I notice in your warning against cherry picking you cherry pick a poll. Even going so far as to say “let’s suspend belief”
So.... The Woodlands and Friendswood will be like the Trumper version of Chaz? Sounds like Something Texx and Daschuda would be all about.
I am using the poll they used in the article that you approvingly quoted and replied to and clutched your pearls at. I think it's pretty stupid - given the wealth of polling available these days - to do this kind of thing. The only reason why you'd do it would be if you were trying to argue something that the bulk of the data didn't support, such as the "it's 2016 all over again" canard - such as the analysts that you were quoting, whose beliefs align with your strongly held tenet that it's 2016 all over again You shouldn't do that. Nobody should do that. But, even if you do do that - it still fails for reasons stated.
Not clear... were the doctors amazed trump passed a cognitive test? Or that he would brag about doing so? So confusing...
Or why was he there taking such in depth cognitive tests to begin with? My guess is they were happy to see him functional after what was likely another mild stroke or after the stroke we all know he had some time ago. To be clear if he suffered a stroke that’s fine if he’s recovering but if he’s going to serve another term he needs to show the American people that he is cleaning up his health and losing weight. That’s the way the media needs to be presenting this to the public. Obviously something happened, be honest with us and show us how you are taking the steps to be healthy enough to serve another term.
Haha, I don't really get the strategy of uniting the few remaining Bernie bro holdouts around Biden....but I'm not a Lamborghini driving genius like Brad Parscale I know a lot of people joked about his self proclaimed digital death star. Is it really a Death Star? Seems more like a warehouse full of broken battle droid parts.
"campaign reboot"? I am not an expert, but that doesn't sound promising... as does staging the rally inside a small venue (but hey, glad my tax dollars are going towards Air Force One being used as a trump campaign prop). Trump’s reelection campaign gets a reboot as virus persists https://apnews.com/1dfdda0b79c7dc6e71f64090701353c4
Actually as noted the bulk of data still shows that there still is a possibility of Trump pulling it out. It's not a big possibility but nothing has shown that victory for Biden is guaranteed. Also the poll that you're referring to does show how remarkably similar this is to 2016. As far as "nobody should do that" as in consider possible counter evidence and argument just shows a dangerous level of overconfidence and is willfully blinding yourself. (It's an attitude no fan of Houston Sports or Democrats should have) An attitude that is very responsible for the position we're in.
I admit I thought that was pretty funny. That struck me as a skit someone on a late night show would make in response to the quote.
Fascinating article with a ton of details. I'm doing it a disservice by only cutting out a portion below. Read it when you have time. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/07/10/elissa-slotkin-congress-trump-351513 Elissa Slotkin Is Sounding the Alarm. Will Democrats Listen? She helped win Congress for the Democrats in 2018. Now she has a warning for her party.
Completely agree with her. The race is MUCH MUCH closer than people are aware of. Anecdotally I know NO ONE... NO ONE that voted for Trump before that isn't voting for him again, and most of those contacts I know are classified as suburban voters. Those same areas that delivered the House back to the Democrats. There are issues with the polling, but for the most part when step back in 2016 the polling did hold some truths. Hillary won the popular vote by 3. Going into election day I think she had a 2 point lead. So not that far off, but analyst and voters didn't really think about him squeaking by with an electoral college rust belt strategy while Hillary dramatically won the popular vote. Too many generalities, and not enough hyper targeted data. I do think the targeting is much more better in spurts now, and I think to forecast November you need to look pre-covid at Wisconsin first. I would refer people back to this poll done in August of last year. The political alignment of these folks in Wisconsin is still likely to be the same, but the current climate has changed with Covid and a massive recession. https://crooked.com/articles/pollercoaster-2020-whats-happening-wisconsin/ STILL... Democrats should assume that theres a good chance that there's a "coming home" stance that happens in the weeks and days leading up to the election. Democrats should assume that Joe Biden needs to perform really really good to win in November. I don't think it's wise to assume that the current climate will hold (nor will we WANT it to hold this bad) until November. Trump has a chance at lucking into a major drop in deaths due to drug treatments he has nothing to do with, or the announcement of a vaccine that he'll take credit for, or a mutation in the virus that turns it into a mild cold. If Trump gets ANY relief on Covid, no matter how terribly he handled the outbreak, and lives and bank accounts lost due to his incompetence, I fully believe that all of these voters would be forgiving and come home to him and help him win back the White House again.
