When you interpret seroprevalence, serology, antibody only data, please keep the incomplete nature of that assessment in terms of the broader cellular immune response to #SARSCoV2. _______ I've been preaching this for months.
^ Long article (I didn't even post all of it, because of the limit on characters), but definitely worth a read.
Yeah I think Ben Taub and LBJ will need help from Methodist or MD Anderson. I don't think Memorial Hermann is on the brink but I also don't think they're sitting on cash. No clue about the CHI hospitals.
Hospitalizations don't show any signs of slowing, but the 7 day percent positive on testing has been stable around 14.5% for the past 4 days. That could mean it's possibly topping out. Active case growth does seem to be slowing, but I think we won't know where things stand for another week or so. 7 day fatality average did move up to 33 today from around 30 where it has been at. Also, I did see on another positive note that Trump indicated he might start wearing a mask in large groups. I know anytime I say that name people have commentary, but that would be a very positive sign to see. I'll leave my commentary at that.
I completely agree..it's a step in the right direction. My commentary is it took way too long with way too much resistance from him. He's supposed to be a leader.
If cases have 33% increase each day, combined with 20% needing hospitalization and 5% needing ICU care. They are going to cancel their elective procedures whether they want to or not. Basic inpatients with COVID have fast turnaround to discharge, sometimes as little as 24 hours. They will fill up the hospital floors, but it won’t be catastrophic. The ICU patients stay for about 2-4 weeks. The major hospitals have surge capacity for expanding their ICUs but as your expand you have medical staff who are not familiar or comfortable with treating critically ill patients so it’s suboptimal. I am not going to prognosticate, but if cases grow unabated and hospitalization usage is the same, it’s going to be an awful Summer for us all.
My bigger concern than this summer (which I don't disagree with you, is a concern) is when flu season hits in the Fall. If cases still look like this then, that's going to be a bad outcome.
What’s stunning about that? Fauci is not cancelling anything. Political and business leaders make those decisions after weighing the values of their constituents, customers, and the public good. Fauci gives expert guidance but he did not cancel the NBA. The major sport leagues should be able to make appropriate modifications to reduce risk for team staff and players while we can watch live on TV like they are planning for the NBA.
For sure. The upside is that the COVID mitigation strategies work for influenza as well. I read Japan had a shortened influenza season as a result of their initial COVID response. If that new Swine flu takes off, all bets are off.
Went in for a physical and bloodwork for COVID antibodies was positive. My wife and I self-quarantined a week before NYC overall and still somehow got it. We never even knew it... I am starting to think that the majority of New Yorkers had contact with the virus, which was why it got so bad and why things are now better. Herd immunity?
Last estimate I read was 20% for all of NYC and less than 10% for Manhattan itself for COVID exposure based on antibodies. The other boroughs were wrecked. If the Chinese antibody study is to be believed, these antibodies last two months on average so it doesn’t even matter. I’ll be able to say anecdotally if it is true when my positive antibody coworkers get retested in a few months for our research study.
My anecdotal experience in Tulsa, OK the last couple days is this place is awful regarding mask wearing. I stopped at a gas station 20 minutes ago and none of the employees and maybe 1/15 patrons was wearing a mask.
i think the real problem with flu season is the diagnostics. Tons of people are going to be coming in with all the same symptoms and it's going to be a giant pain in the ass to figure out if they have the flu or Covid. So now flu patients might have to deal with similar quarantine-care until they are confirmed to "just have the flu".
Are you in NYC? From Cuomo's press conference a couple of weeks ago, they found that about 21% of NYC resident already has the antibody. It's as high as 32.6% in the Bronx. That agrees pretty well with the idea that there are about 10x of diagnosed cases. NYC has about 220k diagnosed cases. If there are actually 10x cases, then that's 2.2 million exposed people in a city of 8.4 million, about 26%. Unfortunately that's still not enough for herd immunity since that's going to need around 60%, but it definitely helps to slow down the infection rate. I am hoping that when a vaccine comes out, the percentage of people with antibody + the people willing to get the vaccine will push us above the herd immunity threshold. Some polls have shown that only about 50% of Americans are willing to get the vaccine if it's available. I think the drastic reduction in NYC is still due to social distancing. From google's mobility report on Jun 27, New York county's mobility numbers compared to baseline numbers are: -72% retail, -29% grocery, -37% parks, -60% transit, -30% workplace, and +9 residential. In comparison, Harris county's numbers are -28% retail, -7% grocery, -25% parks, -40% transit, -18% workplace, and +9% residential.
There are respiratory panels that have RSV Influenza and SARS CoV 2 testing that were in use during the beginning of the pandemic but were discontinued when the influenza rates fell off.
I would think encounter density matters more than how much an area has improved. Looking at unacast's data, it appears new yorkers still encounter other people more often than a person in Harris County did prior to social distancing.