LOL... and now we know why trump started the "Space Patrol"... to counter Democrat control of the "voting satellites"...
Almost 100 Days Out, Democrats Are Favored to Take Back the Senate With just over 100 days until Election Day, the political climate appears dire for Republicans across the board. President Trump is the decided underdog against former Vice President Joe Biden in our Electoral College ratings and Democrats could end up expanding their House majority. That leaves the Senate as Republicans' firewall—the final barrier to unified control for Democrats in 2021. While GOP incumbents are trying to run races independent of the president, if Trump’s polling numbers remain this dismal come November, that’s an unenviable and likely unsuccessful strategy, according to several top party strategists. As of now, Democrats are a slight favorite to win the Senate majority. “Something remarkable would have to happen for Republicans to still have control of the Senate after November,” remarked one GOP pollster. “It’s grim. There’s just so many places where Democrats either have the upper hand or are competitive in states that six months ago we wouldn’t have considered at risk.” “If you’re an incumbent in a bad environment sitting at 44 percent, you should be pretty damn scared,” another alarmed Republican strategist said. “The expanding map has made it really hard, and there’s just a lot of Democratic momentum right now." We wrote four months ago that the worsening pandemic, along with Biden emerging as the Democratic nominee instead of Bernie Sanders, was the “perfect storm” Republicans feared. Now, with the death toll nearing 150,000, the environment has gotten even worse for the GOP, prodded along by Trump’s missteps. Racial injustice protests y after the deaths of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor and Ahmaud Arbery in early June further galvanized the nation, leading to rapid cultural shifts against Confederate monuments and even the long pushed for change of the Mississippi state flag, which still bore the Confederate battle flag emblem. Taken together, that’s not just a perfect storm for Democrats, but perhaps a perfect tsunami. “The bottom fell out for us at the end of May and June,” with worsening numbers continuing into July now, one national GOP strategist looking at polls across the map bemoaned. Ultimately, every day that Trump stubbornly refuses to change course is another day that it becomes increasingly likely he may not only tank his own re-election bid but could be on a kamikaze mission to take the Republican-held Senate down with him. At this point, a net gain of five to seven seats for Democrats looks far more probable than the one to three seat gain that would leave them shy of a majority. July Ratings Changes: Arizona: Martha McSally (R) — Toss Up → Lean D Iowa: Joni Ernst (R) — Lean R → Toss Up Georgia: David Perdue (R) — Lean R → Toss Up Minnesota: Tina Smith (D) — Likely D → Solid D New Mexico: OPEN (Udall) — Likely D → Solid D https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/...ys-out-democrats-are-favored-take-back-senate
The map and money are working against Republicans: Democratic candidates have the fundraising momentum, with challengers crushing virtually every incumbent in a competitive race in the second quarter reports released last week. Party committees and the major outside PACs for each side are also spending heavily, with the most overall invested in North Carolina, a race some Republicans are feeling more pessimistic about. It’s not that Democrats have extremely stellar candidates everywhere, save for perhaps Mark Kelly in Arizona. But most are running solid campaigns, raising strong amounts of cash, and are benefiting from a favorable national climate. It’s almost the reverse of what happened with this same class of senators in 2014, a GOP wave year when they swept back the Senate.
Even with a probable loss in Alabama — increasingly the only bright spot for Republicans — that would require the Democrats to flip four seats if Biden wins (and five if he does not), the current map leaves multiple plausible paths for them to a majority. By looking at the numbers, the battleground becomes clear — Arizona is falling down the list for the GOP to defend, and Colorado is threatening to. If the election were today, Arizona, Colorado and North Carolina stand as the most vulnerable, closely followed by Maine. That leaves what Republicans see as the tipping point states of Montana, Iowa and Georgia. But they have other states they have to watch and worry about, including Kansas, Texas, and even Alaska and South Carolina. Michigan remains the only other GOP offensive opportunity that remains on our map, and Army veteran John James, who ran and lost in 2018 against Sen. Debbie Stabenow by 6.5 points, is the lone GOP challenger who outraised a Democratic incumbent, Sen. Gary Peters. James’s ads have been strong, as he talks about his African-American heritage, and he’s been willing to distance himself from Trump more than some incumbents have been able to. He also doesn’t have a voting record to defend. But the bottom line is that even Republicans believe Michigan is gone for Trump, and even if James might be able to overperform the president, especially in the Detroit suburbs, polls don’t show it’s enough, so it remains in Lean Democratic. A historic look at Senate elections in presidential years As Trump’s numbers continue to freefall, perhaps the statistic that should scare Republicans fighting to hold the Senate the most is that in 2016, every Senate race outcome tracked exactly with the presidential winner in that state. Republicans lost incumbents in Illinois and New Hampshire, while Democrats flipped a seat in Nevada to give them a net gain of one even as Trump scored an upset White House victory (while Clinton carried the popular vote). If that trend holds for 2020, as state polling stands now Republicans would be on pace to lose seats in Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages as of Thursday. Both Iowa and Georgia remain incredibly close with Trump just narrowly ahead. Still, even those first four states would be enough to give Democrats a majority. On the flip side, for Democrats that could make Montana a more difficult gain. A historical look through data dating back to 1980 — the last time the Senate flipped outright during a presidential election year — unsurprisingly shows that four decades ago, voters were more likely to split their tickets between a presidential ballot and a Senate race. That difference has virtually evaporated in today’s far more polarized environment. That is especially true in the most competitive Senate races, as we looked through our ratings back to our founding in 1984.
In fact, open-seat races and other contests the Cook Political Report has rated as competitive (Toss Up or Lean) in recent cycles perform closest to the presidential margin, and in many years they perform worse. Republicans tend to hew closest to the presidential margins, while Democrats have been able to overperform their presidential nominee in competitive races and states they lost at the presidential level better on average than Republicans. Look at the 1980 election — which has drawn perhaps the most salient comparisons to today’s political environment, given Jimmy Carter’s sagging approval ratings — Republicans flipped 12 Senate seats. But even in the seats Democrats lost, they still overperformed Carter by 10 points. Senate Democrats overall outperformed the beleaguered incumbent president by 23 points.
The last time a president lost re-election was in 1992, when George H.W. Bush was defeated by Bill Clinton. That year, GOP senators in competitive races outperformed the top of the ticket by 13 points — but those numbers are also skewed because of the three-way race Bush and Clinton found themselves in with billionaire Ross Perot. In 1996, Clinton won re-election (and Perot ran again but was less of a factor), and although Bob Dole lost, Republicans were able to pick up a net of two Senate seats as incumbents began to successfully use the "check and balance" argument to maintain a GOP Senate. Fast forward to 2016. Republicans in competitive states the GOP held on to — in another presidential year where they had hoped to flip the Senate — did end up outperforming Trump, but only narrowly in many instances. In Florida, Marco Rubio outpaced Trump by 3.4 points, while in Ohio, Rob Portman ran ahead of Trump by 6.7 points. In Wisconsin, Ron Johnson’s vote total was almost 3 points higher than Trump’s narrow win in the state, while in Pennsylvania, Pat Toomey only outran Trump by 0.6 points. In North Carolina, Richard Burr’s vote total was 1.27 points higher than Trump’s. But in 2008, when Republican last lost control of the White House amid a blue wave, candidates in competitive Senate seats ended up underperforming John McCain’s ballot numbers in their states by 3.6 points. Four years later, as Barack Obama won re-election, Republicans in competitive races underperformed by 3.1 points. The largest margin that any candidate in a competitive race has outperformed the top of the ticket by the last two cycles was North Dakota Democrat Heidi Heitkamp in 2012, who ran 11.8 points ahead of Obama even as he lost her state. That’s the model Democrats hope Gov. Steve Bullock can emulate in Montana, though polls even show Trump’s once 20-point victory four years ago there has tightened dramatically to single digits, and we now rate the state in our Electoral College ratings as Likely Republican. Republicans hope that Susan Collins’s history of outperforming the top of the ticket can continue, and she’ll need wide margins — but is unlikely to get the 20 points or so she’s used to as she faces her toughest test yet. This is a race some Republicans are feeling privately better about, but others know she’s still vulnerable. Where the current Senate map
Where the current Senate map stands: Arizona and Colorado are the most vulnerable These historical numbers underscore why the GOP Senate majority is in imminent peril. Arizona and Colorado remain the hardest seats for Republicans to hold onto. We know many Democrats and even Republicans already consider Colorado Sen. Cory Gardner to be gone, and this is a race that gives us a bit of pause. Looking at the numbers, it’s hard to see a path for Gardner historically, and probably the maximum he might be able to outperform Trump is mid-single digits — right at the 5 points Trump won the state by last time. But the president is in far worse shape in Colorado and everywhere. Gardner still has major GOP groups such as the Chamber of Commerce behind him though, and as the immediate past chairman of the NRSC, he retains a lot of loyal allies. He’s also a skilled campaigner and likable, but his alignment with Trump after he shunned him in 2016 may still ultimately be his undoing. Gardner could run a perfect race and still lose this contest, simply because the ground has shifted underneath him since six years ago — he’s performing poorly in the highly-educated Denver area and surrounding suburbs, and may not be able to make up the margins in the rural areas of the state. “Trump is doing Cory no favors,” said one Colorado Republican. “If Trump wins Colorado by 12 or 13 points, it’s hard to see how Cory can withstand that.” Former Gov. John Hickenlooper, hailed as a surefire winner when he dropped from the presidential contest to this one, has been a problematic and somewhat lackluster candidate, with ethics issues the GOP is highlighting (though Democrats dismiss those as politically motivated), but some of his wounds are indeed self-inflicted. Republicans do believe they’ve been able to damage him with their attacks and Hickenlooper’s image has taken a hit, but Democrats and even some GOP strategists overall believe the race is the former governor’s to lose. Republican polling has Gardner down but within the margin of error, while Democratic surveys peg the race as a near-done deal. For now, we may be overly cautious in leaving Colorado in Toss Up, and we do wish there was more public polling in this race by high quality pollsters. But if Trump’s numbers continue to be where they are nationally, it’s hard to see how Gardner could hold onto the seat given the partisan winds even if he runs a perfect race. If by Labor Day the president’s standing has not improved, Republicans overall may be at a place of reckoning with this race, and we will re-evaluate our rating too. The GOP-held race we are shifting into Democratic takeover territory is Arizona Sen. Martha McSally — an appointed senator who comes just off a 2018 loss for the same position — from Toss Up to Lean Democrat. Fueling this move is that McSally is not the traditional incumbent, which also factors into our decision to move this into the Democratic column. She was never elected to this seat, appointed by Gov. Doug Ducey instead just after her 2.4 point loss last cycle to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema to fill the seat formerly held by the late Sen. John McCain. As a result, McSally started out in a weaker position than incumbents — who have six years to mend wounds from a bitter contest — begin anyway, and she’s done little to run a different race from the losing one she did just two years ago. Plus, she’s running against Democrats’ best recruit in the country, former astronaut Mark Kelly — a fact even Republicans reluctantly admit privately. In talking with multiple GOP strategists this week, it’s becoming clear that many are beginning to give up on McSally, as poll after public poll have shown her trailing. She still has her own hefty fundraising to rely on, but Kelly has double the cash on hand now. “McSally has scar tissue” from 2018, as one Republican observer put it. And many don’t believe she’s improved as a candidate or learned many lessons from that loss. The cruel irony isn’t lost on GOP strategists that it’s Gardner who is the far better campaigner and candidate running in the tougher state, while McSally has a more favorable (but still increasingly difficult) state but is running the weaker race. Add to that that she’s up against Kelly, the husband of former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, and there’s no room for error. Republicans are trying to hit Kelly for business ties to China, and they think that has dented his favorables somewhat, but not enough yet. “Arizona is just about off the map,” one top Republican Senate strategist admitted. “I think Kelly has run the best campaign in America.”
Hawkeye Headaches for Republicans Iowa is the newest worry for Republicans, a race we are shifting from Lean Republican to Toss Up. We last moved this race into a more competitive category back in March, when freshman Republican Sen. Joni Ernst’s re-election numbers were showing signs of softening. Now they’re in a very perilous position, and this race could become the tipping point of control in the Senate. Republicans had initially downplayed the challenge Ernst, who became a rising GOP star after she promised to make Washington “squeal” during her 2014 race, faces from Theresa Greenfield. The Democrat has a compelling story of how she survived on social security benefits as her first husband, a union electrician, was killed on the job, leaving her with a small child and pregnant with another. After Greenfield won her primary in June, a poll from venerated Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer and the Des Moines Register showed Greenfield leading Ernst by 3 points, 49%-47%. Both GOP and Democratic polling are now showing the same statistically tied race. And Ernst has had some missteps in the race and isn’t performing as well as Republicans had hoped. Republicans are hoping to dent Greenfield’s business record, but her farm background has her more competitive in many of the Trump/Obama counties along the Mississippi River that Clinton struggled with in 2016, and so did Democratic gubernatorial nominee Fred Hubbell in his 2018 loss. With three competitive congressional races too, including two Democrats flipped in the midterms, it’s an engaged electorate across the board, tightening at the presidential level as well. “The environment is even worse there than it was in June,’ bemoaned one national GOP strategist. “Ernst is underwater, and she needs some work.” Ernst’s GOP allies, however, retort that Greenfield has been too guarded from voters and hasn’t been truly tested or scrutinized yet by the press in this campaign, and has been weak in media interviews with scripted answers. But again, in a year where the environment is favorable for Democrats, that may not matter. Georgia on Democrats’ Minds With the Peach State looking more like a swing state than ever, buoyed by growth and diversification in the Atlanta suburbs that are repelled by Trump, it couldn’t be worse timing that there is not one, but two Senate seats up there this cycle. At present, Georgia is the newest state that is giving Republicans a heavy dose of heartburn. At the outset of the cycle, freshman GOP Sen. David Perdue looked well-heeled for re-election. We moved this race into a more competitive Lean Republican category in May though, as it became apparent that the race was tightening, reflecting the political evolution in the state. Now, in what may be our most surprising and somewhat controversial rating shift, new polling numbers from both Democrats and private Republican polling merits a move into the Toss Up column, and ultimately what appears to be driving this race’s change is just a very poor environment here. Jon Ossoff, who ran and lost in a highly-publicized 2017 special election in the 6th District, was able to clear the June primary outright and avoid a runoff, which did show the strength of his campaign and gave him a needed boost to try and catch Perdue. An internal poll this week from his campaign pollster Fred Yang of Garin-Hart-Yang shows he has now done that, finding him in a statistical tie with Perdue, 45%-44%, with Biden up 4 points on Trump. The well-respected Yang also writes that, “Among voters who recognize both candidates (61% of the electorate) Jon Ossoff leads by 55% to 39%, which is a strong indication of Ossoff’s ability to grow his positives and thus his voteonce he gets better known.” Sources tell us that mirrors some private GOP polling in the state too, though other Republicans nationally and in the state still believe Perdue holds the advantage and the fundamentals will break the incumbent's way. A late June Fox News poll, however, also found the race within the margin of error, with Perdue up 45%-42%. National Republicans are sure to scoff at that characterization of an opening for Ossoff. In that 2017 race — which still holds the record for the most expensive congressional campaign ever — they were able to assail him and effectively nationalize the contest for what was the first post-Trump electoral test. The NRSC’s latest ads try to paint him as a young and entitled with a thin resume and a Hollywood puppet, echoes of the narrative they used against him three years ago as well. Still, if we follow the money in the race — including a nearly $22.5 investment from SLF and their affiliate One Nation — Georgia is now the second most expensive race the GOP is putting defensive money down on, ahead only of North Carolina. Of course, the state is obviously a very expensive one, including the pricey Atlanta media market too. Democrats are beginning to make buys too -- just this week, Duty and Honor, a 501(c)(4) aligned with Majority Forward placed a $5.2 million August TV buy. Count us among the skeptical initially that Ossoff could make this race more competitive. During his first run, he appeared guarded and uneasy at times. But in observations since his passion does come across and he seems to be more comfortable as a candidate. Democrats say his focus on anti-corruption especially is resonating with voters, and this time he’s emphasizing more work as CEO of Insight TWI, an investigative media production company that’s probed war crimes and soccer corruption. Ossoff is looking to build on the gains Stacey Abrams was able to make in her 2018 gubernatorial election. And now-Gov. Brian Kemp’s floundering of the COVID spike there, coupled with racial injustice protests over police killings, has only worsened the political climate for Republicans too. Abrams’s Fair Fight Action group has also registered over 750,000 new voters since 2018, with nearly half of those being voters of color and younger voters. The primary last month saw record turnout as well for Democrats. Republicans push back on the idea this is an even race, believing that Perdue’s business background and tone are enough to bring moderates wary of Trump back into the fold, at least at the Senate level, and that the “outsider” mantra he ran on and won can work again. But 2014 was a very, very different year than 2020 is shaping up to be, and the Atlanta area and its surrounding suburbs have been perhaps the most rapidly shifting politically in those intervening six years. If Ossoff can post strong numbers there, in counties like Gwinnett, DeKalb and Cobb, along with more exurban ones like Cherokee and Forsyth, there’s a path to victory, as long as he can at least hold his own in the more rural areas, which is where a surge saved Kemp in 2018. But there's an equal path for Perdue to victory too. Perdue went up this week with an ad claiming Ossoff backs a “socialist agenda,” trying to tie the Democrat to more progressive factions in the party, even though Ossoff says he backs a public option on health care like the one Biden supports and not Medicare for All, for example. “I need your help to stop socialism from running through the state of Georgia,” Perdue intones. The special election for the seat now occupied by appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler is, of course, competitive as well, though we are leaving it in Lean Republican for now given the volatility of the jungle primary on Election Day, and we simply don’t have enough data yet in this race that’s been overshadowed between the GOP base battle between Loeffler and Rep. Doug Collins -- and is all but certain to go to a January 2021 runoff. Rev. Raphael Warnock has raised impressive sums for the race, besting both the self-funding Loeffler and Collins in donations, but he needs to be better known. Still, a boost in Black turnout spurred by Biden and now Warnock, pastor of the historic Ebenezer Baptist Church, could also lift Ossoff’s chances. In the primary, Ossoff was aided by an endorsement from the legendary Rep. John Lewis, who passed away just this past weekend. Ossoff calls the civil rights hero a mentor he began volunteering for when he was a teenager. We have to note too that it’s not out of the question that the Perdue/Ossoff contest could also go to a runoff, if no candidate tops 50 percent, and there is a Libertarian candidate on that ballot along with two independents. Dating back to 1992, statewide runoffs have favored the GOP candidates -- but as the demographics and politics of the state have changed, this truism may have too. But it’s just too early to know what type of runoff scenario might play out -- if Biden wins the White House, do depressed Republicans say home? Do Democrats still turn out in droves if they’ve been victorious elsewhere? Could Senate control hinge on one or both contests here? There are plenty of unknowns.
Republicans’ Kansas Problem Persists The good news for Republicans is that their messy GOP primary to succeed the retiring Sen. Pat Roberts is almost over come August 4. The bad news is that it’s still not certain that former Secretary of State Kris Kobach won’t wrest the nomination. Outside groups are now coming to Rep. Roger Marshall’s aid and hitting Kobach, and the Club For Growth stopped their air assault on Marshall too. But Kobach has his own super PAC backed by Peter Thiel, and a Democrat-backed PAC is also trying to meddle to boost the immigration hardliner who lost the 2018 governor’s race. Self-financing plumber Bob Hamilton is also running as an outsider candidate, but his presence may only split the vote and could help Kobach inadvertently. If it’s Kobach who wins the nomination, this race may edge into the Toss Up column. But even if Marshall is victorious, we’d keep this race in the Lean Republican column for now. National Republicans have justified worries about the state of Marshall’s campaign on its own, and he’s been unable to raise the type of money needed for a credible statewide race. The outgoing Roberts just endorsed him too, and it feels like the cavalry in the final week is racing to save him, to stave off Kobach yes. But there are real red flags if Marshall doesn’t improve either. That’s because waiting in the wings for Democrats is Barbara Bollier, an anesthesiologist and former GOP state legislator, which gives her cross-party appeal, and she raised $3.6 million last quarter, while no GOP candidate even topped a half-million. Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in Kansas in almost a century, but this remains one of the more surprising developments on the map, to Republicans' detriment. Texas on the Horizon? There is evidence that Texas is very much in play at the presidential level, but right now Sen. John Cornyn still has the advantage over former Air Force helicopter pilot M.J. Hegar, who emerged from a Democratic runoff last week. We are leaving this race in the Likely Republican column for now, but of the quartet there it is probably the most competitive. A Quinnipiac University poll released this week had Cornyn above water in job approvals, 41% to 35%, and showed him leading Hegar 47%-38%. Ultimately, over half of voters don’t have an opinion of Hegar. That only underscores that Hegar needs more money and to find a way to spark her campaign in one of the most expensive states in the country with 20 media markets. As we wrote earlier this month, “it’s hard not to wonder what this race might look like if 2018 Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke had instead just kept running for Senate after his narrow loss to Ted Cruz instead of setting off on an ill-fated presidential campaign.” The answer, according to frustrated Democratic operatives, is “a top tier race.” The onus is on Hegar here to take advantage of a competitive playing field up and down the ballot — from the White House to several congressional seats to the state House — and that would have a trickle-up effect of sorts. But for now, this remains a glaring opportunity that hasn’t materialized for Democrats, even though Republicans expect the race will tighten and even expect they may have to spend money here down the line. The Broader Map There are two other races we’ve kept in our Likely Democratic category for some time — New Mexico and Minnesota. Both were closer at the presidential level than anticipated. But with Trump’s shrinking everywhere, these once hopeful expansion states are now gone from realistic flips. The same holds true at the Senate level, too. When we look at the far more competitive races we have across the board in the Likely Republican column, all races that the GOP will have to watch and even spend money in, the duo in the Democratic column are clearly not at the same level. The vastly conservative former Rep. Jason Lewis, a controversial former radio host who was ousted in 2018, doesn’t appear to have a realistic shot of ousting Democratic Sen. Tina Smith in Minnesota. And in the open New Mexico seat, Republicans like their nominee, meteorologist Mark Ronchetti, who has high favorables from his time on Albuquerque TV. But there are little signs elsewhere that Rep. Ben Ray Lujan is on anything but a glide path to the Senate. We are shifting both states to the Solid Democratic column. We are keeping an eye on Louisiana, where Shreveport Mayor Adrian Perkins just announced a challenge to GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy. Perkins is a 35-year-old West Point graduate who was first Black cadet to serve as student body president in the institution's history. He served in Iraq and Afghanistan veteran who went on to Harvard Law School, where he also served as student government president too. That's a a very impressive resume, and Perkins marks another strong Black candidate recruitment effort for Democrats. For now, though, the race remains in Solid Republican, with the impetus on Perkins to prove he can both fundraise and pick off Republican and independent voters along with sullying Cassidy, which may be doable somewhat in a bad climate. Unfortunately for Perkins, he’s a candidate even many Republicans are privately praising, but one who’s running in a very, very difficult state for Democrats at the federal level. With graphics from Cook Political Report web editor Ally Flinn and research assistance from Cook Political Report intern Lev Cohen
The article raises very interesting points. There is sometimes an ironic reverse effect of "liberal" ideas. This supposed project in the article could disintegrate and disperse Black communities. For example, Philadelphia has really bad neighborhoods, but it is a Black musical powerhouse and a huge source of Black culture. Near UPenn, I know, there are some bad neighborhoods; but the place is great overall. That would be bad to break it up. (The Black people move out . . . and yuppies move in, perchance?) The ironic effect is similar to Planned Parenthood. Planned Parenthood was probably a racist (eugenicist) project of its founder, Margaret Sanger. https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/22/us/margaret-sanger-planned-parenthood-trnd/index.html Why? To stop Black people having babies. Yeah, I see how Planned Parenthood can be embraced by "liberals"; I also see how it could be a eugenics project! The relocation project also reminds me of the "Down to the Country" movement of the Cultural Revolution in China. But then, the stupid egghead sophisticates from the city were sent to Farmville to learn real life from real people. And the guy with the most calluses on his hand became the head of the hospital. (This all assumes "urban people" want to live the suburban (Karen?) life. . . .)
Basically... will Alabama vote to support trump and all he has done by electing an unqualified football coach, just because he wears an red R on his chest, or will they vote for a moderate that has actually done good things for the state and country. While all expectations they will vote for the football coach, if Jones does pull this out the chances that Democrats take over control of the senate increases dramatically.
The outright spending is rare but the strategy of hoping for the most radical of the other party to win the primary isn't that rare and it's been a frequent strategy used in states with open primaries. The problem with it though is has the danger of backfiring and in a red leaning state like KS there is a danger that Kobach wins both the primary and the general.
This is still AL and it took running a pedophile to cost the GOP the senate seat. At the moment I wouldn't put money on Jones.
senator perdue's campaign "unintentionally"protrayed his Jewish opponent with a big nose. Oops. Sen. Perdue takes down ad with doctored photo showing Jewish rival Ossoff with enlarged nose The GOP lawmaker's campaign said it was an 'unintentional error.' His Democratic opponent called it anti-Semitic. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/do...-doctored-photo-showing-jewish-rival-n1235074
After Labor Day if Trump isn't improving it might not be surprising to see GOP incumbents like Collins, Gardner and Ernst start distancing themselves more from Trump. We might see them outright criticizing him if they perceive that as their only hope win.
