If the strain is widely asymptomatic, then by definition isn't it less virulent (i.e., it needs symptoms to be virulent)?
I'm sharing this for the health of the community and believe it belongs here, not the D&D. If you think it belongs in the D&D please just report it. And if you have something to say about this that could be construed as "political," please discuss it in the D&D. Tear Gassing Protesters During An Infectious Outbreak Called 'A Recipe For Disaster' NPR June 5, 2020 6:00 AM ET In nationwide demonstrations against the police killing of George Floyd and other black Americans, protesters are frequently pepper sprayed or enveloped in clouds of tear gas. These crowd-control weapons are rarely lethal, but in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic, there are growing calls for police to stop using these chemical irritants, because they can damage the body in ways that can spread the coronavirus and increase the severity of COVID-19. Even before the coronavirus pandemic, some experts said additional research was needed on the risks of tear gas — an umbrella term for several chemical "riot control agents" used by law enforcement. It's known that the chemicals can have both immediate and long-term health effects. Their widespread use in recent weeks, while an infectious disease continues to spread across the U.S., has stunned experts and physicians. The coronavirus that causes the disease COVID-19 is highly contagious, spreads easily through the air via droplets, and can lead to severe or fatal respiratory illness. Deploying these corrosive, inhalable chemicals could harm people in several ways: expose more people to the virus, compromise the body's ability to fight off the infection and even cause mild infections to become more severe illnesses. Sven Eric Jordt, a researcher at Duke University School of Medicine who studies the effects of tear gas. Jordt refers to these chemicals as "pain gases" because they activate certain pain-sensing nerves on the skin and in the mucous membranes of the eyes, mouth and nose. "You have this excruciating pain, sneezing, coughing, the production of a lot of mucus that obstructs breathing," Jordt says. People describe a burning and stinging sensation, even a sense of asphyxiation and drowning. Sometimes it causes vomiting or allergic reactions. In law enforcement, officers generally use two types of chemicals for crowd control: CS gas and pepper spray. The active ingredient in pepper spray, called capsaicin, is derived from chilis. It's often sprayed from cans at close quarters or lobbed into crowds in the form of "pepper balls." CS gas (o‐chlorobenzylidene malononitrile) is a chlorinated, organic chemical that can induce "very strong inflammation" and "chemical injury" by burning the skin and airways when inhaled, Jordt says. "Using it in the current situation with COVID-19 around is completely irresponsible," he adds. "There are sufficient data proving that tear gas can increase the susceptibility to pathogens, to viruses." Continued...
I'm hearing from many well positioned individuals that the tear gas currently in use has been laced with #TrumpAIDS.
Oh, I've got several articles to share on that too. But I was afraid that might be controversial... so to the D&D I shall post them. Stay tuned!
The operative phrase was widely asymptomatic in "certain demographics, " meaning it seems this virus is highly virulent in the elderly and pre-existing health condition populations, but fairly harmless so as to produce mild to no symptoms in the under 25 crowd. Quite a divergence depending who it infects. I think that's why this disease is so hard to contain.
I have been monitoring this and things have started creeping into the yellow and even red threshold in key indicators. I cant manufacture a way to tell myself this isn't the start of another serious trend. I don't really understand how we wont hit our previous peak again. And soon. https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/proposed-early-warning-monitoring-and-mitigation-metrics/ https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-upd...d-19-positive-cases-for-greater-houston-area/ https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/daily-new-covid-19-cases/
It's believable af and thats actually one of my conspiracy theories. From intentionally spreading syphilis to latin america to Epstein's death. US has no integrity.
Texas has roughly been stable around 6% positive rate for testing for over a month. The 7 day rolling avg on 5/4 was about 1005 positive tests over 16697 tests per day for about 6% positive rate and we were averaging about 31.5 deaths per day then. As of 6/4 the 7 day rolling average had about 1449 positive tests over 23619 tests per day for about 6.1% positive rate and we are averaging about 23.7 deaths per day. Certainly something to keep an eye on with the positive tests, but I don't see much reason to panic yet.
Why would it not begin to gradually increase at an exponential rate? It has in the past in other places. Why not here, why not now? "The weather"?
The trend is the troubling part. The positivity rate started from 6% in the beginning of May, dropped to 4.5% in mid May, now back up to 6% in June. The trend in Houston is even more worrisome. The positivity rate started at 6% at the beginning of May. Dipped to 2.6% by May 14th. Now it's slowly trended back up to 5.3%. I think the lag time between indicators is what's causing people to relax more than they should. There is a significant lag time between infection, new cases, hospitalization, and death count. People have learned to ignore case numbers because testing is increasing and the numbers are small relative to what we were seeing in April. Hospitalization data is hard to come by for the whole country. So people just pay attention to the death rate, which lags behind new infections by at least 4 weeks. By the time the death rates are alarming again, the pandemic will be much worse than it could've been if we had properly slowly phased in reopening.
Lower population density, lack of significant public transport use, no sports events, no major gatherings, indoor capacity limits, awareness about symptoms, cleanliness and distancing. The weather and sun is primarily beneficial because of vitamin D production if you are out in the sun and UV light minimizing transmission outside. Knowledge goes a long way in reducing the exponential spread risk.
Perhaps, but so far we have not seen that point of view be justified yet. My prediction is that the northeast has probably hit herd immunity and will likely go the Spain or Italy route. My opinion is based on data models that relate to how a small number of people are responsible for a large percentage of the infections which ultimately significantly reduces the threshold for herd immunity. For the rest of country I think it will probably be a slow controllable burn for infections.
Worldwide, cases are still on the rise with yesterday setting another record for new cases. But interestingly, the death rates have been on a consistent decline. It may be suggesting that this thing will keep spreading, but it will get less and less dangerous. If there's a weather-driven 2nd wave in the fall, hopefully maybe we'll be left with the weaker strains of it?
Peak of deaths per day? Sure I'll donate. I think there is a fair shot you win. I just don't think we will see a sustained or out of control exponential spread. For the numbers I'm using from covidtracking.com the highest 7 day rolling average was 38.3 deaths per day. That pretty much matches up with https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/texas/ I've already got a bet with some very pessimistic friends on the overall death toll numbers thru Sept 1. I'm looking pretty good there. Yes I know all this is morbid to some but we all know we are looking at it.
Love! you! too! <3 I'm an optimist based on the information present and I don't see this as a risk of any kind of significance. There are very small numbers of people exposed to this in significant amounts. Further, the large majority of people were wearing some type of face covering. This issue feels very shoehorned trying to attach this to covid. As I mentioned I was at the protests in Austin and I think if we grading risks then the densely packed people is certainly a higher risk than this tear gas risk. I think the tightly packed people was not as high of a risk as some are worried about. That is simply my opinion. I could very easily be wrong.
The gestation time from people being infected to being hospitalized is 14 days. That info has been out since the first month of lockdown. And the death rates have never been alarming outside of NYC. In the meantime: Murder is up 30% Suicides are up 35% Unemployment is still up 10% ER visits are down 50%. Doctors are emploring patients to go that need to, due to increased deaths in Heart Attack and Stroke numbers also going up. It is high time to understand that this is not a pandemic. It is a bad virus, but one that a lot of us are asymptomatic or immune to.
https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/landia/PIIS2213-8587(20)30183-2.pdf There seems to be a link between Vitamin D deficiency and vulnerability to COVID19. Make sure you get enough D, guys!
