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As we start to "re-open"

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by ThatBoyNick, Apr 24, 2020.

  1. ROXTXIA

    ROXTXIA Member

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    I like their slant: "Over 300 cities had some kind of rioting...."
    Scare those old white folks to Keep America RACIS...er, GREAT! Ay, Tony the Tiger?

    "America's GRRRRRRRRRRRREAT!"
     
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  2. Amiga

    Amiga Member

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    This one suggests a net decrease.

    https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408.pdf

    These two national movements: the fight to contain COVID-19, and the Black Lives Matter protests for reform in law enforcement and for greater social equality, have espoused some tactics which appear to be in direct opposition to one another. Specifically, one of the main tactics for controlling the spread of COVID-19 is social distancing: avoiding large public gatherings, and maintaining at least 6 feet of distance between individuals (Australian Government Department of Health. 2020; Public Health England. 2020; Public Health Agency of Canada. 2020; White House 2020). At the same time, protests, designed to galvanize public action for social justice, are by definition large public gatherings in which it is difficult to avoid close contact with others. This mismatch of tactics has drawn many in the public health community to speculate that the protest movement could lead to a surge in COVID-19 cases (Bacon 2020; Goldberg 2020; Harmon and Rojas 2020). On the other hand, other public health experts have made the argument that the goals of the protests may be worth the costs (Simon 2020). 2 However, whether the Black Lives Matter protests actually caused an increase in the spread of COVID-19 is an open question. While the protests themselves were large gatherings that do not match well with social distancing guidelines, the protesting population is not the only one that may have a behavioral response. For example, other individuals who did not wish to participate in the protests, perhaps due to fear of violence from police clashes or general unrest, may have chosen to avoid public spaces while protests were underway. This could have an offsetting effect, increasing social distancing behavior in other parts of the population. The net effect, on both social distancing and on the spread of COVID-19 is thus an empirical question, and the focus of this study. Using anonymous cell phone tracking data from SafeGraph, Inc., as well as data on the local prevalence of COVID-19 from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, we demonstrate that cities which had protests saw an increase in social distancing behavior for the overall population relative to cities that did not. In addition, we find no evidence that net COVID-19 case growth differentially rose following the onset of Black Lives Matter protests, and even modest evidence of a small longer-run case growth decline. These results make an important contribution not only to the current discussion around policies for controlling the spread of disease, but also to the understanding of human behavior of the general population during periods of civil unrest
     
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  3. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Member
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    lol, I see what you did there :D
     
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  4. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Member

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  5. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Member

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    Montgomery County numbers continue to climb...

     
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  6. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Member

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    I guess better late than never... now if the pumpkin in chief could worry a little less about smearing his makeup and show some leadership for a change...

     
  7. deb4rockets

    deb4rockets Member
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  8. deb4rockets

    deb4rockets Member
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    This is weird. Why is the Ready Harris showing such low numbers for Harris County?
    Screenshot_20200629-213836.png
    The Worldometer site showed over 1453 cases in Harris County yesterday.
    Screenshot_20200629-214441.png
    Texas Medical Center site is also different, but includes several counties, and is still lower than what Worldometer has for Harris County alone.

    d-covid-19-positive-case-growth-trend-6-29-2020.png
     
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  9. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Member

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  10. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Member

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    Even the simplest, most common-sense approach is out-of-reach of our current leadership whose incompetence has contributed to thousands of needless American deaths...

     
  11. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Member

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    If this is the thinking in Conroe ISD, imagine the conversations going on in Houston, or Arizona, or Florida...

    Conroe ISD superintendent says COVID-19 case spike could prevent in-class teaching
    https://www.chron.com/neighborhood/...(Desktop)&utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral
     
  12. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    This is national. Schools will not be able to reopen short of action by the Senate that Moscow Mitch is currently blocking.

    That is not remotely acceptable.
     
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  13. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Member

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    This is how bad it is in Arizona...


     
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  14. deb4rockets

    deb4rockets Member
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    I said the same thing when we kept allowing cruise ships to sail, even as the pandemic was spreading abroad. I said the same thing when we kept allowing flights to and from the US from Europe, even after it had spread there from China. Everything we did was too little, too late. Nothing has changed.

    At least Europe was able to contain between countries, but in America the spread across the states is inevitable. We have thousands of flights daily across America, to and from the sunny and warm coasts of California, Florida, and Texas from all parts of the country. Oh, and I can't leave out Vegas.

    All these people go back to their states, mask free, partying and socializing in mask free environments where laws are lax, and then act surprised when all of a sudden they are the next Texas or Florida. Meanwhile, Abbott sits back and knee jerks after the fact to it all.

    A business that has a large group of people drinking, dancing, socializing, or eating indoors is still a group. Calling it a bar or not to make it legal is just words. Maybe that will change AFTER the Texas State Republican Convention pours into Houston "mask not required". So wait until after July 18th to see further knee jerk reactions here.
     
  15. Amiga

    Amiga Member

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    thats quite an eye popping statement to make concerning mask effectiveness for the economy

    is there a link to the source of this GS quotes ?
     
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  16. deb4rockets

    deb4rockets Member
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    That brought years to my eyes. Putting point values on lives is so inhumane and heartbreaking.
     
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  17. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Atomic Playboy
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    [​IMG]
     
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  18. deb4rockets

    deb4rockets Member
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  19. rocketsjudoka

    rocketsjudoka Member

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    This is good info and relates to one of the questions that I have is why hasn't Minnesota seen a massive increase in COVID-19 cases since the George Floyd protest.
     
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  20. jchu14

    jchu14 Member

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    ReadyHarris has a different reporting method than other sites. From the 'disclaimer' section of the dashboard


    So if someone took a started feeling sick 10 days ago, got tested 3 days later, and results just came back today, on ReadyHarris, the positive case count would be added to 10 days ago. On Worldmeter and TMC, they would put the positive case on the day that the result came back.

    There are pros and cons in each method. I think the ReadyHarris method is actually better epidemiologically since it tries to remove the effect of the delay of testing and reporting. However, it inevitably shows that the cases dropping off precipitously in the last few days. This can give people a false sense of security thinking that things are getting better.

    At least ReadyHarris tells you explicitly the method they use. The Arizona site and the Georgia site doesn't even tell you that they're back dating positive results.
    https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report
    https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/...se-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php
     
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