Hmm... Donald Trump Should Forget Texas June 8, 2020 by Robert Martin Politics Twitter was shocked last week to see a Quinnipiac poll of Texas, at State Trump won 9 points in 2016, as a tossup, with a one point Trump lead. While many people couldn’t believe the result, it’s right in line with what the LeanTossup model has in Texas, and confirms our broader theory of the election: Biden has drawn back some amount of white non-College voters back to the party, and is at historic levels of White College and Hispanic votes (and with somewhat increased African American turnout). However, this article isn’t about electoral trends, or about the national environment. It’s simply an article about why the Trump (and the GOP at large) can’t spend money to defend Texas. The argument against it is simple really. Trump needs Texas to be firmly in his column to even have a decent shot at the presidency. A close race in Texas isn’t just a close race in Texas, since Texas still (and for many years after 2020) will still vote to the right of the national lean. A close race in Texas means Trump is losing almost every other battleground on the map. The Midwest would be completely gone, with razor thin margins in Iowa and Ohio. Florida, Arizona and North Carolina would be assuredly Biden wins, with the strong possibility that Georgia has also flipped to Biden as well. The bottom line is that a close Texas is unsustainable to Trump’s re-election chances. In this way, losing Texas isn’t even the problem, it’s losing everything else. To use another analogy, it’s death by a thousand cuts, but in this case Texas is cut 9,999, in which case the Presidency was lost long before Texas would be called for Biden. So what’s the answer to Trump’s problem? It’s actually simple: ignore Texas. Don’t spend any money in Texas and possibly even Georgia at all. Trump’s only hope of winning is the Midwest, with wins in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa, and possibly even Minnesota (to make up for other losses elsewhere). Additionally, Trump needs to win North Carolina and Florida to continue to have a chance to win the election. In this way, with so many other needed targets, the Trump campaign can’t afford to spend money in Texas at all, as that money would be much better spent in the Midwest or Florida instead. If the Trump campaign went all out, and immediately started spending money in Texas today, they would probably keep Texas in the GOP column in November. However, that alone represents such a low bar, and would effectively concede the election to Biden. Every phrase Trump speaks, every policy he announces needs to be aimed at winning back White Non-College voters in the Midwest, not attempting to appeal to business owners in Fort Worth. If Trump can (through what would look to be a miracle at this point) win back all of the states he won in 2016, and flip Minnesota, then he can actually safely lose Texas. However, that’s the entire point. When your house is on fire, the first thing you do isn’t rush to put out the deck, you let it burn and hope that part of the fire will burn itself out. With so many other problem areas, Trump needs a focused, sustained campaign on winning back those crucial swing states, and by spending money in Texas, an expensive state which he cannot afford to lose, he would effectively gift Biden the Midwest, and the Electoral College votes he needs to win the White House in November. Robert Martin is founder and CEO of LeanTossUp.ca and a contributor to Decision Desk HQ. https://decisiondeskhq.com/donald-trump-should-forget-the-alamo-and-the-rest-of-texas/
Laughable that ditzy kaleigh is making noise about trump getting *8%* of votes of African Americans and lying about Romney getting 2% (he actually got 6%, but why tell the truth when trump wants a lie). But the more important fact... trump's 8% is actually below the average for recent republican presidents. Even when you factor in President Obama's appeal that drove down McCann's percentage to a low of 4%, the average for republican presidential candidates since 1984 was 9%. So trump is below average. GWB had 10%, GHWB had 10.5%, Reagan had 11.5%, and Gerald Ford had the high of 17%. trump's 8%... LOL. https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/268517/analyzing-black-support-president-trump.aspx
Trump's new campaign ad states that " a record 2.5 million NEW jobs in May". This is patently false, but what else should we expect from him.?
I'm trying to understand the reasoning. Does the writer think Trump can win even if he loses Texas? I haven't looked at the polls but I have a hard time seeing Trump winning without Texas. The three other large population states are firmly in Dem hands and along with the whole West Coast, Northeast and I'm going to throw Nevada and CO in their too. That would require him sweeping the rest of the South which is possible and pretty much sweeping the rest of the Midwest. A very tall order. If Texas goes blue it's over.
That's basically what the writer is saying...Trump might as well ignore Texas because if he spends too much there and not enough in the Midwest, he loses and if he loses Texas, he loses. His only chance is to spend more money in the swing states and hope that Texas stays red on its own without changing his spending levels. Probably the right call, but Cornyn probably won't be too happy about that...not that Cornyn really matters much to Trump
teehee, No, no. He's saying if Trump loses Texas, he'll have also lost several other states he needs to also win. And if he invests to save Texas, he will neglect these other, more precarious states. So his best shot is to just pray he keeps Texas and focus on the battleground. If his prayer to keep Texas doesn't work, that means he never had a chance anyway. My alternative view on this question: this election has potential to be a laugher, depending on what further calamities we have in store for the next couple of months and whatever bizarre leadership he'll offer in response. If Trump is looking at a resounding defeat, he might want to defend states like Texas just to keep Biden from dunking on his head and running up the score.
I think the author was looking for "clicks" by posting a flashy looking article title like... "trump can't win Texas so he should quit trying"...
Are you guys celebrating in here? I have a running bet for Trump to win the re-election, loser donates to the tip jar, either ways Clutch will be the winner. Any more takers here? State the amount of money you want to bet. I have 3 takers so far. I’m keeping an excel spreadsheet. Will tell you guys when I reach my limit, the more sure you guys are, the more my limit will increase. I know Clutch will be happy after the elections either ways.
111,000 American deaths and climbing, recession breaking years of economic growth, double digit unemployment, rapidly rising debt and deficits, dramatically increased division in the country and failed foreign affairs policies. Oh, and impeached. Yea... those "trump victories" make all that winning tiring...
I dunno, 2018 was pretty good news for Democrats. They completely flipped Congress, won a few states in local races, and their only 'loss' was in the senate which they were never going to win. I'd be nervous if I were Republican. Even Mitch McConnel is losing in his polls. Well, Lindsey Graham did warn everyone that Trump would destroy the party, too bad no one (including himself) listened.
