No that is not at all what I'm saying....but anyway, what is the thing that you think will change and what is your case for the impact of will have?
There have been several houses that have literally removed their Trump signs and flags....... I thought I would never see that... T_Man
Trump was in a similar hole in 2016, albeit against a much more unpopular candidate than Biden. He seems to be looking to create an alt-right boost, similar to the one he got in 2016 when Bannon joined his campaign. But I don't think it will have the same effect this time. One, because times have changed, of course, but also because he won't get the same social media echo and coverage that Bannon and Breitbart provided. And Trump's "Death Star" media machine doesn't seem quite up to the job. Knock on wood, of course.
I think a lot of people too just expected Clinton to win. No one seriously believed Trump, he was underestimated, no one saw that he tapped into something there. I'm sure they are going to throw some dirt on Biden when it comes time to vote but I don't think it'll have the same effect. People KNOW how bad Trump is now. Before, he was a wildcard, there were even some liberals who shrugged and thought "Eh, maybe he'll shake things up," but now they know he's really that bad. It's sort of like overhyped NBA rookie that gets cut from a team and the first team that trades for him pays a lot...then he goes to the next team... his value is a lot lower. He's still "young" and maybe there is some chance he'll reach his "potential" but the chances are slim to none. Everyone knows the guy is what he is. I think at this point Trump is what he is, everyone knows what he is, and everyday he reminds them it isn't pretty (which is why he keeps dipping in the polls) They would do best to hide him, but they can't. I also think you're right, he's doubling down on his base (which I think is a mistake) and I think it's losing him the vote he really needs, suburban white demo, that could lose him the states he carried. If he actually loses Texas, Florida, Georgia then it will come at a huge cost to the GOP. I can't see him losing those states and the GOP winning anything. If 2 of those states go blue then it really was a bloodbath, not only on the senate and congress level, but local elections too. Right now the polls are not good. So much can change though. They could have a come home moment, Biden going too hard after gun control or something making conservatives rally for a cause...but it's also possible, especially with all that's going on, things just get worse. Like, the polls are bad now, sure, but he could also lose more of his base. Should be interesting.
Also, the polls are making him spend time in states he normally wouldn't. That's going to hurt him and the GOP Like he's having to be in Arizona instead of Minnesota or something...these polls put a lot of states in play and makes Trump defend states that he should be safely winning and lets Biden basically consider these states as bonus. I mean we might see some resources spent here in Texas for sure but I don't think Biden expects to win it, he'll do what he can and hopes it happens while focusing on states that are more in his reach but these polls should put Trump on defense.
WaPo reporting on the WSJ editorial this morning: https://www.washingtonpost.com/nati...e-updates-us/#link-6JDZS4RX5NHKTDPIYI7RRIJDGI 7:16 a.m. Trump ‘wasted his chance’ to show leadership on coronavirus, Wall Street Journal editorial says In a blistering editorial warning that President Trump could face a “historic repudiation” in November, the Wall Street Journal criticizes him for having “wasted his chance to show leadership” on the coronavirus pandemic and says his “default now is defensive self-congratulation.” The staunchly conservative Journal editorial board, which at times has not pulled its punches in assessing Trump’s presidency, writes that his record in fighting the coronavirus “is better than his critics claim after a bad start in late February and March” and credits him for mobilizing federal forces to help hard-hit states. “But he wasted his chance to show leadership by turning his daily pandemic pressers into brawls with the bear-baiting press and any politician who didn’t praise him to the skies,” the editorial says. “Lately he has all but given up even talking about the pandemic when he might offer realism and hope about the road ahead even as the country reopens. His default now is defensive self-congratulation.” The Journal also faults Trump for failing to provide “firm but empathetic leadership after the death of George Floyd” and says that Trump may soon need another nickname for Joe Biden other than “Sleepy Joe.” “How does President-elect sound?” the editorial asks. By John Wagner
There have also been a few well attended Trump boat parades in our area. One of the waitresses at our golf club likes it when we are there because we are one of the only couples she can talk freely with about how bad Trump is.
Gee, can anyone with a trump decoder ring help decipher trump's answer to hannity's softball question "What are your top priorities for your second term?"
Cook Political Report... Trump Is in a Deep Hole. Can He Dig Himself Out Before November? Amy Walter June 26, 2020 Every single poll that has come out in these last two weeks has painted a dire picture for President Donald Trump's chances at re-election. His overall job approval rating sits somewhere around 41 percent. He's down by an average of 9-10 points to Joe Biden. But we also know that it is only June. And, for those of us who covered the 2016 campaign, we feel as if we've been here before. After all, back in June of 2016, Hillary Clinton led Trump by anywhere from 4 to 10 points. Trump was deeply unpopular back then and still won. So, can Trump to turn things around this year like he did in 2016? The biggest challenge for Trump is that he’s not the outsider anymore. He’s in charge. And, when you are in charge you need to prove that you are effective at dealing with the issues currently enveloping the country. Today, those issues are racial justice and the coronavirus. Right now, voters see him flailing on both. To change those perceptions, Trump needs to meet the moment. Instead, he is doubling down on his divisive racial rhetoric and continuing to take a dismissive approach to COVID-19. By the fall, it’s fair to think the country could be wrangling with another set of issues, which could allow Trump to reset opinions of his presidency. Even so, he can't simply erase these last few weeks from voters' memories. By the time we hit the fall, it's probably going to be too late. The other option is to try and make this race a referendum on Biden. This requires the Trump campaign to do two things: Drive up Biden's negatives Get Trump to cede the spotlight and make room in a news cycle for negative narratives about Biden to get through. As my colleague Charlie Cook has written, Biden starts the race with a stronger image than Clinton had at this point in the 2016 cycle. A Quinnipiac poll taken in late June of 2016 found Clinton's favorable/unfavorable rating deeply underwater at -20. The most recent Quinnipiac poll puts Biden's at -4. As important, voters don't feel as intensely negative about Biden as they did about Clinton or they still do about Trump. The latest New York Times/Sienna poll found that 50 percent of voters rated Trump VERY unfavorably to just 25 percent who felt this way about the former Vice President. This means it is just going to be a lot harder for Team Trump, as the LA Times' Mark Barabak wrote this week, to make Joe Biden into Hillary Clinton. Trying to turn Biden into Bernie Sanders or a member of the House "Squad" is likely to fall flat too. Trump basically conceded this point at his rally last weekend in Tulsa, telling the crowd that Biden "is not radical left" and "was never radical left." But, in keeping with the president's attempt to frame the former Vice President as a senile and "sleepy" candidate, Trump said that Biden would be a "helpless puppet of the radical left." Where Trump is obsessed with Biden's physical and mental fitness, the SuperPAC supporting Trump's re-election, America First Action, has focused on Biden's long tenure in office, arguing in ads that they are running in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, that "Biden's been wrong for too long" on issues ranging from NAFTA to China to fracking. I think that this is a more effective line of argument. Voters already know that Biden is old. They know that he often trips over his own words and is an easy punchline. But, his record — especially on issues like trade and the Iraq War — is the more problematic and salient. Another sign that Biden lacks the polarizing profile of other Democratic figures (i.e. Hillary Clinton or Nancy Pelosi) is that Republican congressional candidates are barely mentioning him in their ads. If you watched a bunch of GOP primary ads, you'd think that Trump was running against China or President Xi instead of a guy named Joe Biden. I asked the ad tracking firm, Advertising Analytics, to tell me how many GOP congressional ads run between mid-March and mid-June featured an attack on Joe Biden and how many featured criticism of China. There were 50 unique GOP ads that featured an attack on China as a country that has "cheated us," or "stolen our jobs," or brought us the coronavirus. There were only two congressional ads that mentioned Biden or tried to link him to their opponent. A GOP candidate in GA-14 attached Biden to radical elements of the party, while Arizona GOP Senate candidate Martha McSally claims in her ad that her Democratic opponent, Mark Kelly, "will help Joe Biden pass a new government-controlled health care system." At the presidential level, however, the Trump campaign is doing its best to link Biden to his past support of trade deals that would benefit China and his son's private business dealings there. But, given Trump's own statements about his trust in Xi at the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, the Biden campaign and Democrats have plenty of ammunition to at least hold Republicans to a draw on the issue. However, one of the biggest impediments to driving up Biden's unfavorable ratings is the president himself. Trump is unable to take himself out of the spotlight, even when it would benefit him. In fact, we may all look back next year and point to two unnecessary public appearances — the one in front of St. John's church that required the military to clear peaceful protesters in front of the White House and the rally in Tulsa in the middle of a spike in COVID infections — that sealed his political fate. The Trump campaign and GOPers know that they can't afford this election to be a referendum on Trump. But, the president himself can't help but ensure that it is. https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/...ump-deep-hole-can-he-dig-himself-out-november
I've been saying this for a while.... There were just soooooooooo many people who hated Hillary both repubs and dems, so Trump had the perfect storm... T_Man
Here's a few thoughts on things that could change Trump's reelection fortunes. 1. The economy could turn around. The stock market has jumped back and we've seen some improvement in unemployment numbers. I don't think COVID-19 is anywhere close to over but the reaction to it is what is changing. Even with recent surges we're still seeing things reopen more and many more people pushing to go back to normal. By November while there are still a lot of cases people just either get used to it and go back to work and/or ignore it. 2. On COVID-19 itself it is still possible a treatment could come out before November that could greatly diminish the disease. 3. Some sort of disaster that causes a rally around the flag. This could be a natural disaster or a terrorist attack. Trump has a very low bar in regards to what people consider a good job. If there is a major disaster and he actually handles it just OK, there will be a perception that will be touted in the media that Trump is acting presidential and will capitalize on the rally around the flag. 4. Trump is making law and order a central feature of his campaign. Last weekend we had several shootings in Minneapolis with 11 people shot Saturday night in the tony Uptown neighborhood. While there still is momentum for defunding and disbanding MPD there are a lot of voices now talking about the need to keep LE around. At the same time gun sales are surging in MN. While most Americans are sympathetic to BLM there still is a lot of fear among white suburban voters of urban crime. The suburbs are going to be key to whoever wins the election and if we seen an increase in crime in crime Trump could exploit that by playing upon white and suburban fears. Frankly we don't know but given how chaotic and unexpected things have been the first 6 months of 2020 we should expect that there might be many more things that could change. Consider in 2019 pandemic certainly was a possibility along with massive civil unrest following a killing of a black person by an LEO. That both could happen and play out the way it has I doubt many could've foreseen that. Besides anything else unexpected happening to take on your Bayesian inference. Yes we can factor in bad poll numbers with Trump and that he doesn't seem to be changing to say that he should lose. I agree he should lose. You can keep on dismissing 2016 but that is most recent election with the same candidate running and in June of 2016 many were making the same Bayesian inference since the number looked the same and Trump appeared to be just as self-destructive then as now. While Trump has never had a majority approval his numbers even through what is the worst stretch of his presidency have still held to the low 40%. He won the election with only 46% of the electorate. It doesn't take much of a shift for him to win again. Call it not counting your chickens until they hatch, or trying to kill the clock in the second quarter but this election is far from over. For those of us who want to see Trump defeated we need to keep the focus on defeating Trump and be prepared for changes.
LOL, no it won't, see the last month of "reopening" that generated a little hype, then a ****ing disaster that is unfolding across the country. - the v-shaped recovery is a pipe dream. I assign this probablilty of the economy spontaneously reopening with no covid19 treatment at about 1% or less. They tried this plan. This plan did not work. Next..... Hope for a miracle cure, ok that ones covered...next You mean like, a giant global pandemic that requires national sacrifice? An economic catstrophe? Widespread civil awakening over a tragedy? Then he'll start acting "presidential" and get rallied around? OK! Interesting theory......next.... He tried this for the last 4 weeks and it already failed. He can't even remember to do it when he's served up softballs, and there's no evidence it's working at all - his support cratered since hevtrotted this out.
https://theweek.com/articles/921970/trump-crashing-burning "Trump isn't talking about the issues that matter most. He's talking about lobsters, 'Obamagate,' flag burning, and Confederate monuments because he doesn't want — can't afford — to talk about three crises: the health crisis, the economic crisis, and his presidency."
It’s a shame those cuts where Fox ******** on Biden even though Trump is worse by every metric. They cannot disagree with Trump because they have a corporate mission to adhere to
Do you have any data that says we need to take "most recent election with the same candidate running" over "what the polls say"
The answer for anyone who has been paying attention for the past 4 years is an overwhelming NO. He is not changing his tactics, and who he is. He's Donald Trump, and he's a demagogue who is the worst president in history, but one that also gets graded on a curve unlike any other president would be allowed to preside under. However... THE COUNTRY can recover from our current situation, and man I hope it does. This sucks. If the Country recovers, I do believe low information voters, and "come home to the GOP" voters will potentially come back to Trump. What Trump will have going for him in November is if people are talking about Tom Brady with the Bucs, and The Voice vs. the cluster F$%@ that currently is the United States of America.
