https://www.thegazette.com/subject/...traw-poll-andrew-yang-bernie-sanders-20200128 The kids are alright!!! I can't wait for the result.
Updating my picks from the early state thread. Sanders > Buttigieg > Warren > Biden I think Buttigieg and Warren's dedication to the ground game in Iowa will pay off. This puts Biden camp in a tough spot and makes New Hampshire matter a lot more than they previously anticipated. I'm almost as interested in the fight for 5th place as anything because that spot will go a long way towards determining whether Klobuchar or Yang can seize some momentum. Even grabbing just one delegate is important to establishing a foothold going forward.
Optically it looks terrible. Mathematically it's Allright. Spots 2 through 4 should have a fairly close delegate count.
Lmao, two Klobuchar votes already. She has a zero percent chance at winning. I'd would be big hail mary if she could hit the 15% delegate. I think it's a toss-up between Bernie and Biden, Bernie is the favorite in the polls but I wouldn't be surprised to see many Pete fans abandon him for Biden which could really sway thing for him.
good explainer on rules https://decisiondeskhq.com/the-ia-democratic-caucus-its-a-bit-different-than-a-regular-election/
I’ve never really followed the Iowa Caucuses before but am this year and it’s pretty interesting how the caucuses work where you shift to you second choice literally in the room. That adds a dynamic that could be indicative of how people view their “I think this guy/gal has the best chance of winning”. I personally feel like Bernie really has had a surge I honestly think because of the impeachment. It’s the law of physics that every action has an equal and opposite reaction. I think just the disgust at how Congress just rolled over in sanctioning pure corruption just made people my age and younger sick. I think you are likely to see a movement similar to that of the Trump surge where a good portion of the electorate says “this” (government as is) is completed broken and we need radical change. Bernie is a change candidate and the other candidates have been so concerned with appealing to so-called moderates that it has turned off the energy of the party that is becoming more and more pissed off and tired of the corruption in DC. I worry about Bernie in the suburbs so I can’t commit to him yet, but I just see a full head of steam about to blow up the pathway for every other candidate.
The final dmr poll leaked. https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-bl...on-live/254963/?amp&__twitter_impression=true
First Alignment from major Des Moines caucus (watching on PBS) Biden and Sanders almost didn't make the first cut ... each scrambling to cross the "viability" line Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar (in that order) all beat Biden and Sanders in first alignment. This is NOT a final vote Second Alignment voting next ... not sure if this is the same one CBS is live at...(I think they are different). CBS just said Sanders and Buttigieg got most in 1st Alignment of the Des Moines caucus that they are covering. Warren also made viability. Oddly, they didn't mention Biden.
It's not as stupid as it is unfair to the poor and those with children. Giving up a few hours on a weeknight is not easy. It is cool that it has quasi ranked choice voting though.
There’s just no way that you can convince me a caucus format is the most logical way to do this. I’m sure Iowans love it, though. Side note: preliminary entrance poll data says 92% of caucusgoers are white
