains have the potential to cause street flooding at a minimum. Scattered to widespread power outages are expected from New Orleans through the Baton rouge area.

Expected Impacts Offshore
Southeast Louisiana Blocks: Squalls could reach the deepwater lease areas by late this afternoon into tonight.

 

Gonna be a bad week for Louisiana
and evacuate Katy just to be safe

 

“Tropical Storm Laura's projected path has been shifted, placing Houston and southeast Texas firmly in the cone of uncertainty.”

Does that mean they still aren’t certain where the cone will be or that we are in the cone?

 

I think it means “Evacuate Katy. Maybe maybe no.”

 

Latest HWRF model. Yes, that would be a CAT 5 off Galveston if this happens. Here's hoping we are spared like we were for Rita. This is getting scary.

 

Latest Euro. Hopefully this is what actually plays out. Humongous track and intensity difference. What the euro appears to do differently is not have Marco make landfall and instead slide towards Brownsville as a very weak low. Folks are saying that having Marco so close just lingering will disrupt the perfect conditions for Laura and keep it from intensifying rapidly that some of the other models show. Lets cross our fingers.