Making decent so far on small trash caps VISL/UAVS. If not in it wait for a dip it's most likely just pnd/follow the news garbage today/next week maybe again, so be careful but seems decent - I don't know how much longer I'll be in, so definitely not financial advice. Made a few calls on ET ~7.50 on plan for few weeks 5/1 and more further out, probably more random but noticed some interesting volume and got in for cheaper than the volume entry point. I'll probably move way ahead. But looking good so far for my entry. Definitely low end play but seemed interesting when I was looking over volume for Placed. Again I think it'll be gone way ahead of exercising but am testing some. Not in a lot else atm, made a little on PFE Calls but didn't hold longer due to how crazy everything is. The spike this morning was nice for exiting. But will be watching - I don't like PFE much but I keep feeling with Covid-19 it'll get some action still, the better play was BNTX this week and was hoping PFE would get more, I don't expect this to be exciting money with earnings coming but there should be a small amount still - at least looking at earlier this morning, - I didn't watch much on market today so wasn't watching very close. I had MSFT calls but got out early this morning. The whole GILD/unemployment release really changed any stuff I was looking at. I basically closed spots this morning on MSFT, will re-evaluate later but glad I was out before it really fell hit. On GILD I was considering selling puts because I'm sure it'll rebound and could be nice entry if they option, but didn't follow through due to not looking at/being in front of system. And was honestly hoping a little more of a dip. Honestly with news now reversing some it'll be interesting tomorrow.
ET and others all worked, I exited for a quick double on my options, looking to possibly re-enter on ET for more, but looking at a few other things - exited the small cap trash as I stated I would * took profits, there might be more plays on those but seriously do DD and set conservative PT - I don't want anyone to get stuck with garbage, I also will make sure to label any small caps as trash if I post any plays I see, ie take profit - and "while greed is good" don't go too crazy, small caps are always a thing I literally enter/exit - rarely overnight them
The stock market and unemployment % are on two different trajectory’s. Are there any Carl Icahn’s or Warren Buffett’s here that can tell me what’s going on?
The stock market is trying to predict what things will look like in the future. Right now, it is predicting that 6-12 months down the road, it won't be nearly as bad as it is right now, especially with all the back stops the federal government has put into the economy by pumping in trillions of dollars. It could be wrong, but its what is priced in right now.
The general stock market is always "up" long-term. It's not necessarily right or wrong, but as long as the country can recover, the market will probably be up. Short-term, we could have the market tank again, but many are starting to think it wouldn't be much worse than the bottoms we already visited. The market isn't necessarily an immediate indicator of the economy -- it's always forward-looking. You usually buy stocks "in the hopes of something happening". Of course there are those out there FOMO'ing, too, but generally the big money is trying to get ahead of the run. There was a stat I read once that since the 1950's, the market bottomed 3 months to a year ahead of the end of a recession. Of course that doesn't mean the market still can't tank further or the economy has bottomed. There are some big tech earnings next week and a lot of the stock market is heavily-weighted towards tech stocks, so we'll probably see some movement next week.
this is from https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/discounting-mechanism.asp the stock market is a Discounting mechanism; it essentially discounts all available information ncluding present and potential future events. Therefore, people and companies who take part in the stock market adjust positions and prices by considering events that may take place in the future. This explains the wild swings in stock indexes following unexpected events such as a natural disaster or a terrorist attack, as well as earnings beat sand earnings misses.
This is exactly why the markets HATE unknown. There is nothing to price in. That’s why you’ll often see increases in values, even in bad news sometimes. For example, I remember when BP got the gigantic fine from the US government the stock went UP. Not because it was lower than expected (it wasn’t). It was because an unknown became known. Also, possibly explaining a good chunk of the god awful unemployment numbers: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/she...ction-loan-her-employees-hate-her-for-it.html
lol @ fake news telling you that US storage is at capacity. The EIA is tracking storage capacity for the past months and they just announced that our storage is a little under 60% EXCLUDING SPR. Including the storage capacity, we have SPR we have more than 50%. With NO increase in demand and current supply deficit, we have 21 weeks of storage available. Some of you guys have no business investing in stocks worrying about a dip. This is time to be dollar averaging yourself and loading up. All the doom stories make me laugh. There were no physical barrels of oil actually sold at negative prices. Those were simply booked values because hedge funds capitulated. https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/wcrudeoilstorage.xlsx I'll see you guys in a few months when I double my money while everyone else things its collapsing. USO front-loads their future contracts so you'll obviously have to deal with massive contango and negative yield which will guarantee you a lost month over month. USL invests in 12 months so you have very little contango and have very little volatility. You can buy July call options with a 12 dollar strike option and almost guarantee to double your money if WTI goes up to 24 dollars sometime in May. The world isn't collapsing. India industrial plants are going back into operation this week and they heavily rely on heavy oil for EVERYTHING. All you guys ******** on oil I'll come back in a few months after I run out like a bandit at these prices. Easy money.
You're arguing and flexing about different things. USO attempted to track the near-month NYMEX/CME WTI contracts. Those only care about Cushing, Ok. capacity which was either almost full or leased out of any remaining space. That's what was running out. It cratered when people had no place to store the oil if they took delivery because they were selling it for whatever they could get because they had no place to physically store the delivery. People in the industry were saying there was only a 1-2 week supply of capacity left before it was completely full. Nobody wanted to be left holding barrels of oil as the contract rolled over if there was no place to store it. That caused the crash. As for the SPR, correct me if I'm wrong, but Congress has yet to approve the purchase of oil to be placed in the SPR. What they have done in the meantime, from what I remember reading is they have leased space to companies to store oil. Also, no one said oil would never come back -- you actually think people believe the price of oil was going to stay at $0 or negative forever? The leveraged ETF's that people were still piling into during the contango was what people were saying to stay out of. Even after the rollover and the investing strategy for USO was changed, people were still piling into it thinking "it's so cheap and then oil will go up and I'll be rich!" Of course, if you look at the ETF, it's been flat while oil has popped because of the change in how it tracks contracts. Once oil/gas usage continues to go up after all the lock-ins and shut downs are hopefully done, the oil glut can be relieved. Either that or production will have to be cut or some combination of both. This is causing and will cause oil to go up in price. BTW, if you really wanted to double your money in straight stocks with no leverage, a good way might have been to put money into tanker stocks like Nordic American or Teekay or something. Companies like Exxon pay them tons of money per day to store oil while prices are low just so they can take advantage of higher prices later. I know Nordic American has more-than-doubled since the March lows.
So says the person that thought Monday's meltdown was because of USO trying to move May futures contracts. You don't even understand the basic operations of the things you invest in. 12 days ago, you thought USO was a great buy.
I think this is a good one, I wish I got in at $59, haha, but there's still a lot more to gain. I don't smoke, but will buy their stock. MO might be worth a look, and maybe even BTI (but I like PM/MO more). I was trying to see if there were any other nicotine plays to try and follow the news regarding patches as well - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-france-nicotine-idUSKCN2262K8 I think this could work... Might have missed out gains from companies making the patch, and this article is a bit more realistic, the other ones though/if more news is up could cause a follow the news type Covid surge. -Maybe like a RAD etc., that one should go up regardless but could cause a nice gain. Note I'm not in it but was just looking for stuff like this.
