Better than the Belarus President, Alexander Lukashenko: “There are no viruses here. Did you see any flying around? I don’t see them either.” "If a person stays positive, they will be healthy,"
So the percentage of tests positive decline significantly today. We had been around 21% or so for about 3 weeks and today it dropped to 16.5%. New York looks like it has finally topped out as well. Percent positive has dropped from 43% to 34.5% over the past 4 days. I expect daily death numbers to remain elevated for awhile though.
He even said : " Virus will do no harm, to People who are driving tractor in the fields, and drinking Vodka, exclusively for disinfection purposes".
yep, cases from past coming to resolution now. Elevated at record numbers ... 2,376 today. NYC had 100 more deaths today than yesterday. (15% increase)
I've seen some reports that Sundays/Mondays are artificially low and Tuesdays are artificially high due to various reporting delays over weekends. Whereever I read it thought Easter might exacerbate that even more. That could explain the surge in deaths reported today.
He's a clown. But I don't think that very poor countries should close down. I mean like India, not sure of Belarus. If you compare the mortality rate between hunger and Covid19 , hunger wins. We are lucky that we have the option of lockdown. There will be financial ruin, but there won't be here anyone who actually physically starves to death. There are stipulant money, benefits, vouchers and foodbanks and charity. Even in the far fetched scenario that the lockdown lasts 1 year there will still be 3 bowls of food available for everyone to eat. Even the homeless the long term unemployed and the gypsies. The state, the government and society will make sure of it. There is a road that leads to survival but what about 3rd world countries? Especially since they are mostly of younger age, with most in their 20s and 30s. I think there will be many more deaths in Africa and India and Central America from the lockdowns than if they let the epidemic run its course.
Yup that's correct. I was expecting deaths to go up a good bit today based on how the reporting can be. That's why I switched to a rolling average to watch the death numbers instead of looking at the daily numbers. The four day rolling average for deaths look like this over the past week Date----------------Deaths------% Change 04/14/20 ----------1795----------- 3.38% 04/13/20 ----------1736---------- -5.79% 04/12/20 ----------1843---------- -4.37% 04/11/20 ----------1927---------- -0.76% 04/10/20 ----------1942---------- 13.07% 04/09/20 ----------1718---------- 11.38% 04/08/20 ----------1542---------- 9.75%
Is this enough? FYI for Sweden and the UK that is not enough. Some of the deaths are from March and most are from 14 to 10 days ago. Their curves and peaks are totally useless but you can get the real data of hospital deaths, 10 days later.
Why would you need longer for a rolling average? I'm just trying to smooth out the day to day data because it is bumpy. If you are curious the rolling average was at 686 deaths 14 days ago and 1202 deaths 10 days ago. I believe it will be a bit before we get down to those levels again.
Peak cases reported in a day before trending down in number? I think peak amount reported based on data models - assuming we stay sheltered etc. Is looking between April 22 or near end of April (I think end of April is better estimate atm), they keep moving it as we get more results/better projections. I mean iirc it was May/June at some point. The lack/slowness of testing and producing results is causing the models to not stay too accurate though... So it'll probably move a few more times
If our percent of test positive number is accurate then we have peaked already. I feel like something is off with the number, but it has dropped significantly. I haven't been tracking Texas specifically, but I can throw it into the spreadsheet in a second.
I hope you're right, but it hasn't looked good from the data/reports I've seen. I mean maybe if we do a good job on the curve/good distancing but if we relax it's going to be a disaster. -sorry I realized you meant US cases, I did see that, Texas though is really lagging from what I've seen, so not looking forward to the peak
Texas being between 14th and 16th in deaths has amazed me. Figured we would we be top 10 due to sheer population
I still worry that we haven't hit the actual wave yet/reporting behind etc. , but... I'll take any good news we can get
I just looked at Texas specifically and the numbers just are **** in terms of how they are processed day to day. I had to do a 5 day rolling average to get some kind of smoothness to them. Currently we are averaging about 8000 tests per day which is about the same as a week ago and two weeks ago we were at 5000 tests per day Today we are averaging about 24 deaths per day which is up from about 17 a week ago and 7 two weeks ago The percent positive rate is 10.9% now, 9.9% a week ago, and 9.4% two weeks ago Overall we have conducted 146467 tests with 14624 positive for positive rate right at 10% We don't have much of a problem here, but it would be nice if our testing didn't suck.
This is great, very curious to see the results. Anyone want to venture a guess? 10% antibody positive, 2% active infection?
Also, just by looking at some of the number I don't know if it makes sense to have all states "shutdown" at once. Some of the more isolated, sparsely populated states seem fine to start opening up to a degree (whatever that means). We need to test what works best. We don't need a one size fits all approach since the US is so widely varied. What NYC needs to get going isn't going to be the same as Wyoming, Alaska, Montana, North Dakota, Hawaii, or even remote areas of Texas.
Definitely agree with you, and good job on working with the numbers we do have... I'm just hoping we don't open up too soon, like hopefully we get lucky but I really don't like the unknowns of reinfection rate - I mean hopefully more news is released and it was just a false negative/positive type thing. I also hope we don't take any good news trends for granted.
