TSE is breaking away, heading towards 31% re-tracementt @ ~ 26.7 should it break thru the 31 % re-tracement today, then the next target is 50% re-tracement @~ 30
We are at a 52 week high on nasdaq. Unemployment numbers don't seem to make a lot of sense. I know Powell is printing money like there is no tomorrow, but this market doesn't make sense to me.
I'm guessing that a lot of the employment pop is coming from what was intended - the PPP loans. To get forgiveness, you had to spend 75% of the $ on payroll. I don't know what % decided to hold onto the PPP loans to get them past this (i.e, kept payroll at what their business needs were) vs hire folks to make sure the loan is forgiven. The rules have significantly softened this week, so I'm guessing most folks will go to levels that reflect their business needs. Of course, the reopening of the economy is also leading to the restaurant/retail jobs picking back up - but I would have guessed that was pretty apparent already and baked into the market. I think the best short opportunity will be to look for the companies that are going to come out of this saddled in debt. I don't know how much the airlines received in grant vs debt, but that seems like the first place to buy puts I would guess?
I am not trying to be dumb. Powell has infinite amount of ammo, but it could also crash too. I am just sitting out right now.
Don't worry about it! Just buy dead expiring options priced between 0.01-0.10 and sell them at .70 to 1.05 over night. Rinse and repeat!!! If it doesn't work just wait for Powell to print more money. Haha, in all honesty it's a mess. My actual options I felt were good ones were trash and then GE and Ford volume I noticed literally made me feel like I had my own printer. Lately I like to time things where I'm finding options that are low and gambling a very small amount if my actual DD didn't pan out, I won't go crazy and these aren't fully silly plays since I'm tracking volumes but I mean when I was searching yesterday for stuff like this on the volume alone I knew GE/F would be good for the afternoon but didn't think it'd keep going. I'm just glad I decided to keep some overnight. Seriously though, I saw some calls on airlines I missed on in the 20000%+ range for the afternoon, I barely missed those too... Anyway basically after missing quick plays on airlines/casinos I moved on to GE/F. I'm going to keep watching airline/casino sectors for the run up to pre-virus levels or see if a 2nd wave will make shorts worth it. I just wish this week I didn't go with a few AMD/AT&T options, but everything didn't matter after GE/F.
Yeah, I definitely understand, Powell certainly makes it more interesting. That's why I've mainly been playing options more vs stocks lately.
@adoo seeing tremendous early returns from BX long calls bought at the bottom yesterday. Planning to hold till mid July and need to buy you a beer. What's your position in TSE?
this was by a stock guru wannabe on april 14, 2020 even an amateur like me was able to poke holes in his convenient assertion as of today, the fear factor has dropped 10+ pts since Mancini's convenient assertion
Do you ever play VIX ETFs? I also agree with you, I mean the time to jump on this was when it was hitting for calls, and then short it, since this plays different, I mean when everything level/accounted for/smooth it's sideways or goes down etc.
So you're saying I shouldn't have sold Boeing on the way down at around $200 in March? Crazy. I didn't think I'd see Boeing at $200 again until next year a couple of months ago. lol. Also was too scared to jump into cruise stocks, and they've been rocketing the past few weeks. Pretty much everthing is winning and, if anything, tech is the boring. American Airlines is up around 100% this week. LOL.
no, it's too volatile for me. but i use it alot as a guide, for me to exit or enter position, as well as to short SPY
Man, I was so close to getting options for some silly low price on AAL... I still can't believe how well junk GE/F options played.
I dropped several K on JETS ETF back in May when it bottomed out at $12. .......wish i had put more in
MSFT has run into heavy resistance, held back by the recent "dash for trash" on Wall Street. this will be the 4th try at breaking thru the purple trend line. does today's pop in MSFT foreshadows re-rotation back to quality growth ? i want to see MSFT complete the handle to this Cup-w-Handle formation
i'll take a stab at it. most of the index funds have large holdings of quality growth stocks, who have enjoyed a great run since mid March. on the flip side,the cyclicals, (such airline, cruise line, casino, hotel, and BA) and financials,for the most part, have been left behind. over the last 2 wks, we're witnessing a market broadening, where institutions are paring some of the profits in quality growth stocks in order to buy those that have been left behind at bargain basement price personally, i think they're setting a trap for retail investors to jump into the fray to buy into the cyclicals, in particular AAL, cruise lines, BA ,etc. then the institutions will sell or short the cyclicals. yet another eg of "the greater fool theory" in action. this dynamic is accentuated by the better-than-expect job report for May
