1. Looks true and will be great news if it holds up. 2. Promising not proven, but again great news if it holds up. 3. Young healthy people will catch it and have mild symptoms generally. More young and healthy will die from COVID than flu, but overall the mortality is really low in both conditions. 4. 40% of Americans are obese. Another 30% are overweight. Our population in general is unhealthy. 5. COVID is almost everywhere in the US but with low number of cases. It’s just New York City has high density and DeBlasio took too long to act. Now for one or two more good news. Massachusetts and Stanford performed antibody testing in their populations. The results are 2-4% have been infected dropping mortality to .1 to .5%. Some issues are the test may be overestimating exposure because it would imply that all of New York and all of Italy have already been infected which is most likely not true. The test has a range of sensitivities and specificities and the infection rate assumes highest performance. It would also mean herd immunity is not achievable. I think starting deescalation on a county by county level is completely appropriate and people need to be ready that if cases start increasing we go back to stay at home. We will get over this but it’s not a political issue ultimately. Fringe elements have so much distrust of society that they think this is a vaccination ploy, fake, or communism. Conservative voices amplify this to what gain? Stop with the LIBERATE talk. We are not occupied.
While true, it's also not necessary when deciding whether to incrementally re-open society. The main decision point there is whether hospitals are seeing more admissions and if they are being overwhelmed. If they aren't, then you want to start relaxing guidelines a bit. Public policy isn't just about policy - it's about compliance. If stricter policies are more likely to result in people not following them (because they aren't seeing the scenarios people fear), then it's not an effective policy. You might actually get better results with slightly looser restrictions.
Very, very true. The State of Texas has a surprisingly good website that allows you to see each county’s number of reported cases, the number of fatalities, and some graphs showing all that in terms of different age groups. They also show those different sized circles and stuff. I know that’s elsewhere, but this is our website! Those of you convinced that you are “immune” because of your age, or that your kids are, might be a little surprised. Check it out. However, they have no information about the testing. None. Nada. Texas ranks near the bottom regarding the testing actually done per capita. In other words, as much as I would like to be optimistic, we really don’t have a clue about the number of Texans infected with the Coronavirus. The virus has been shown to be at it’s most contagious in the 2-3 days before, and on the 1st day you show symptoms. You can be at your most contagious, in other words, for a few days before you start feeling sick, and even then, you may not ever realize you have it and are contagious. You could get over it, if you’re lucky, having given it to people you care about who aren’t as lucky as you. Hell of a thing, isn’t it. Wonder why they haven’t posted that information? For each county? I’m sure they’ll get around to it.
I think I read somewhere in the past that Houston uses a lot of airconditioning. I posted this in the other thread but I am afraid most people missed it. When restaurants/ offices open up for good over there, avoid sitting in front of the wind line of a fan or aircondition.Open a window along with the aircondition. Or better yet when possible sit outside. The aircondition is now proven to turn the virus droplets into aerosols and blow it with the airflow infecting all people who sit in the way.
Well the other option is to be the first to sit in the airflow or dont' sit right in the middle of it. Do you understand what I mean? Don't have someone in front of you in the airline, because there is now evidence that even presymptomatics can turn an aircondition wind into a virus spreader. But whoever wasn't sitting right in line of the wind of the aircondition didn't get infected.
Hospital admission is a lagging indicator. By the time you see a spike at the hospital, you could be dealing with a 2-3 weeks outbreak. It seems that's the plan, wait 2-3 weeks to see if there is a spike. If there is, what then?
Certainly true - but that's going to be a risk whenever you relax restrictions, whether it's tomorrow or a month from now. As it stands, they are talking about minor shifts next week and then waiting another week before the next decision point. There's nothing in elective surgeries or to-go-retail that should lead to an outbreak. It would be a small uptick at the most. If they open beaches or restaurants or movie theaters, that's a different potential story.
I'm fine with that minor shift. But I wouldn't be comfortable with a big shift being monitored primarily by 2-3 weeks lagging indicators. The risk can be reduced, drastically, with rapid diag, massive and quick contact tracing and isolation. We've seen it done with good success in other countries.
But Texas and basically all of america must stop/ severely limit intrastate travel and airplanes. And people coming from beyond the borders. What's the point of monitoring anything when hundreds of New Yorkers can come tomorrow in Dallas and create a super cluster? Or when thousands of people pass the border from Mexico? All your data and curves will be useless. All the "successfull" countries are doing this. China, South Korea, Taiwan...Singapore tried but they failed.
Yes, I was joking! We’ve been self-isolated in our house for about 6 weeks with our dog. At least we have a back yard we can hang out in, and our AC will just be blowing our own fumes around the house. ;-)
We won't be doing that, at least within the 50 states. It's already clear that there won't be any national plan. The fed gov has abdicated it's responsibility during a "war" (probably a first in our history). Every states will do their own things. It's like 50 small countries (some big) all interconnected with likely little travel restriction between them (once things start to open up). Some states may restrict - it's all up to each state. Singapore has a set back even with it's gold standard system (which is why every body need to be very nervous with a sub-standard system, such as what we have here in the States). I hope they will be successful soon at slowing down the spread. If they can't do that, we are all in for a long ride.
Then at the very least implement testing at the airports. Emirates has already started doing this. Even if you don't catch all and there are false negatives, at least it will be more under control. https://www.businessinsider.com/emirates-tests-passengers-coronavirus-covid19-flights-2020-4 Have every passenger before they board the plane tested, and pay for it with their ticket. I think that's what we are going to do in the EU too sooner or later These 10 minutes tests are becoming cheaper and cheaper. They are now 1/3 of the price they were in the end of February.
We are learning more and more every day, for those who are following the data and adjusting as new information presents itself. 1. This is a disease of the elderly. 2. The #1 cause of mass spread is PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION. 3. Sunlight kills the virus. So for all of you who were complaining about young people on Florida's beaches, while you take the 4 train up and down the East side - you are morons. Oh, and Cuomo made things worse by keeping MTA open during all of this. He's a total idiot, and I can't believe people are falling for his act (phony voice, phony concern, over dramatic actions...).
The headline made it seem like we were reopnening schools and malls so I worried. However, walking my dog yesterday one of the parks we pass by now had the caution tape taken down, which was still there Thursday. I guess it's reopened? Thankfully people around my neighborhood are taking it serious.
