The Clintons bought a home in Chappaqua in November 1999 and the they moved into the home in January 2000. Though she formed a exploratory committee in July 1999, he didn't announce until February 7, 2000 from the home. Contrast this to the candidate who said she would move into her district *if* she won.
Polls are bouncing up and down. Harris/Hill has Biden by 6, which is lower than what the RCP average is, but Biden gained 2 points in the same poll since last week, 3 points since 2 weeks ago, but lost a point from last month when he was +7. Since the beginning of May, Harris/Hill has had Biden leading by anywhere from +1 to +10. Trumps's biggest leads are among white people (+9) and those aged 35-49 (+8). That last one surprises me. https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-ame...poll-biden-leads-trump-by-6-points-nationwide
In the CNN Poll that showed only a 4% lead for Biden they pointed out the biggest change that they were finding was white voters. Trump appears to be solidifying the white vote and this may be due to his "Law and Order" campaign which is deliberately playing upon fears of white suburban voters. Coverage of spikes in crime such as what happened in Chicago may be contributing to it.
@jiggyfly should we circle back to the conversation we were having a few weeks back about the "come home" to Trump voters? The polls tightening a little bit seems to show some of what i've seen anecdotally. Which is that given ANY excuse, these suburban white voters will find any excuse to go back to Trump. The polling data point that freaks me out the most is Trump's continual lead on "who do you trust more on the economy?" Trump has completely destroyed our economy by ignoring a pandemic that has shut down major parts of our economy, put millions out of work, and prioritized shoveling money at billionaires and corporations who do not need it, but even then he STILL has the benefit of the doubt with a majority of voters. I'm flumuxed and really not feeling optimistic about November because of the overwhelming ignorance of American voters who vote against their self interest in favor of culture wars & identity politics.
When we have any discussion you want but realize I never said polls would not be tightening and not that voters would not come home so i don't know what point you are making. My point was that I don't think voters that go home are substantial and entirely republicans, also the polls have been pretty stable if you look at the averages, the CNN poll seems to be an outlier. I have never at any point said Biden has it in the bag and yes i realize the stupidity of the american voter but that does not change the raw data that we have.
I wasn't disagreeing with anything you had said necessarily, I just wanted to get your take on what you think is going on with the polls tightening. The "circle back" wasn't a diss. It was a call to get your opinion.
Polls don't mean anything now it's too early and they're just snapshots, except this one outlier poll, which means exactly what I said was gonna happen is exactly what is happening.
Cool my bad. The CNN poll was interesting but such of an outlier all of the other polls have been pretty steady, makes me wonder if they were not just drumming up something news worthy. I am all about the state polls really and those seem to still be ticking up for Biden.
Yes and I said in a few posts that that poll was an outlier. I also said there are other polls that show the difference is in the single digits. That said are you now agreeing with me then that the polls back in June and early July shouldn't have been taken as accurate predictors?
I agree the CNN poll is an outlier but looking at the RCP average it does show some recent tightening and the current average lead is 6%. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html Now that is skewed by the CNN poll but as noted there are other polls showing a single digit lead. As RayRay noted there does appear to be some significant swings in the last few months.
Exactly. CNN even had "Race is tightening!" type click-baits for all this. Drums up traffic for them. What'd they do, throw in a disproportionate number of Southern white male engineers in the polls? "Of the two major party candidates, who do you suppo---?" "TRUMP!"
The lead is 7.6% look at the graph below the trend line has been the same since July and it has actually ticked up since last week.
The polling averages now are pretty much the exact same. Biden is +8.5, via 538. A month ago he was +8.8. 2 months ago +8.9. Seems like the polls in June were pretty accurate predictors, of a race that has shown unusual stability, unlike 2016. So why would I agree with you..now? By contrast the data point that you are citing here because it squares with your theory has been the exact opposite. It went from Biden +11 in April, to Biden +5 in May to Biden +14 in June to Biden +4 in August To you, the August number is the most valid, because it fits your narrative. And maybe CNN-SRSS has discovered the magic formula that the other outlets are getting wrong. But, it's not very likely.
