D&D Coronavirus thread

I do not doubt that it will impact more rural communities more. However I can tell you that where I am I provide legal defense for two of the three largest medical care providers and no they are not freaking out and are not concerned as they already have made preparations. I cannot speak for smaller rural areas/communities as my wife and my friends do not treat patients in small rural areas.

I’ll take the under on blood in the streets as well.

 

I have been following a UK expert on public health.
The ICU beds in the UK are 4 thousand for 60+ million.
In Greece they are fewer than 600 for 11 million.

I don't know how many there are in the US. Are there 500 thousand ICU beds? 200 thousand?
How do you expect otherwise to treat a disease that requires 20% of infected to be hospitalised and get oxygen treatment? That has a RO that is from 2 to 6?

I don't know why these doctors are scoffing at you, maybe the US has amazing facilities and millions of oxygen tanks with trained nurses and doctors.
Maybe in the US hospitals there is no fear of endemic hospital infections because the doctors wear gloves and masks for any patient visit.
If it is so at least you can limit the mortality rate.
Maybe you are so well equipped that there is really no need to fear 80% of the population falling ill, who knows?

I have never been to an american hospital so I don't know.
I know however that Europe is fcked.

 

They aren’t going to do anything as far as containment is concerned (I am not stating they should or shouldn’t). I will be curious to see how this impacts attitudes in the USA about healthcare and trust of federal agencies.

 

I honestly don’t know either... only passing on the information.

As for ICU beds in USA, there are 7 times as many in the USA per capita when compared to the U.K. I know my client said that they and their sister hospitals can easy double that number as they have the staffing.

 

...so they are expecting this do just die off or for a vaccine to save us?

So far, we've shown no ability to control this, and the death rate is looking likely to be around a 10x + higher then the flu, if this virus can't be contained, with that high of a deathrate, I don't see where the confidence comes from in the statement that millions won't die. So there must be an argument must be that this will be contained? Or that the death rate isn't 10x+ but only like 2 or 3x? I hope so, but the majority of scientists seem to disagree.

 

So they are going to quarantine whole regions tomorrow in Italy.. This is because they don't have enough ICU beds? And it's not a problem here in US, so we are not going to try and contain this thing - at least not to such extreme degree as they've been doing in Italy?

Is there a good source out there for info on age group breakdown of relative susceptibility to developing pneumonia and other severe symptoms?

What should I tell my mother who needs to travel later in the month for important personal matters?

Is it too much to expect the government/cdc to provide this much information at this point?

Wish I had more to go by than the 'remain calm' and 'things are under control' info we've got so far.

 

The US does not have enough ICU beds or even general beds to treat the coronavirus if a high % of the population is infected. I was talking mainly rhetorically .

If say 50% of the american population gets the virus that simply means the US needs
33 million hospital beds.
10+ million ICU beds
Now I don't know the numbers you have but I know that you don't have 10 million ICU beds.


And how much later in the month your mother wants to fly?
More than 2 weeks from now?
If yes then even if your mother was an 18 year old girl she should cancel and try to get a refund because it's almost certain her flight will be cancelled any way.
Eariler than that she just is under immense risk of being infected.

2 weeks ago Italy had 20 cases. Today 1/4 of their population is under quarantine. So you can tell anyone who wants to travel that.

I posted the % previously in this thread.
Death rate is
5% for 60s
10% for 70%
almost 20% for 80s.

Risk factors are hypertension, diabetes, cardiopathy, lung conditions, any immunosuppresion, kidney conditions.

20%+ of the general population require hospitalisation for weeks.
15% are severe cases, 5-10% require intensive care ( ICU beds needed).

Here are the symptoms of the 20% who need hospitalisation

 

The flu kills 10-60k a year in the US. At 10x, that’s 600k top. At 20x, 1.2m. Million of death in the US isn’t likely unless there is mutation to an even deadlier form (said 50x).

I think if you look at China, containment is under 5k death. Without containment, 500k maybe.

Yes, some will consider trading off the economy for 500k. But that’s not going to happen. The private and public sectors are live witnessing what the rest of the world are doing and so at min many citizens and local gov here will not do that trade off - iow, the economy is probably going to tank whatever propaganda this admin want to push out to paint a rosy pic. The problem of course is they might not be able to do much in time given the lack of testing and national coordination. So maybe it is just a 2nd flu in term of death or 10x that.

 

At a US epicenter of this virus, 70 of 180 staff are showing symptoms. That’s the kind of data you see when the virus sneak up on you.... why testing is so important.

https://www.bellevuereporter.com/ne...-breaks-silence-at-saturday-press-conference/

 

Are these numbers about the flu?

 

the AHA best guess is about coronavirus.

 

We had a perfect response. We closed the barn door not more than a month or 2 after the horses got out. They say it's one fastest closings on record, did you know that?

And meanwhile we are developing horse detection kits, maybe some of the greatest you've never seen. All of our very great equine people. You know they say I could've been a rodeo rider? Would you believe that?

 

Just imagine if our Gov’t hadn’t had THREE MONTHS to prepare for this!