I thought this social distancing this was way over the top tbh....but our hospital (one of the largest corona hubs in the country) just released a census and the curve really is flattening. Saw some really tough things this past week but it looks to be getting better
the Great Deleverage unfolds over the next couple months. my face physically cringes when i ponder it. destruction of valuations on a heartbreaking scale. going to be a lot of people hurt starting w/ small business, all the way down to commercial properties, the list goes on. as you mentioned, a crisis in confidence/demand will persist -- china is currently experiencing this and they didn't even have a nationwide lockdown. oil/energy bust going to make it even worse for texas. the models i've seen for best case scenario if everything works out optimally, still a 2-year recession domestically
We need it, we should not have our retirements in 401ks...that is not a safe methodology, we need to go back to pensions or savings.....401ks artificially inflate the market and reward companies with valuations way too high. DD
so this is one of the most puzzling posts i've seen in a while, both generally speaking as well as for the specific situation going forward. according to your proposal, retirements should be in either 1) pensions mandated by law to invest in govt treasuries (earning 1%?) or 2) savings (earning .3%?) pensions are set to implode everywhere (just like illinois) because state & municipal govts are 1) going bankrupt and 2) pensions cannot survive on 1% bond payouts when they need at least 7% just to operate equity markets are likely to bottom out w/ new lows in the next couple months. bottom out not b/c the economy is then going to magically come back later this year, but only because big money worldwide still needs someplace to park and US blue chips will serve as the last resort flight to quality. i would just keep 401k's allocated into equities, or even better if possible roll them over to IRA's and buy spiders when you see new lows
Has anyone tried to quantify this? How many? What's the impact to employment? Sweden, although diff culture, is a clue on social behavior and busn impact.
Update: Many fires reignited shortly afterwards and are still raging, although fortunately not near the plant itself, but in more distant forests. Tricky situation still with winds picking up and firefighters not being able to control the situation.
Small businesses account for 44% of US economic activity. https://cdn.advocacy.sba.gov/wp-con...02039/rs444-Small-Business-GDP-1998-20141.pdf Disturbing to see how many swing and misses there are from the blowhards here. Of course you wouldn't know what to do. The answer is UBI for those making under a certain salary threshold (35k) and a 1% higher tax for the ultra wealthy (5,000,000 or more a year). It's ok if non essential businesses go out of business, new ones will start up. That's capitalism.
Preliminary data from france shows that nicotine has a protective effect against Covid19. They will start giving nicotine patches to patients! * This is the second one. I have posted the first about 3 weeks ago in this thread.
Interesting- new autopsy data showing first NoCal Corona death... on Feb 6, making that America’s first. Can’t believe the outbreak hasn’t been worse here. https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Santa-Clara-county-coronavirus-February-deaths-15217371.php
New information on the first Covid death at Santa Clara on Feb 6th instead of Feb 28 definitely suggests the theory that the virus has been spreading in communities a few weeks before originally thought. https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Santa-Clara-county-coronavirus-February-deaths-15217371.php So assuming that the virus has been spreading undetected, that means that a smaller percentage of people are getting sick enough to go the hospital and even smaller percentage of people dies. That's good news. However, this also means that there are way more mild cases 'in the wild' at this very moment. It would explain why the test positive rate did not decrease very much even after a month plus of social distancing. People with mild cases are still going to the grocery stores, religious services, or essential businesses and spreading the virus. I fear that if we start opening up society more, the virus will spread very quickly again. With all the mild cases out there, instead of having 1 in 10,000 people being contagious, it may actually be 10 or 50 people. Even if the death rate is low, I don't know if hospitals and the economy could handle NY level of infection everywhere in the country. The good news is that herd immunity could probably achieved without apocalyptic level of deaths if the infection rate is controlled and governors are willing to have multiple cycles of opening and closing the economy.
Those Chinatown Houston rumors early Feb were probably true. There was no testing for it back then and they didn't want people to panic because the rodeo was coming up.
Nazi meth has also been found to help patients fight the virus -- widespread testing expected soon. *Regular meth appears to offer no tangible benefit.
Had to be (I mean might not have even been just Chinatown or something by that point), considering newspapers were showing covid stateside - day after Kobe passed away.
I have a friend in Houston who very likely had it in February before this all exploded. He had all the symptoms and they tested him for the flu and strep twice and it came back negative both times. The doctors did not know what it was and it eventually went away after about 2 full weeks of symptoms. Luckily it doesnt look like he transmitted to anybody at his workplace or his family (shut downs didn't happen until about a month later).
