Ready The Clown Car: The First Batch of Democrats Are Ready To Announce Their 2020 Bids

26 days to go until the Iowa Caucuses, but it really does not feel like it. Does it?

In past election cycles, the excitement and the tension would be building and the media attention would be high and increasing. But not this time, as the Democrat's impeachment agenda and the current situation in Iraq and Iran have taken the wind very largely out of the sails of the presidential primary contest.

This cannot be what the Democrats were hoping for at this point.

 

He probably cannot. But he is almost certainly the wealthiest person ever to run for the office of President. So that could at least make his candidacy interesting.

 

Bernie Sanders currently leads in the RCP Poll Average in both Iowa and New Hampshire. If he wins both of those two states, all of the polls for all of the following states will be significantly altered by that and the rest of the race will look very different than it does today.

 

Leftist pollster wunderkind Nate Silver - who is widely loved and adored by many on the left because he predicted that Barack Obama would win his races - has developed a new prediction model for the upcoming primary contest for the Democrats (Trump gets a bye to the general election, so the Republicans will not have a primary contest this year).

Based on this prediction model, he observes that will Joe Biden is the "Frontrunner" in the contest, he is not in a strong enough position to be considered the "Favorite" to win the contest.

Biden Is The Front-Runner, But There’s No Clear Favorite

But saying the former vice president is the front-runner doesn’t really tell the whole story. He may be the most likely nominee, but he’s still a slight underdog relative to the field, with a 40 percent chance of winning a majority of pledged delegates1 by the time of the last scheduled Democratic contest — the Virgin Islands caucus on June 6.

Iowa matters … a lot

How candidates’ chances of winning a majority or plurality of delegates changes if they win Iowa, according to FiveThirtyEight’s primary forecast.

{Chart at the link}

Biden, for instance, would be a heavy favorite if he wins Iowa, with an 80 percent chance of a delegate majority and an 84 percent chance of a plurality. His majority chances would fall to 20 percent following an Iowa loss, however. Sanders would be a slight favorite to win a majority after an Iowa win, with a 61 percent chance, but his majority chances would fall to 8 percent with a loss there. Warren would also be a slight favorite to win a delegate majority after an Iowa win, but Buttigieg would not be (although his position would be substantially strengthened).​

The article is reasonably long and wonky in the way that Nate Silver articles typically are.

Silver thinks the outcome in Iowa - the first contest on February 3, could go a long way to deciding who wins the nomination. So if this is right, it makes sense that any candidate that is truly trying to win the nomination should be pulling out all the stops and launching whatever campaign weaponry they have over the next 24 days. I am not so sure that it is as important as all of that, but whoever wins will be a force to be reckoned with for the foreseeable future, that a virtual certainty.

So if Biden wins in Iowa, then the probability (according to Silver) that he wins the nomination is 80%. Wow, that is high. Likewise, if Sanders wins, the probability that he wins the nomination - based on Silver's "prediction model" is 61%.

I will at this point very likely vote for Bernie Sanders in the Texas primary on Super Tuesday on March 3 (just after the first four primaries). I am rooting for Bernie to win the nomination for the Democrats, so I hope he wins in Iowa, too. That being said, this 61% number that Silver has produced for Bernie, if he wins in Iowa, does not pass the smell test for me. That is too high. Yes, I am contradicting the leftist pollster wunderkind Nate Silver. While I hope he is right about that, I think he is probably wrong.

Silver regards Biden as the current favorite in Iowa, despite Biden being in third place in the RCP poll average, behind Bernie Sanders and Mayor Pete. However, to be fair, the margin between first and third is 1.7 points, which is really too close to call.

In any case, it is now time for the top four candidates and any others who think they have a real chance in Iowa to pull out the long knives and get to work. The lengthy preseason is over. It is go time.

 

Mayor Bloomberg has passed Mayor Pete to climb into fourth place in the betting odds:

Betting Odds (RCP Average)
36.1 - Biden
26.7 - Sanders
13.8 - Warren
12.1 - Bloomberg
11.9 - Buttigieg

Tom Steyer must be fuming to watch his campaign flatline while fellow billionaire Michael Bloomberg climbs briskly up the league tables, just as the actual voting is preparing to commence.

 

It is official. Marianne Williamson is out of the race.

Marianne Williamson drops out of 2020 race

This is sad to see. She was fun.

 

Bernie is turning his guns on Elizabeth Warren. This is big news, as there has been a bit of an apparent peace pact between these two before now. But just like the peace pact between Trump and Cruz in 2016, it was not to last. At the end of the primary contest, there can be only one.

Bernie campaign slams Warren as candidate of the elite

The non-aggression pact between Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren is seriously fraying. Sanders’ campaign has begun stealthily attacking Warren as a candidate of the upper crust who could not expand the Democratic base in a general election, according to talking points his campaign is using to persuade voters obtained by POLITICO.

The script instructs Sanders volunteers to tell voters leaning toward the Massachusetts senator that the “people who support her are highly-educated, more affluent people who are going to show up and vote Democratic no matter what” and that “she's bringing no new bases into the Democratic Party.”

“I like Elizabeth Warren. [optional]” the script begins. “In fact, she’s my second choice. But here’s my concern about her.” It then pivots to the criticisms of Warren.​

This is the beginning of the playoffs. The semi-finals for the Democrats, if you will. The far left appears to have resolved down to Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. The other brackets aside from the establishment bracket seem to have basically vanished. Which is very interesting.

If one of them can consolidate that support, they will have a real chance against the current frontrunner Joe Biden, who is only averaging about 29% in the national polls. And quite a bit less in Iowa and New Hampshire, both of which Bernie Sanders has held a narrow poll lead in for a while now.

Warren has been looking surprisingly weak. I never thought she was really going to win the nomination, but the current level of ambivalence towards her and her campaign by Democrat voters is surprising to me. Bernie looks to be peaking at the right time.

The smart thing for Sanders to do is to try to take Warren out early - and with this move, he looks to be doing that. Warren is going to have to respond, which it does not look like she really wants to do. But this is could well be her Waterloo. For Warren, this is an existential threat to her candidacy.

And with that, this game is truly on.

 

Judge Judy has endorsed Mayor Bloomberg and is out on the stump helping him to campaign in Texas.

Some of you may laugh, but this is almost an Oprah quality "get". Really smart. Judge Judy has some reach and her endorsement will carry some weight. One or two more clever endorsements by people of this sort and Bloomberg's campaign could launch into a state of real contention.

Judge Judy: America “deserves greatness,” joins Bloomberg in Texas

The jury is in – Judy Sheindlin a.k.a. Judge Judy, has endorsed billionaire Michael Bloomberg for president. The television star is even going on the campaign trail with him to plead his case to voters. The two campaigned together in Texas Saturday.

Sheindlin, like Bloomberg, is 77 years old and a New Yorker. She references Bloomberg’s tenure as Mayor of New York City as proof of his skills – he’s “innovative,” “courageous” and “beholden to no one.” Most of all, she was searching for greatness in the Democrat primary and wasn’t finding it with the other candidates.​

 

Elizabeth Warren responds:

Warren: 'Disappointed' to hear Sanders urging volunteers 'to trash me'

Sen. Elizabeth Warren said she was “disappointed” to hear that her presidential primary opponent Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) was reportedly urging his campaign volunteers to “trash” her and warned against the “factionalism” she said impacted the 2016 election. "I was disappointed to hear that Bernie is sending his volunteers out to trash me,” Warren said Sunday, speaking to reporters in Iowa.

“Democrats need to unite our party, and that means pulling in all parts of the Democratic coalition,” she said. "I hope Bernie reconsiders and turns his campaign in a different direction,” the senator added.

A spokesperson for the Sanders said the campaign does not have a response to Warren’s comments.​

And "A spokesperson for the Sanders said the campaign does not have a response to Warren’s comments"

They will be facing off at a debate Tuesday in Des Moines. What are the chances that this comes up as a topic for discussion during the debate?