I believe the main reason Trumps campaign did not want Biden is because they see major problems in their polling in the suburbs. Problems they didn’t think they would have with Bernie. Texas is basically becoming one giant suburb that even the most egregious gerrymandering cannot protect against. We all know that Trump has the older white guy vote in the suburbs (we all know them) but I can tell you first hand a lot of their wives are the ones that really really want to vote for Biden but there’s conflict there. What can Biden do to get their vote and put issues on the table in Texas and Arizona and Georgia that their husbands can’t persuade them the other way around? Not sure but it could be that this is the new swing voter in America and not some white steel mill worker in Ohio or Wisconsin.
Very surprised to see those numbers! There's no way Biden wins Texas IMO (Hillary lost by 9 points in 2016). But if he gets within 4 points, that's a sea change.
Other than this one specific to Texas and the Biden +11 thread yesterday, what other poll threads has he started?
I have definitely been swayed toward Biden. At the end of the day, it boils down to who I would want as my leader. Biden wins that by a mile.
I don’t really buy that at all. Biden could go the traditional route and campaign through the rust belt on workers issues and have a sweep of Penn, Wisc, Mich, Ohio, and pick up Florida which is a huge win and completely destroy Trump with an electoral college win. A traditional win starts at Wisconsin and moves southeast. But I think Biden has reasons in the data to suggest he might want to rethink the road to 270 and consider the possibility that Georgia or Arizona or even Florida could be more important on election night than Wisconsin. Because of Covid there’s going to be some weird out of the box campaigning needing to happen. Biden is usually excellent at retail politics. We’ll see how he adjusts but one way might be just more ad buys in states like ours. So I wouldn’t describe it as a toss up. I would say Biden should win with a fair race but the toss up feature is the word fair. What kind of nonsense will Trump and the GOP pull to mess with the electoral process I don’t know but Biden must be proactive in anticipation for what’s coming.
To clarify I expect Biden to win +6% and not win Texas. Trump is just that polarizing that even Texas is in play.
Yes and people don’t realize how bad Texas is rigged too with gerrymandering, ID laws, and the shutting down and constant moving around of polling places. You probably need a 10 point polling lead to win if you are a Dem because you cannot have it close enough for the state legislature to recount and make a call on their own. Texas officials are about as crooked and partisan as they come.
People need to stop believing this. The same white people marching for George Floyd are the same white people who never supported Trump. He has always been polarizing Long before politics, The Apprentice, etc. He is Donald Trump People aren't going to blame Coronavirus on him.
Every election is about Democrat turnout. In that sense maybe Trump's polarization will drive turnout but it won't make Reagan Democrats switch back. They still hate Hispanic immigration
It's going to be interesting how the Biden team play it. I think they're going to basically go all in on the Midwest (PA, MI, WI, MN). You win those 4 and it is game-set-match. Chasing nice to haves like Arizona and North Carolina, or white whales like Texas and Florida are tempting, but ultimately I think too risky. It would seem that winning back your "bread and butter" states would be an easier task than reaching for new ones. All of this could change depending on who the VP pick is though.
true; that said, the fact that Trump is running neck-and-neck w Biden in Tx, w 5+mo to go, foreshadows trouble tor Tx RINOs who are beholdern to the Jabba the Hutt of priviledge
I wonder what down ballot implications there are to a close presidential election in Texas. Even if Biden loses, if he gets this close because of turnout, it could mean a lot more democrats in state positions and the House.
Like I said in the main election thread -- 5 months is an eternity. This could legitimately be the highest Biden polls from now until election day. It all depends on the events to come, most of which we don't have control over, and some of which Trump does have control over.
This poll is warning sign to Trump but I wouldn't say it's definitive. I still think Trump has a very good chance of winning. I think there is actually a hidden Trump vote that doesn't show up well in polling. Trump still is very much in trouble. You hear campaign strategists talk a lot about expanding the battlefield and in a Presidential campaign that means moving into states that weren't considered swing states. In Trump's case I don't think Biden has expanded the battlefield so much that Trump has been shrinking. It's still a long shot Biden wins Texas but if the Trump campaign actually has to defend Texas that takes resources from other states and also shows how weak his appeal is.
