Thanks for the answers from Dr of Dunk, Major and davidio840! It doesn't sound like I should be investing in the ETFs then. DoD, you mentioned that people are shorting the June futures. Another stupid question, is that something I can do with an online brokerage account?
If/when/how the economy restarts and how long OPEC+ suppresses production has a large bearing on what oil will do the next few months. WTI is crashing because of the glut combined with low demand and more oil is still arriving to the US. From what I understand Brent price isn't tanking simply because there's still places to store that oil. There are places in Canada as well as elsewhere for a loss simply because there is no place to store it. Oil could just as easily have a bit of a rally if the world economies start kickstarting again.
Depends on account, but options or margin will allow you to short it... Who are you trading with? And not a stupid question, but need to be really careful with how you place these.
USO is going absolutely insane on the amount of orders I'm watching in real time, I think today's volume for large orders dwarfs all of last week.. I need to look at this further but very interesting on the amount of inflow, haven't examined options yet but outright purchases alone look ridiculous. Wow.
The easiest way for the "common guy" to do it is through inverse oil ETF's but there are dangers with those, too. Be careful.
So you can definitely do these (but be really careful, some play very different as stated above), so on SCO for example I don't like how high it pumped - for me personally I'd wait unless you have a target planned and know this one really well. Again not financial advice etc. for all I know this goes up another $20+, it's not one I am currently playing etc.. If wanting to short a specific stock you can start with options - but you really want to be careful (like even more so than above) ie - only buying contracts for calls/puts and then selling those exact contracts (so you don't want to write a contract to sell outright that you don't own because that's where people get in trouble). I'd recommend reading up on options/learning more if not familiar - but then this would allow you to actually start buying calls/puts for contract plays. I typically buy these and then will sell them ahead of time unless I feel really confident, in this market though it's definitely a roller-coaster like experience - so you have to not play on emotions. After you feel comfortable on learning these, you should be able to enable options on your account through Merrill - again though please research, I even recommend trying paper trading on these to try things out ahead of placing actual orders. Also, the reason I am stating to not sell these outright (so writing the contract to sell w/o owning one) is because you're basically allowing someone the option to take 100 shares from you. Sure you get money upfront for the contract, but if you're wrong... or you wrote a naked call, ie sold a call on Apple for $320 - Apple rose to $350, you basically have to buy Apple stocks at $350 (so this value X 100 per contract) and then sell to the person at $320... I have seen people wreck their accounts - either clicking wrong/not understanding what they're optioning. Like I am talking negative balances... so that's why you only buy and then sell those exact contracts. - and while buying can be risky if the stock doesn't do what you want, at least you know the total possible loss upfront. ie- I bought a Call/Put option for $100 , that's the most I can lose but technically can gain unlimited etc..
Yeah, haha, this one I dunno why.... It was absolutely not something I'd attempt with USO, I was expecting things to have moved more for a quick play, but it's finally trending up from volume, I'm just curious to see where this will be at in the next few days/into May
another swing trade, STZ, who appears to be consolidating ~ 62% retracement placed this order sell May 155/150 put spread for 2.4 buy Jul 155 CALL w a very low bid
Hey - so who bought like 40 million shares in USO? Haha that was insane on the volume placed... Either they know something - ie cash out or they are really trying to buy the market. That was wild on volume alone today...
Today was a good day. Did really well on FLIR this morning. It never hit my stop so I still have half my position and it is up another point after hours. As I mentioned in this thread I bought TOT towards the end of the day for an oil play. It is up over 2% after hours.
day traders, NFLX has been on a strong uptrend since March, earnings call will be tomorrow, after market closing, straddle price suggests a 7% move. while i don't day trade, i have put this 1 May expiration options in play sold 445 / 440 put spread for 2.55
This will be the easiest money you've ever made in your life if you actually listen to me. The last time oil fell off a cliff silver followed 1 week later. I expect silver to fall to 2008 levels. $9-10 silver? Yes please! Short silver with the ETN DSLV. AND when you're finished with that trade buy into USLV with the proceeds and catch silver on it's way back up.
I'm super worried about the city of Houston as a whole though. That entire city is pretty much built on the back of oil profits. OK not the entire city, but a good portion. I guarantee we're going to fire up the printing presses to replace all that lost revenue. Hyperinflation here we come!
Expect all of the silver stocks to fall as well. AG, AGQ, FSM, EXK, SIL, SILJ....pretty much any silver or silver mining stock is going to fall. Short it. And even if you don't believe me on shorting it, bookmark this or whatever and buy back into these stocks after they fall. They *will* eventually recover. Guys we're headed towards hyperinflation. Today guarantees it.
