https://www.chrishopepolicy.com/202...ountries-with-a-low-flu-intensity-since-2018/ COVID-19 death rate is higher in European countries with a low flu intensity since 2018 Posted on 2 July 2020 by ch11 • 0 Comments Early in the COVID-19 pandemic I saw some data implying there were of the order of 30,000 people alive in the UK who would have been expected to die in the previous two flu seasons, but who didn’t die as both flu seasons were very mild. These people are likely to have been predominantly elderly, and in poor health. In other words, just those who have been found to be at highest risk of dying if infected with COVID-19. As the number of COVID-19 deaths in the UK rose, I kept expecting to see some analysis looking at a possible link between the COVID-19 deaths and the low intensity of the previous two flu seasons. But I didn’t see any. So I decided to do a very simple analysis myself. It turns out that, across 32 European countries, significantly more COVID-19 deaths have occurred where there have been fewer flu deaths in the past two flu seasons. Details and references are in a new working paper, published today. The relationship between COVID-19 deaths rates and previous flu intensity certainly looks as though it would be worth further and fuller investigation.
(Twitter thread) 8 weeks ago, the White House lauded #Texas as a model for containing COVID-19. Now @GregAbbott_TX's plan to reopen has unraveled as the state struggles to contain one of the worst outbreaks in the US. Here's how we got here. It was during the crucial 30-day period from Memorial Day until 6/26, health experts said, that state leaders failed to halt the reopening amid a sustained surge in positive tests, new cases & hospitalizations. That inaction, they said, let the pandemic spiral out of control. Here's that visual for just the #Houston area. A slow, then rapid increase in hospitalizations since the end of May. And it's still going up. How could state leaders let this happen? Well, remember, there was a lot of pressure in April for Gov. Abbott to reopen. 2 MILLION Texans had lost jobs, a historic oil bust darkened state revenue forecasts & hardline conservatives opposed his stay-home order in the first place. Abbott said he would reopen the state in phases based on data and guidance from medical professionals. But the state didn't meet his team's benchmarks, including a 2-week decline in cases, ability to test 30k daily and hire 4,000 contact tracers. In May, the reopening appeared to be a success. +test rate [Downwards arrow], cases & hospitalizations flat. But research showed Texans had stopped distancing. And testing lagged far behind state's goal of 30k daily. If a surge in cases was looming, state leaders would have trouble seeing it. Then in final week of May, potential super spreader events: Memorial Day gatherings, George Floyd protests throughout the state. And simply an increasing number of residents letting their guard down. By June 12, Abbott had allowed bars to expand to half capacity and restaurants to three-quarters. The same day, Texas set a new record of more than 2,100 COVID hospitalizations. The volume of new cases made contact tracing difficult. 6/22: Abbott says the virus is spreading an an unacceptable rate. Then, he reverses the reopening: 6/25: He suspends elective surgeries to free up hospital space 6/26: He again closes bars And yesterday: Abbott issues mask order for most of Texas Will those measures be enough? @PeterHotez is doubtful, pointing to a new UPenn model predicting daily cases would Upwards arrow 3x in the largest Texas counties within the next 4 weeks, if there is no change in social distancing practices. Another lockdown may the only way out, he warned: Spoiler “We’re on the verge of a nightmarish catastrophe,” said Vivian Ho, a health economist at Rice University and the Baylor College of Medicine. “On May 1, I thought we actually had a chance to get this virus under control and get the economy opened up safely. I’m not sure we can get it under control anymore.” Public health experts say the worst of the crisis was avoidable in Texas, where Abbott stripped local officials of the ability to manage their own outbreaks and until Thursday refused to mandate masks and other basic mitigation practices. The governor reopened before the state could adequately monitor the virus, health experts said, then ignored signs in late May that infections were beginning to run rampant. ... Spokesmen for Abbott and state Health Commissioner Dr. John Hellerstadt did not respond to requests for comment. Asked at a televised town hall Thursday why he had not mandated masks sooner, the governor said the “data was only recently bad.” “It was only in the past couple of weeks that we saw this spike in people testing positive,” Abbott said. ... On April 27, Abbott said he would reopen the state in phases based on data and guidance from medical professionals, pledging not to simply “open up and hope for the best.” His advisers laid out four criteria to guide the reopening: a two-week reduction in cases, hospital capacity for all patients, the ability to to conduct 30,000 daily viral tests and hire 4,000 contact tracers. Abbott, however, did not commit to following them. Only in mid-June would the state begin meeting its testing goal. It has yet to hire enough contact tracers or see a sustained drop in infections. He said the plan was designed to be applied regionally, with lighter restrictions imposed in areas with few cases, then overruled officials from large counties who tried to enact more restrictive edicts. Abbott punctuated that point by effectively gutting Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo’s April 22 mask order when he stripped the ability of local governments to punish residents who violated such mandates. Several prominent Republicans, including Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw, had condemned Hidalgo’s order and its potential $1,000 fine as an abuse of power. They have continued to argue that the severity of the virus is being embellished, and some have even questioned whether masks are effective at stopping it from spreading. ... Shortly after, he amended his stay-at-home order to remove the threat of jail time after a Dallas businesswoman was booked for opening her salon in defiance of the governor’s restrictions. He also allowed barbers and hair salons to reopen May 8, a week earlier than his original timeline. By mid-May, as Abbott allowed bars and restaurants to resume with limited capacity, the reopening appeared to be a success. Leaders of the Texas Medical Center, many of whom had pushed for a longer stay-home period, approved of the expanded reopening. There were signs of potential trouble, however. Researchers from the Children’s Hospital of Pennsylvania predicted a spike in cases based on cell phone data showing that without stay-at-home restrictions, far fewer Texans were socially distancing. And testing continued to lag far behind Abbott’s goal of 30,000 daily viral tests, averaging less than 20,000 for the first half of May If a surge in cases was looming, state leaders would have trouble seeing it. More visible warning signs appeared in late May and early June, when viral videos over the Memorial Day weekend showed crowded outdoor gatherings and protesters, including local Democratic leaders, filled the streets of cities and towns across the state to protest the police killing of George Floyd. Public health authorities expressed concern that the events — including a 60,000-person rally in downtown Houston on June 2 — would hasten the spread of the virus. ... It was during the crucial 30-day period from Memorial Day until June 26, health experts said, that state leaders failed to halt the reopening amid a sustained surge in positive tests, new cases and hospitalizations. That inaction, they said, let the pandemic spiral out of control. By June 12, Abbott had allowed bars to expand to half capacity and restaurants to three-quarters. The same day, Texas set a record of more than 2,100 COVID hospitalizations. Concerned about a spike in cases around San Antonio, Bexar County Judge Nelson Wolff asked for Abbott’s permission to mandate mask wearing. The governor said no. “Judge Wolff and I have a philosophical difference,” Abbott told KSAT viewers in San Antonio. “He believes in government mandates, I believe in individual responsibility.” At a June 16 news conference, Abbott said he was concerned but not alarmed by the worsening pandemic, noting thousands of hospital beds remained available statewide. He said infections in residents under 30 were driving the surge, the “age group that is going to bars a whole lot more.” Ho, the health economist, said the governor’s decision to let bars, clubs and gyms reopen sent the wrong message to young Texans, who are largely driving the recent spike in cases. “If the government tells us it’s safe to go, then they think, ‘well, it must be safe to go,’” Ho said. ... If Abbott’s team does not quickly implement a new strategy to stanch the spread of the virus, the state could see a ghastly jump in deaths through the rest of the summer, warned Baylor College of Medicine immunologist Dr. Peter Hotez. He cited a new Children’s Hospital of Pennsylvania model predicting daily cases would more than triple in the largest Texas counties within the next four weeks, if there is no change in social distancing practices. “If these projections are even halfway right, there’s no health system in the country that can accommodate this,” Hotez said. “With this kind of dramatic acceleration, I don’t see how you put this back unless you do a full lockdown — as hard, and as wrenching, and as devastating as that is.” The governor said Thursday if residents comply with his mask order, “more extreme measures may be avoided.” The chorus of conservatives who blasted Harris County’s April mask rules raised no public objection to the state order’s potential $250 fine. That evening, the state announced 7,382 hospitalized COVID patients, a new record.
If a statewide lock down is the only way to prevent a human catastrophe, I don't see how it can be avoided, as painful as that would be. Abbott let the Genie out of the bottle.
My 76 year old grandmother just got tested pre heart surgery. She was positive. No symptoms. Nothing. She doesn't believe she has it. She's in denial. Think it was a false positive. I tried to explain to her that it may be a milder strain. Not having it. She still wants to do what she wants.
1 of my friends works at Memorial...they think they’ll be at full capacity if things continue like they’ve been for another 3 days vast majority of new admissions are Covid-related...nobody comes to the ER anymore...admissions for things like heart attacks are way down
I see this data as very misleading. I am of the belief that perhaps 5-10x as many people have had this virus as is being reported. People would be shocked if they found out the true number, but so many young people never got tested due to no symptoms. I believe this swept through NY a few months earlier than Texas and Florida. People have already had it and have recovered and are testing negative. Otherwise how do you explain the tiny number of deaths in Texas and Florida? Especially compared to NY? Texas has 91 deaths per million people. NY has over 1,600 deaths per million people. Not even close. ...and ATW - Germany has 108 deaths per million, which is worse than Texas.
Seems like the peak is just coming in Texas. We had it earlier. Also, Germany is much more densely populated than Texas. I'm actually a bit surprised by how badly Houston seems to be hit right now, considering that most people just sit in their cars by themselves.
The virus spread is exponential. Especially after July 4rth right now the number of infected is at max level and will be double tomorrow. Houston needs at least a month of total lockdown to put this under control. Seriously..just Hide. Take your days off now and dont leave your houses. Dont step out of the house without a mask. The situation each day will be doubly worse until the government intervenes with lockdown. You dont want to be one of those unlucky people who just got infected in the last moments before the lockdown, because Karen in the grocery store didnt wear a mask.
Houston’s deaths aren’t increasing anywhere near the rate of case growth. A grand total of 5 people died with this in Harris county yesterday.
