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Rockets to face Thunder in 1st Round

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by J.R., Aug 12, 2020.

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Rockets v. Thunder

Poll closed Aug 18, 2020.
  1. Rockets in 4

    5.4%
  2. Rockets in 5

    22.2%
  3. Rockets in 6

    40.2%
  4. Rockets in 7

    14.9%
  5. Thunder in 7

    4.2%
  6. Thunder in 6

    8.8%
  7. Thunder in 5

    1.9%
  8. Thunder in 4

    2.3%
  1. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    I specifically said you speak on things when you have no business doing so. You continue to do so. I got you covered there
     
  2. Air Canada

    Air Canada Member

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    You literally just showed in this post an inability to speak in specifics once again... Lol wow... What a vapid response... Well done sir.
     
  3. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    (4) Houston vs. (5) Oklahoma City

    Welcome to the Irony Bowl. Houston swapped out Chris Paul for Russell Westbrook for a variety of reasons, but the perception of their relative durability was certainly among them. Now, heading into their playoff series, it is Westbrook who will miss some or possibly all of it with a quad strain, while the 35-year-old Paul played 70 games this season and looks fit as a fiddle.

    How much does it matter that Westbrook is out? Perhaps not much, as long as James Harden stays ambulatory and avoids fouls. The Rockets with Harden on the floor and Westbrook off it were basically the same team this year, even after the Feb. 6 trade of Clint Capela that shifted Houston to its current version of smallball.

    On the other hand, having Harden off the court was a total game-changer – the Rockets got smashed by 9.8 points per 100 in the 331 minutes he didn’t play. Not having Westbrook didn’t move the needle at all.

    However, there’s a game within the game here. We know Harden isn’t going to play all 48 minutes, and the time when he sits could get significantly worse without Westbrook to help stem the bleeding. There’s just not much else here in terms of shot creation.

    The Rockets will turn to Eric Gordon first, but he’s been terrible all year save for one magical 50-point night in Utah. Returning to the court in the bubble late this week, he shot 9-for-25 with seven turnovers in two games. Ugh. Jeff Green, Austin Rivers and Ben McLemore seem likely to give them a bit more juice, with Rivers’ shot creation potentially being important when Harden sits. I wouldn’t be surprised to see McLemore start at some point this series.

    Oklahoma City welcomes back Denis Schröder, who almost immediately will move to a key role in what is likely to be a guard-heavy series. However, the two key players who likely determine the outcome are Danilo Gallinari and, especially, Steven Adams. Can the Rockets’ smallball expose them on defense? Are they okay rotating out to shooters? Or can they be solid enough to mash Houston’s undersized lineup at the other end?

    Perhaps it’s not such a big deal to keep the bigs out there. Houston’s 3-point shooting is basically a ruse at this point – a trick to tempt you away from guarding more valuable space at the rim. The Rockets only shot 34.5 percent on 3s this year, and McLemore was the only individual to make more than 36.3 percent. On the other hand, they shot 55.7 percent inside the arc – the second-best mark in the league, and with the best free-throw rate piled on top.

    Adams, in particular, is a problem for Houston, especially as the series wears on. Physically one of the strongest players in the league, Adams getting handled seven times in 13 days by P.J. Tucker and Robert Covington is surely going to subtract some hit points from both Houston defenders. (Yes, that’s a Dungeons & Dragons reference. You’re the dork who got it.)

    Rebounding is an especially weighty concern. Adams had a 14.0 percent Offensive Rebound Rate this season – Houston’s entire team was at 15.3 percent in the eight bubble games!

    As far as how this plays out, you won’t find any clues from the regular season. Oklahoma City and Houston last played on Jan. 20 – and the Rockets had a bigger lineup that day. Capela played 25 minutes in the middle for Houston, while Adams checked out after just one with an ankle sprain.

    Depth is the other key issue in this series, both ways – neither bench is very good, but Houston’s has a bit more proven talent. The Thunder had five good players this season and several sub-replacement level ones behind them, but late in the year used Luguentz Dort as a defensive stopper to stretch the functional rotation to six. They played large stretches of fourth quarters with three small guards – Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Schröder – but the Rockets aren’t well-equipped to hurt a lineup like that, especially sans Westbrook.

    If Andre Roberson or up-and-coming rookie Darius Bazley can capably fill the seventh spot in the rotation, that would likely be enough. I’m not sure we’ll see much of Nerlens Noel in this series given the matchup, as the Thunder can probably just roll with Gallinari as the backup 5.

    Oklahoma City’s ability to scale up for the playoffs has been underrated all year. If you subtract out all the minutes played by assorted Fergusons, Naders and Muscalas who won’t be on the court in this series, the remainder of the Thunder’s resume looks pretty impressive. Against a weakened Rockets team that doesn’t have a big wing to attack the Thunder’s greatest vulnerability, this is going to be pretty close to a coin-toss. In the end, I’ll ride with Houston’s home-music advantage in a nail-biter.

    The pick: Houston in seven.
     
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  4. D-rock

    D-rock Member

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    Back to basketball.

    Eric Gordon will be in starting lineup vs. OKC.

     
  5. LorneMalvo

    LorneMalvo Member

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    Gordon is atrocious at fighting through screens.
     
  6. D-rock

    D-rock Member

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    Rockets switch everything on D, remember?
     
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  7. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist

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    He's known Paul's game for like 12 years. I think we'll be ok.

    Besides, who's CP3 going to force the switch onto? Best bet is Harden. Good luck getting past a motivated Harden.

    Other options: House, Covington, Tucker.

    This is not gonna be an easy series for Paul.
     
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  8. D-rock

    D-rock Member

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    Keep picking that pocket Beard!!!

     
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  9. DreamShook

    DreamShook Member

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  10. Cstyle42

    Cstyle42 Member

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    EG is the type of defender you need on a CP3.
     
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  11. Ubiquitin

    Ubiquitin Member
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    I am nervous about this matchup without any basis in reality.
     
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  12. D-rock

    D-rock Member

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  13. Caprah

    Caprah Member

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    What was harden field goal percentage in the bubble regular season? I bet they was something filthy
     
  14. D-rock

    D-rock Member

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    Harden is unbelievable.

    Owns 2 of the 3 best offensive performances ever.

     
    #574 D-rock, Aug 16, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2020
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  15. D-rock

    D-rock Member

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    OKC surprisingly bad rebounding team.

     
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  16. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    That surprises me. Should be good for us. Something to exploit, especially if we can get Russ back. He's arguably the best rebounding guard in the Association. Certainly in the top 3. They'll be looking to exploit Westbrook's absence, of course. It's going to be a crazy series.
     
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  17. Caprah

    Caprah Member

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    The trolls here are running out of excuses now. Plays no defense, wrong. Ineffective low percentage chucker, wammmm wrong. The cutest narrative is if another player had his usage they would be just as effective which shows how stupid they truly are. Another player with his usage would be crippled by now with the physical punishment he takes. Hell russ broke down and he is a tank.
     
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  18. DrNuegebauer

    DrNuegebauer Member

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    Missing Russ is going to be huge. The expectation that superhero Harden should "just get it done" is completely unfair. Take away any all-star from any team and they're going to struggle, especially if that player is a PG.

    Shooting has been pretty bad recently - hopefully playoff Gordon and his 40% stroke from 3 makes a resurgence. Otherwise we're toast!
     
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  19. Zboy

    Zboy Member

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    Thunder is not going to let Harden beat them.

    They will double him at the mid court line and force him to give the ball up.

    They will gladly let someone else make plays for the team knowing full well the team doest have a reliable play-maker once you take Harden out of the game and with WB out.

    Eric Gordon is a turnover waiting to happen when he tries to make a play. You are in trouble if you have tot rely on Tucker, Covington, and House to make the plays for you.

    The only one that could make plays is Austin Rivers but if have to rely on him to do this heavily in a 7 game series then odds are not in your favor.

    Losing WB hurts the team massively tactically, especially with someone as savvy as CP to hurt you on defense.
     
  20. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    No. 4 Houston Rockets vs. No. 5 Oklahoma City Thunder

    Scout’s outlook:
    “What a series! That is the series to watch. … The absence of (Russell) Westbrook (who has a quad injury and is expected to miss the early stages of the series) will be critical right from the get-go. That is a key factor. I would tend to think OKC’s got the advantage in the series because of that injury. Surely, Houston could beat OKC without Westbrook, but it’s that much harder.

    “Obviously for Houston, are they going to make shots? … There are no answers for (James) Harden (if you’re OKC). You just hope he misses. I mean, nobody’s figured him out. Get the ball out of his hands, obviously. Is Danuel House legitimate? Is Ben McLemore legitimate when it counts? I mean, will they make shots when it counts? Will P.J. Tucker make shots?

    “For OKC, Chris Paul is playing at a very high level. Do they have enough playoff experience to win? What has Shai (Gilgeous-Alexander) done (in the playoffs)? … I’m not sure they’re quite playoff-ready. … (Danilo) Gallinari’s got to be big. He’s their No. 2 guy, really.”

    Coach’s outlook: “I think the Russell Westbrook injury is going to make the first couple games a little bit more interesting, and I think down the line the guys that the Thunder are going to have to play to stop James Harden are going to severely hinder their offensive spacing. The Luguentz Dorts, the Hamidou Diallos — those guys, and Andre Roberson, (the Thunder’s) defensive players are just such non-offensive factors that I feel like that’s going to conversely give Harden and Westbrook opportunities to rest on defense and match up against them. I just don’t feel like the Thunder are going to put out enough weapons out there to make them guard, unless they completely believe in Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Dennis Schröder and (Danilo) Gallinari, that foursome, to really play heavy, heavy minutes.

    “I really like the Thunder, and Chris Paul, the way he played and the way he has generated their team’s overall ethos and mantra and disposition and such. I don’t think he’s going to go down without a fight, so I think it’s going to go seven games.”

    Executive’s outlook: “Yeah, CP3 and Shai, they don’t have someone to guard either of them. They can guard one or the other. I think Harden goes for 45, 10 and 10 a couple of times, but the Thunder for the second half of the season have been a top four or five team in basketball and I think they continue it here, with Russ being out for the first few games tipping the scales.”

    Scout’s pick: Thunder in seven
    Coach’s pick: Rockets in seven
    Executive’s pick: Thunder in six
    Consensus advancing team: Thunder
     
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