Well the VP is himself elected, so I don't think he can be dumped after the election. He'd have to be impeached. But, he'd be easy to marginalize and ignore after the election. I assume that's the rationale -- he does terribly with women, but he might be able to sucker enough suburban white women with a token running mate. All they'd need is a rationalization to make voting for the p***y-grabber and child abuser defensible.
Side topic: That article is about how she filled out her voter registration form. Curious, does SC require you to answer the Race question? I know most forms ask, but also know Cali’s online form doesn’t require you to answer it, for instance.
I have no idea, but I think it's ridiculous to say she answered a self-identity question "wrong." Or that marking it on a voter registration card is a "race claim."
For me, with Pence, it's the faux preacher thing. Snow-white hair. Earnest, practiced expression, bordering on sphincter pain. Putting a science denier in charge of the coronavirus response is almost as bad as putting me in charge of....well, anything, but especially of the RNC: "Uh, me? You guys must have my voting record, right?" "That's okay. You look Republican. That'll do."
Yeah of all the things I'll care about as a voter going into November, how Nikki Haley self identified one time on a voter ballot is not necessarily what I would feel like it top of list. Can't say the same about Republican voters though who would have made the next 4 months about Elizabeth Warren's DNA test if she somehow won the primary. (Yes Warren's self identification scandal was slightly worse... I get that, but the fact is it's still in the same bucket of Sh$t nobody really should care about).
I couldn't care less how she filled out a race question on a voter registration form. but, I would be pretty upset with South Carolina if that is a manditory question. Anyone know? Sorry for the side topic: No voter registration form should ever require you to answer that, imso.
"The federal government requires South Carolina to document race or ethnic group for voters by the National Voter Registration Act." http://lwvcharleston.org/vr_faqs.html#10 If you go to the South Carolina online voter registration right now, Race is a required field but the dropdown options include "Multiple", "Other", and "Unknown". And of course you can easily lie about it like Haley is alleged to have done. For a long while, I would check Other on these kinds of forms and write in "Franco-Texan." Anyway, I'm satisfied with the data collection approach -- require an entry but with latitude to dodge the question (though I would like to see "Decline to Answer"). You don't see them any more, but the forms that would require you to pick only one race were the most annoying. I was Pacific Islander on those.
If I'm Nikki Haley, I'm running in 2024. I don't want to have to defend the Trump administration's policies, and I don't want to have to defend random things Trump does, and assuming Trump loses, I don't want the loser label attached to me. If Biden is running in 2024, she's in really good shape. (more likely, Biden doesn't run for a 2nd term)
There's a Pocohantas joke somewhere in there that I know @tallanvor can deliver in his own special unironic way.
I think the shift in alignment towards Trump back earlier this Fall when Haley went on her book tour tells us alot. I think it tells us that the data shows the Republican voters favorability with Trump will still be at a very high level beyond November regardless of what happens. It also likely shows that center left Democrats are highly highly unlikely to switch sides anytime soon with how Trump has gotten the party to go all in on the Trump cult. I think she's going to have to hug Trump regardless so if that's the case it might actually not be a bad idea to just go ahead, and get VP experience now as a strategy to ultimately gain the white house. Her biggest hurdle will be Don Jr. and Ivanka who will be her biggest rivals to get the supreme leaders heir apparent appointment. Trump would love for nothing more than a reality TV apprentice style cage match vying for his approval with these three who can prove who is the most loyal to the King. The media would love it too. Pretty depressing set of circumstances if Biden/Bernie do not win in November in a crushing defeat of Trumpism.
Sure - she doesn't want to piss off Trump, but she also doesn't want to have to answer for him. Her best is just to stay out of politics until he's gone - likely 2021 - and then move forward without him. That way, she doesn't piss off his base, but she's also not sucked in by it. Parties switch modes quickly - in 2024, Trump could be all but forgotten in the GOP as they move away from his craziness if they get their asses kicked in 2020.
Fingers crossed, but my guess would be that this scenario gets pushed back by 4 years, unfortunately.
Possible, but not sure it's likely. Trump isn't going to go away quietly and he's the first Republican to have this type of base support since Reagan.
Speaking of the GOP future and all that...is there doubt in anyone's mind that Ted Cruz will be the next nominee? Has to be the closest thing to Trump I can think of.
I think that's wise. Even if a Democrat wins in 2020, there probably isn't much incumbency advantage to overcome in 2024 -- Sanders and Biden will both be so old. The strongest incumbency might be if the president dies in office and it's actually the VP running for reelection. But @dobro1229 is right that there is going to be a succession from Trump, and if Haley isn't the anointed one with that base, being more palatable to moderates won't help her. It'll be a fine balancing act to beat rivals in claiming the inheritance and not pick up the baggage on the way. Kiss of death?
If I was advising her, I would be advising her to just stay low for a year for sure because you are right. But I do think that the data shows that if you are aggressively trying to gain power with the GOP RIGHT NOW, hugging Trump is what you should do... it's just not what I would advise because I think the upside of taking a risk that he loses & becomes unpopular quick is higher for her than hugging him now which seems lower risk since he's an incumbent with such high approval in the party (since it is basically his cult/party) although it has much lower upside than if she kept her hands clean, and then emerged if/when Trump is exorcised from the party, and she's right there with a good case to make to lead the ticket in 24. So I'm not saying I would advise her to hug Trump and go all in now, but I do think that the data driven GOP strategists are probably advising her that she should probably do it now if there's real presidential level power on the line which they probably think there is in 2024 if Trump anoints you. And lets be honest... they probably also believe the data shows that they can spin and lie themselves away from Trump if Trump plummets. When in doubt just plan on lying and spinning your way out of the situation.
