Look at the 2018 analysis of the Obama/Trump districts, vs the Romney/Clinton districts. IIRC, zero of the former came back to D, something like 7/8 of the latter flipped to D in 2018. The Michael Moore plan didn't work then. No evidence it's gonna work now.
Bernie won Oklahoma against Clinton by double digits and he'll lose it by double digits tonight. Bernie was highly confident he was going to win North Carolina and he will lose it by double digits. Biden spent ZERO dollars in Minnesota and he has won that state. He was a non factor in Mass and spent no dollars there and has won that state. He appears likely to win Maine. He has hit viability in VERMONT!!! a state that Bernie crushed Clinton in. The reports out of Texas are that the same day voting has broken for Biden over Bernie. He appears likely to finish closer in California than anticipated. Downplaying this night makes zero sense to me. Joe Biden has staged a primary electoral miracle and should be the new poster boy for "comeback kid."
It's a big deal because he's racking up big delegate counts over Bernie in those places Bernie is barely winning, drawing and even losing where he was predicted to do the same. There was a legit concern as recently as Saturday that Biden was toast as of Monday.
Actually, If Biden is close in Texas, that is a big deal for him. Bernie was supposed to have a blowout in Texas and California. The map makes this look bad for Bernie. California is always going to the Democrats. Bernie can't win in the South. He lost Minnesota.
California immediately called for Bernie, last chance Bernie Bros, we need a hail mary 40%+ win, cocks out gents!
These numbers: Sanders 2016 2020 MN 61% 30% AK 29% 20.8% OK 51.9% 25.1% VA 35.2% 23.1% TN 32.4% 24,5% CO 59% 36%
I want to point out one thing about Minnesota. Biden is absolutely destroying Bernie in the Northeastern part of the state. Northeast Minnesota is a union heavy working class part of the state (mining, timber, shipping, and other labor industries). Biden is getting 30+ percentage point margins in the core Iron Range counties. I hope this puts to bed the Sanders myth about rural union Democrats. It should be clear that Ancestral Democrats aren't voting for Bernie. In the Twin Cities urban core, Warren did end up being a spoiler. She did quite well and probably took a good chunk of votes from Bernie. And with Biden doing well in the suburbs, the math just wasn't there for Bernie.
[Educational Post] Biden has the blacks (for now at least), but not the Spanish-speaking community. Nevada and New Mexico are both in play in 2020 if Sleepy Joe slurs his way to winning the primary. These were very close states in 2016 where Gary Johnson's votes exceeded the margin for victory. New Hampshire is also a probable Trump flip - 2700 vote difference in 2016. GOOD DAY
Ok. Fair Enough. I've been following from a distance so I wonder if Bernies momentum in the first couple of states created a collective skew in expectations for people talking with each other, echoing opinions around. Maybe not. I like the term "Ancestral Democrats" that @geeimsobored used. That describes exactly the people that I believe should be in Biden's pocket, who comprise southern states and the rust belt. It is often ignored how much working class unions types dislike the other Dem constituents below them on the social ladder. But again, I'm looking at this whole thing from 10,000 feet. When you get down in the nitty gritty it may look different. Also, it bears repeating the 30 years of baggage that weighed down Hillary Clinton. People completely just didn't see all the animus that rightly or wrongly people feel towards her, presumably because they themselves didnt feel it.
Crazy. Joe Biden is winning nearly 50% of the Harris County same day vote here in Texas and has won the primary.
One thing I will say in his defense is that a lot of those Sanders numbers in 2016 were protest votey. A lot of people in both sides accepted the Clinton inevitability narrative that eventually happened and turnout in VA, for example, reflected it. This instead is a real race that activated more voters. Sanders outperformed vs expectations in 2016. But they were very low!
I was thinking to myself, who is the best person to handle the coronavirus type crisis. Biden, as a moderate/compassionate technocrat, instantly came to mind with Bernie not even in the picture. Could that have anything to do with the sudden and unexpected surge that Biden is having today? Just a thought..
The turnout in Virginia was up 65% over 2016. That says ALOT. If that turnout is a majority of black voters, that's bodes well for Biden in those 4 key states that Trump won. That should SCARE Trump.
