Hey what about latest numbers, or the thousands of passengers quarantined on those cruise ships, with 11 confirmed infected on board? Discuss this virus you trolls!
Maybe I'm not seeing the trolls (?) Anyway, interesting take in talking it over with my biologist wife last night. The numbers coming out of China are probably accurate for what they are: confirmed cases and confirmed deaths by the virus. But there is probably a little bit of a situation like Chernobyl here (not to to be dramatic). But it's like this: Engineer: "Our geiger counters say the radiation level is only X." Physicist: "But what is the max reading of the geiger counter." Engineer: "Um, yeah. The max reading is X." So they only have so many kits and so much bandwidth to test for cases. There are tons of unconfirmed cases walking around in China (and probably elsewhere now). But I honestly think there's some reassuring news in in this idea. Chinese officials are much more likely to have confirmed a death by coronavirus than have confirmed an infected person. This means, to my thinking, that the mortality rate is probably much lower than the 2+% we have seen. People with mild symptoms are never going to be tested. The kill rate could be as low as 1% or even lower, when all's said and done.
"3.6 Roentgen. Not great, not terrible." That line is burned into my mind for the rest of my life. 25,000 infected. Not great, not terrible. I understand why it is easier for people to reduce everything to one number, but the focus exclusively on death rate is limiting. Transmission rate and ease of transmission seem like they are as important in determining threat.
not sure , but I heard from a Physicist that geiger counter does not quantify ,it just hit target/response to the presence sort of thing
I agree that is there is a bottleneck issue of sorts that is compounded by how controlling the Chinese govt is. Another anonymous account, but worth a listen. It's so hard to get true information out of China. You have to try to get it in these roundabout ways. Another account I had was from the mma message board I get on from someone who lives 15 miles outside of the quarantine zone by Wuhan. He said this "As many of you know, I live in Wuhan. I am currently about 15 miles outside of the quarantined area. Until today my wife has not been to awfully concerned, but she has been talking to her friends stuck quarantined in the city and getting some really big numbers for sick people, far far above what is being reported and she has been going into 911 mode, stocking up on food, we are watching helicopters flying around the area (i have never seen Helo's here, they look to be Red/White rescue type helo's not military FYI). We know the numbers being reported are false... 1. Many people do not even bother to go to the hospital 2. Many at the hospital do not get tested (limited number of tests available) 3. They are converting buildings into temp. hospitals. I think the government is trying hard to contain this and god knows the hospital workers are doing thier best, they are heroes. But I wish the government would stop worrying about "face", blaming others, and start letting people speak."
Again, these are only the confirmed via limited testing, but here it is, thanks to BBC. It was nearly tripling every three days, and in the most recent version it did not double, but once more, they may well have hit their max measurement capability.
I was part of of a group of super fans who followed everything Matt did and recorded all his stats -- we called ourselves the 'Geiger Counters'.
you're welcome in basketball reference Geiger counter is like Gerald Green or Westbrook's 3pt%, both players know there is a rim, they keep shooting, but with low accuracy , Radiation Survey Meter though is like Ryan Anderson , comes with assertive dosage accuracy but needs to be surrounded by shot blockers, play makers and good background reference indicators of photon energy
I imagine death rate in Hubei could be skewed by under reporting of infections but not deaths. It seems like it would easier to mischaracterize an infection as the common cold or the flu in order to sweep it under the rug than it would be to mischaracterize a dead body with signs of infection as anything but the coronavirus. In that case, actual infections would be somewhere north of 100k.
It’s starting to spread rapidly in Japan. https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 20 of the new cases from Japan appear to be passengers aboard a cruise ship. Glad I’m not on that ship.
China detection : 10% of cases Overseas: 25% of cases. Everyday estimated 50 thousand new infections in China, Epidemic doubling every 5 days. Impossible to contain like SARS or MERS. "Not reassuring that the number of overseas deaths is low because it can take 20 days from severe symptoms to death so there is a lag."
What China is doing with censorship is absolutely not coming from a good place. It hinders containment and scientific knowledge. HOWEVER, there is , and I say it only now in this case, a merit to censoring some information from the locals. These people believe they will have to be quarantineed for a few more weeks, while all estimations are talking about 2.5 months more until the peak of the outbreak in Wuhan- not the end, only the peak. Its extremely likely they will remain in quarantine and isolation until summer. There are significant chances of widespread panic, chaos and anarchy. It is the role of the state to try to minimise this in such an extreme situation. They are already incredibly disciplined and cool headed and they have my whole heart respect for that.
Unfortunately there is a category of victims observed so far, who have had only mild symptoms which would hardly require medical attention, seem to have almost recovered and then suddendly die from the aftermath. So there will be a number of deaths from the virus unreported. How high it is this number is, and what % of infected are affected in such a way, noone knows. I too have begun playing this game after this epidemic and man it is so difficult. I barely made it in normal with my bacteria "Woj Bomb".
