Yea, we can't because the well has been poisoned. We have a culture where a significant part of our population do not listen to experts, do not believe experts, do not believe in institution, deeply mistrustful of leaders... that itself is pretty bad but when you add on top of that with Fox News since Jan or Feb pushing a message that this is nothing and with the POTUS saying this is just a flu that would just go away, I don't see how leaving it just to the people to manage themselves would be successful. It can be, with the right culture which do exists in some places in the world. And built on top of that, a government that put in place system to reduce and contain spreading and you got pretty good result. This isn’t a binary choice - do nothing and let it ride vs complete lockdown forever, Wuhan style. People have concern about both health and wallet, but on a spectrum. There is some idealist on each extreme but they are pretty rare. I’m concern that we are pushing too fast and too much toward the let it ride... and I’m absolutely not happy that the gov haven’t done more prior to opening back up. With that said, my mind would change with effective treatment or good news IFR. Politic wise - Trump is positioning himself to benefit from an economic bounce with re-opening and deflect blames to the state if it turn south. He has seen this crisis through a political lens and we are all losers for it.
This makes a lot of sense to me. This is why I find the argument that the death toll is actually much less so troubling. That there might be cases that were mislabeled as COVID-19 is certainly possibly but it seems far more likely given that we know the virus has been here longer and is more widespread. It is also why we really don't have a good handle on what the true mortality rate is. I see many throwing around the figure of 1%, I saw someone say it was 0.3% yesterday. We're not really sure which is why we need to be very very careful with how we open things up.
First what are you basing your argument that COVID-19 isn't passed from outdoor activities? Whether you're outside or inside you still exhale and shed various fluids and biological matter that can transmit microbes. Regarding people managing their own risk ideally that is fine but not when your risk affect others. I've seen the argument brought up that we have a lot of fatalities each year from car crashes but we don't ban driving. Driving is very much where legally we don't just let people manage their own risk. We require driver's licenses, insurance, vehicle registration, seat belts, drunk driving laws, speed limits and all sorts of regulation to manage risk. If we just left it to people to manage their own risk we could repeal speed limits or drunk driving laws and leave it as people can manage their own speed and their own alcohol tolerances. This goes back to again what is the nature of freedom. It's not do whatever you want and you take the risks. Not when individual actions such as drinking and driving can affect others. Freedom of movement is a right and we accept that driving allows us to move much more effectively than other methods. We don't just let people drive however they want and leave it their own risk assessment because that would end up affecting many others including those not even driving freedom of movement.
negative rate here we come! The dead is coming back to life at this rate. The 1.5% is probably based on ... some unofficial record of some preliminary testing with some large error. At least, officially, the CFR is still 6% or so. ~60k death with ~1M cases = ~6%. It's likely lower (yes, there are likely more death and there are likely much more cases), but that's the thing, we still don't know how much. Gamble away.
How does closing an avenue to cash out give small businesses more avenues? I'm fine with them giving speeches from a podium without a mask, or meeting foreign leaders without a mask, or relying on weekly testing for staff for internal meetings. But, it's just effing rude to go into an establishment -- in this case a hospital! -- and defy their mask policy. When the Pence family visits Japanese friends for dinner, do they refuse to take off their shoes? Agree with that. I'd add to that, this is the sort of event where only collective action can be effective. Even when people take their risk seriously, the pressure is on to conform to the highest risk tolerance. One worker can't risk going to work? No problem, he's fired and someone who can risk it will go to work. One business thinks operating is too risky? A competitor will take all his customers. Meanwhile, the landlord, the bank, the utility all say 'you're permitted to operate, so pay your bills.' Keep your kid home from school? Fine, but the other kids came so they graduate and little Timmy doesn't. Saying 'everyone manage their own risk' is tantamount to saying no one should manage risk. It's the classic race to the bottom free marketeers are always dropping us into.
I would say the opposite, less deaths attributed to COVID than there actually are ...Lotta PEs in folks testing negative but with all the markers etc. tests not picking it up
81 year olds being more at risk of dying is not a justification for locking everyone in their homes in perpetuity that isn't how societies manage risk Before COVID, there were people who were heavily immuno-compromised. We didn't lock everyone else in their homes to protect them. But feel free to make the simple sanctimonious "people will die!" argument
