July 15, 2020 - Biden Widens Lead Over Trump To 15 Points In Presidential Race, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Trump Job Approval Rating Drops To 36 Percent https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3666
Since trump can't do rallies... he is now trying to turn tax-payer paid news conference into rallies...
I don't agree I think Texas is more poised to flip than Georgia. I actually don't think it has to be an either or situation, TV ads are not that effective anyway.
And Hillary certainly made a mistake in this area, assuming the Rust Belt was locked up for her and trying to run up the margin by picking off other states. But we're in a different situation today, for so many reasons. Biden's got a much better favorability net rating than Hillary. There won't be many protest votes this time around, at all. And, more than anything, Covid-19 and race relations, where Trump is way, way underwater but keeps doubling down on 'Covid isn't real and will disappear soon' and blatant racism. So here's why I'd spend money in OH, IA, GA, and TX... It forces Trump to play defense and pour money into states that should be dark red but are, instead, tossups or "lean R." And Trump is already pouring money into those states, which would have been unimaginable pre-Covid and which allows Biden a lot more resources to spend in the Rust Belt states and FL. But that only works if Biden remains competitive in those red states. If Trump feels safe in TX, GA, and IA, he can stop spending resources there and go back to playing offense. Personally I'd prefer he continue to play defense and Biden continue to play offense.
He had been using daily briefings on COVID-19 as rallies before. In any normal administration all of this would be considered violation of election rules but this isn't even near the top ten of violations of ethics of this administration.
One big advantage that Biden has is that he doesn't actually need to spend a lot of his own money in states like TX. Leave it to outside groups to like Lincoln Project who frankly are doing a better job than Biden at crafting a message for moderates and right leaning voters.
I completely agree that the suburbs are the key. I think they are the key to the whole election. You're right not all suburbs are the same and the Houston Area suburbs are different from Milwaukee and even from Austin. I think Biden will have a hard time addressing specific oil and gas concerns while keeping consistent with the rest of his platform. Obviously politicians engage in double speak all the time but it gets harder with so much coverage and information sources also with running as the anti-Trump. Biden has to actually show that he's going to be honest and not just say pandering blatantly false stuff like he's going to bring coal back. If Biden were to go after Texas by trying to win over the oil and gas industry that will cost him in other places.
