One thing for sure, when this pandemic dies down and products like Lysol, tissue paper, and rubbing alcohol become more available, I'm keeping PLENTY of it. I haven't seen Lysol or RA in a store in weeks. I saw TP for the first time in weeks today and baby wipes on Monday first time in weeks. When masks become available, I'm getting that **** too
If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387
While true, that doesn't offer hope for the here and now. If 50 million people "catch it" (meaning show symptoms, and get tested), the mortality is still going to look bad, considering that will still leave 500k dead. All that means is that maybe 100 million people actually have it. And it's probably akin to the flu, where you can get it every year. The only hope is a vaccine to slow down the yearly mutations.
sadly, i don't believe a vaccine is coming any time soon. and the chief author of this publication i posted (fauci himself) keeps repeating the same thing
These "clinical consequences" ignores hospitalization rates and the pressure it puts on the rest of the system. A severe seasonal flu doesn't overwhelm hospitals in a matter of weeks to the point where entire regions of countries have to say "well, you're over 70, so we can't try to help you".
Still estimates 12-18 months away, but ... https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/01/whi...target-and-will-be-ultimate-game-changer.html White House advisor Fauci says coronavirus vaccine trial is on target and will be ‘ultimate game changer’
The number of infections in America is really getting scary. Like out of control. We need to be strong for family and others, but this is depressing.
I agree. I'm just pointing out that I think it's a pointless political move for someone like that to (still) be trying to negate this thing down to a flu. Whatever the death rate is, it's most likely very, very much more contagious than a flu. Until we get a vaccine. Anyone wanting to compare the two, is toeing a dangerous line.
It's not scary if you believed the hype from the beginning. Too many people, including the White House, ignored this. I'm sure it's eye opening to them. To those that have been paying attention, it's the supervirus I was first warned about 20 years ago. It's here and it's living up to the hype, unfortunately.
Sorry for taking up so much space. Accidental double post. Tomorrow will most likely be the day where we hit a million worldwide cases, and 50,000+ deaths. A very somber day.
Compared to what? The 5 biggest countries in Europe (Germany, France, UK, Italy, and Spain) have combined about the same population as the US at around 320 million people. They have 380,301 cases compared to our 215,417 cases.
as that patient exited hospital, he was hit by a car ,a few scratches but magically survived. I think Chinese experiments for the most part are highly unreliable, it's good though for Roche pharmaceutical
Compared to everyday normal life... Doesnt matter how much they get compared to ours, those are big numbers. The US is such a bigger country in sqaure footage and we arent stacked on each other like most European countries, the rapid rate of growth we have even with 80% with a stay at home advisory is scary, no matter how you look at it.
Except we don’t have 215,000 cases. We have no idea how many cases we have. We have only tested a minute percentage of people with symptoms consistent with COVID19. That doesn’t include asymptomatic carriers that have no symptoms so they haven’t been tested. Then there are the hundreds of thousands of tests that haven’t been processed yet.
Does Europe (the countries you listed) have more access to tests and as a consequence more have been tested? Do those nations have more severe lock downs and fines associates with enforcing the lockdown? Is the USA behind those Western European nations in term of when transmissions began? I only know what I have read. It appears we are behind in terms of testing. The other questions? I suppose that is up for debate but I will say this... The President that didn’t believe the virus was that serious is now pushing 100,000-200,000 dead in the USA. With a fatality rate of somewhere between one half of one percent and two percent, do the math; that is a lot of infected Americans.
In no way am I claiming this isn't bad. I'm just comparing it to another similar population size. We are supposed to be a couple weeks behind Italy. We will see how this goes here. Reality is we have a bunch of selfish idiots in this country that won't do the right thing and it will probably bite us in the ass more than anything the president does going forward....but yes, it would have been better if he would have hit the panic button when Tom Cotton was screaming about it and got things moving sooner.
My concern is if people are asymptomatic and shedding the virus, there might be some critical point for those same people not doing the whole stay home thing. Ie continue spread the virus from multiple people (increasing virus load between each other) - making actual symptoms show up in younger people (that are sharing the virus between multiple sources and increasing virus load). And while they still might be better off than older patients, they're now putting more stress on the stressed health care system. I want to see the ages of Dr's from Italy that passed but this isn't looking good if we can't follow basic stay at home orders.