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COVID-19 (coronavirus disease)/SARS-CoV-2 virus

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by tinman, Jan 22, 2020.

  1. Cokebabies

    Cokebabies Member

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    Zyrtec is a gen 2 antihistamine according to my allergist. I take it daily and do not get drowsy from it although when my allergies are super bad, Claritin D still does a better job at clearing me up but makes me sleepy af if I take it mid-day.
     
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  2. CCity Zero

    CCity Zero Member

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    I know we discussed blastine previously, but how long ago were you able to get it in Europe (it's unfortunately not available per fda yet)? I haven't noticed crazy side effects (I mean comparing it to like a benadryl), but I would take benadryl sparingly at night sometimes to help become a little drowsy if bad allergies etc.

    I'll need to check on Aerius - it's under brand name Clarinex, but needs a prescription here. I'm definitely open to trying different ones. The most recent one I recall was xyzal (levocetirizine), basically just the more pure form/active form of zyrtec (cetirizine)
     
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  3. Supermac34

    Supermac34 President, Von Wafer Fan Club

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    This is actually true. While there is evidence that you can transmit while asymptomatic, the odds are much, much lower than if you are exhibiting symptoms. It is purely a function of numbers and mechanics: if you are asymptomatic...or in the early stages, you quite simply don't have as many viruses to transmit...the mechanics come along: the main symptom other than fever is a cough...the cough is the main way it spreads: spraying spittle and droplets everywhere. No cough, no spray. That's not to say you CAN'T spread if you are asymptomatic...in fact, Doctors think that is the case...you CAN...its just a lot harder with minimal chances.

    Additionally, if you look at the pure numbers. Currently in the US you have ~500 confirmed cases. Even if there were 10X more, that's 5,000 cases. The US has 350,000,000 people. 1.42 people per million. Your chance in running into the 1.5 people in the million that have it right now are pretty low. And if that 1.5 persons is asymptomatic, the chances of transmission are lower still.

    Now, if we end up with 100,000 cases...or 500,000 cases, or 1 million cases...that'll be pretty bad, especially for older Americans, but even then, the chances that YOU will contract it are pretty low.

    My thinking, if we would get off our butts and start over testing, we could arrest the spread. China did it, South Korea is doing it (their daily new cases peaked earlier in the week last week and has been on steady decline, and they've been testing EVERYBODY basically.

    I think the biggest question for most people: am I willing to skip a trip? am I better at washing my hands? am I willing to stay home for a couple weeks, or order delivery instead of eating out? If i come down with a cold, will I STAY HOME!!! All those things have huge impacts on the spread.

    I think these things need to happen:

    1. We need to be over testing. It may make the case numbers jump up, but two densely populated countries have already shown you can arrest the spread by over testing.
    2. Employers need to relax their sick day policies to basically forgive sick days for the next 90 days. If you are sick, you should be able to stay home without penalty.
    3. Older Americans need to really limit their interaction with big groups of people or travel for the next 90 days or so.
    4. I need to know the bottom of the stock market because the market is going to end up over sold even if this thing causes a decent V shaped recession and a lot of people with cash on the sidelines are going to make a lot of money.

    EDIT: It is sort of scary that this thing is so much in the news right in time for Pollen season in Houston. Itchy throat and cough are WAY more likely to be caused by the yellow stuff all over everything.
     
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  4. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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  5. Supermac34

    Supermac34 President, Von Wafer Fan Club

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    Pollen is super bad right now, and its still Flu season, and you can also catch a regular cold. The chance its coronovirus-19 are super slim, like...ultra slim. Like buy a lottery scratcher slim.

    Also, the number 1 symptom present in over 90% of the cases is fever. In fact in a ton of cases its the only symptom. Hold off on the theraflu if it has acetaminophen in it to see if you have a fever...test it twice a day for the next 2-3 days. If no fever...well then, your chances went from microscopic to almost non existent.
     
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  6. ElPigto

    ElPigto Member
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    Right. Just to be clear, I'm not on the paranoid scale regarding if I have anything. I'm strictly attributing to pollen in the air (my car was freaking yellow a few days ago for crying out loud). I was doing theraflu since this is what I usually take. I got the flu twice in the last two years (I had a ton of stress and was not getting enough rest plus a terrible diet). This year, I'm a lot healthier. I was just responding to the poster who seemed to be a little paranoid from having the same issues I had.

    Thanks for the advice on the theraflu deal by the way.
     
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  7. Supermac34

    Supermac34 President, Von Wafer Fan Club

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    Came from CA. I just bet the total numbers on the West Coast are much larger than tested. Also, I'm wondering the the main spreading virus in the US is the less deadly one...the reason I say this...while we've seen deaths in some older population, we haven't seen a huge uptick in serious cases at hospitals. Our hospital system isn't struggling to contain a bunch of serious cases, you'd hear about it. So, either the case numbers are actually pretty low overall OR we have the less serious strain spreading more rapidly.
     
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  8. Astrodome

    Astrodome Member

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  9. Supermac34

    Supermac34 President, Von Wafer Fan Club

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  10. Ziggy

    Ziggy QUEEN ANON

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  11. Supermac34

    Supermac34 President, Von Wafer Fan Club

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  12. Astrodome

    Astrodome Member

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  13. malakas

    malakas Member

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    I started it about 3 years ago after my allergiologist prescribed it to me - but it is still over the counter just a bit more expensive .
    Oh yeah Aerius (Clarinex) is perfect even better than Blastine. because you don't have to have an empty stomach to take it or avoid grape juice.
    I tried it too at the end of the allergy season last year. And it is even cheaper.

    I am allergic to olive pollen and I live in the middle of an olive tree orchard :rolleyes:
    plus there is the Sahara dust every spring so if it works for me it will work for most anyone.

    Thankfully here my allergy comes in early May so if I am still alive by then I may have already passed the virus and don't have to deal with both at the same time.
     
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  14. Supermac34

    Supermac34 President, Von Wafer Fan Club

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    South Korea has over 50 million people squeezed in together.
     
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  15. malakas

    malakas Member

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    The ****ed up thing with this is that the strains don't cause cross immunity.
    Meaning not only you can get one after the other but also both at the same time.

    And I don't believe the Chinese doctors when they said they killed off the L strain.
     
  16. Supermac34

    Supermac34 President, Von Wafer Fan Club

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    Its not killed off, but it is self limiting to an extent. Since it presents with more serious consequences, we find it more easily (people go to the Doctor sooner or get sicker), and can keep it from spreading more easily.
     
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  17. Amiga

    Amiga Member

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    Thought this is a good blog post from a local Houston pediatrics


    http://peterjung.blogspot.com/2020/03/post-48-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic.html


    Well before news of COVID-19 wreaked havoc on our borders, travels, news cycle, and hand sanitizer supplies, influenza was quietly going about its yearly routine business with minimal hubbub from the media.

    To put things in perspective, consider that for the 2019-20 flu season, there have been an estimated 20,000 - 52,000 deaths thus far per the Center for Disease Control in the United States alone. That is just one country.

    In contrast, there have been approximately 3,600 deaths from COVID-19 worldwide. More deaths are sure to follow, and quite possibly, the final tally may far outstrip that of the seasonal flu.

    An unknown enemy is always more frightening than one that is known. With the flu, we know what to expect, we have medications to combat it, and most importantly there is an effective vaccine readily available each winter.

    Unfortunately, with COVID-19 there are still a LOT of unknowns.

    But we know substantially more now than we did when this all started and we are learning more each day.

    SATURDAY, MARCH 7, 2020
    Case Fatality Rate is simply the ratio of deaths from a certain disease to the total number of people diagnosed with this disease for a certain time period.

    To put things in perspective, the 1918 Spanish Flu, one of the worst pandemics of all time, had a CFR of approximately 2.5% to 10% - meaning that about 2.5 to 10 percent of all people who caught the Spanish Flu died. Anything greater than 2.5% would certainly be devastating worldwide.

    Conversely, the seasonal flu typically has a CFR of approximately 0.1%, which is still concerning, but as mentioned in the introduction of the blog, the world has learned to take this in stride.

    The more data is collected, the more accurate the CFR estimates become. The initial CFR estimates for COVID-19 were in the 2-3% range and recently the World Health Organization released a 3.4% estimate.

    Certainly, these estimates are enough to give even the staunchest epidemiologist pause.

    But in order to make the best guesstimates of CFR early in the course of a pandemic there must be widespread testing. Lesser testing detects fewer cases, which skews the CFR higher. This was seen with the 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pandemic.

    Currently, there are two microcosms of the pandemic that can give us the best estimates of the CFR for COVID-19. In both instances, widespread testing of the particular cohort has provided better data and thus a truer estimate of the real CFR.

    1. The Diamond Princess cruise ship

    The Diamond Princess cruise ship which had approximately 700 lab confirmed cases of COVID-19, has reported 7 deaths to date. This translates to a CFR of 1%. Importantly, it should be noted that all of the deaths occurred in passengers 70 years and older.

    2. South Korea

    South Korea is currently testing thousands of people a day and thus far 6,088 cases have been detected of which 37 have died. This translates to a CFR of 0.6% for South Korea. This is probably more accurate than the cruise ship figure, as the Korea numbers are more age-demographically balanced, whereas the cruise was populated by predominantly older people.

    While a 0.6% CFR is much better than a 3.4% CFR, it is still significantly higher than the seasonal flu's 0.1% CFR. That figure would translate to 6x the number of people dying, if the same number of people who catch the flu annually were to catch COVID-19.

    The hope is that even in South Korea, there are many who have been infected that have NOT been tested, and are thus unaccounted for in the statistics. Accurately capturing their data would certainly bring the CFR percentage even lower.

    The bottom line is that while it is unlikely that the final CFR tally will come in at 3.4%, there is a strong chance that this pandemic is more deadly than the seasonal flu. More testing, better data, and clarity are sure to come.


    Thus far, children are not being seriously affected.

    A huge encouraging statistic as a pediatrician is that no children under 10 years of age have died from the COVID-19 to date and, for unclear reasons few children are developing severe symptoms. This pattern is similar to what was seen during the outbreaks of SARS and MERS.

    Children are at similar risk as the rest of the population in terms of becoming infected; so it is imperative to consider them as vectors of the virus, especially since they are less symptomatic and thus more ambulatory, and less prone to prudent hygiene habits.


    Healthy people 60 years and younger are at much lower risk.
    Although there are some fatalities in nearly every age demographic, the vast majority of deaths are occurring in individuals 60 years and older. Further, people who have a severe chronic medical condition affecting their heart, lungs or kidneys are also at greater risk. This follows a similar pattern to influenza and most severe respiratory viruses.


    So, if there is a silver lining in any of this, those who are under 60 years of age without significant health problems have an excellent prognosis should they become infected with COVID-19.
    Further encouraging is that about 80% of people who contract COVID-19 recover without needing special treatment.

    But the fact remains that as of the writing of this blog, the CFR is likely higher than the seasonal flu and possibly significantly higher. Intensive Care Units and hospitals in China and in South Korea, particularly near the epicenters of the outbreaks are overwhelmed.

    If these two countries are a peek into the future for the rest of the world, this is going to be a long and difficult battle and it will have to start with grassroots efforts. We as a society will need to be vigilant in following the directives of our public health officials and practicing a high level of personal hygiene habits.

    The CDC has an excellent list:
    1. Avoid close contact with people who are sick.
    2. Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth.
    3. Stay home when you are sick.
    4. Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, then throw the tissue in the trash.
    5. Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces using a regular household cleaning spray or wipe.
    6. Facemasks: CDC does NOT recommend that people who are well wear a facemask. Those who are showing symptoms should wear them to prevent the spread of disease. Health care workers and caregivers should also wear them when taking care of those who are infected.
    7. Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds. If soap and water are not available use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer with at least 60% alcohol.

    For the sake of those who are most vulnerable, we must band together to slow the spread of this disease. By slowing transmission, hopefully hospitals will not be overwhelmed with a tsunami of cases leading to a likely depletion of important resources such as ICU beds, ventilators, and healthcare workers.

    Additionally, there is hope that by this time next year a vaccine will be available. As more research is published and experience gained, the medical community will develop a better understanding of which combination of antiviral medications and treatments work best.

    And if COVID-19 mimics other respiratory viruses, the upcoming warmer weather may provide a temporary reprieve, giving the world a chance to catch its collective breath before the battle begins anew in the upcoming fall and winter.

    Based on current epidemiological data, it is likely that the COVID-19 virus is not going away anytime soon. But the human race is strong and resourceful and we have more weapons at our fingertips than ever before.

    Now, more than ever, for the sake of the elderly and those with fragile health, it is imperative that we do the small things like washing our hands and staying at home when sick.

    When we stand together, there is nothing too strong or too deadly that the human spirit cannot overcome.
     
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  18. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
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  19. Buck Turgidson

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    If you'll remember, he was the assclown who showed up with a gas mask on to sign the relief bill.
     
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  20. B-Bob

    B-Bob "94-year-old self-described dreamer"
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    Well, maybe he should have left it on when he attended CPAC.

    And, further, maybe they could rename it CPAP in the future.
     
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