Being objective here, Trump deserves ZERO credit for a de-escalation & potential diplomacy. He was the one who started this escalation to begin with, and everytime this is brought up in discussion of whether or not to re-elect in November it has to be said that this escalation was completely unnecessary and only started by Trump wanting, out of spite, to do away with an Obama accomplishment. He was willing to risk American lives to one-up Obama in a diplomatic negotiation. "I got the nuclear deal Obama couldn't" is exactly what he wants in the end. It's about campaigning against Obama, and Biden, and he'll put every American life at risk to get one political talking point. He's a horrible president, and should never have even been considered as a serious candidate by the Right. If Trump gets a "better deal" than Obama I will not say "Bravo".... F that. Being willing to risk American lives for a political "one-up" on Obama is not something we should ever applaud.
It's so hilarious that people think right after being at the brink of new war, after the US first renegged on a deal that Iran was abiding by and then killing one of their top military commanders, Iran magically now is ready to sit at the table and start new negotiations for a new deal.
You obviously have zero idea how life is in Iran post-sanctions. The average consumer there has had their spending power cut by 30% and there's massive unrest in the country from the youth. In parts of the country, they don't even accept the local currency no more. Bitcoin and cryptocurrency are becoming more and more popular there because the sanctions have crippled the country. I have friends and family who actually live there and hear from them all the time. I recommend you to check out this guys vlogs when he was in Iran to get an idea how shitty life is thereafter the sanctions (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXulruMI7BHj3kGyosNa0jA) . People cant pay for basic necessities because of rapid inflation. If you think Iran won't swallow their ego to make a deal then you're not aware of Iranian politics. Im a Klobuchar supporter and refuse to vote for Trump so dont get me twisted here. Im not attempting to give Trump all the credit and my original post may be confusing but there's NO way Iran doesn't hit a US target if they really wanted too. NONE of this makes ANY sense if you understand how ballistic missiles actually work. Right after the attack happened Iranian leaders were already going on tv claiming they were not going to retaliate next and it was up to the Americans to dictate the next step. Why the fk would they say this wouthout even knowing what the damages were from their strikes?
The Iranian top officials are obviously trying to give Trump an off ramp, but people forget this is still a very very divided country politically, and there are hard liners that will not accept this attack as an appropriate response to the assassination. The Iranian leadership wants it to be the end, but it won't be unless Trump gets back in the Iran nuclear deal, and agrees to pull troops out of Iraq.... which would create a path for the IRGC General to stop the proxies from attacking. Trump will not get back in the existing deal, and there's no way the hard liners in the US (Pompeo, Pence, etc.) will let Trump pull out of Iraq. The best case scenario for the US now will be a relative quiet period where we can buy time until a new President is elected in November where we can have a coherent middle east policy to follow, get the Nuclear deal back in place, pull a good amount of troops out of the middle east (Afghanistan mostly), and do everything we can to help the Iraqi government stabilize so we can leave the middle east for good.
Iran has went through harsh sanctions like this for decades on end and it didn't budge them. There are more "Death to America" chants today then there were right after the Iran Nuclear deal was implemented. There is less willingness to work with America now than there was before the deal was torn apart. Sanctions aren't going to change that. Iran's regime will direct the Iranian population's suffering and anger over the sanctions and economic conditions towards America because unfortunately, Trump has given the Iranian regime strong very well reasoned salient talking points on why negotiating with Trump is a **** idea. Trump holds no leverage here with sanctions because Iranians also know that American presidents have temporary terms. No reason why they believe they should reward Trump for bad behavior as they percieve.
Yes, after the dust settled, it was obvious that the Iranians were actually responding in a way that was providing a path for de-escalation. Truly signaled they want nothing to do with a straight up war with the US. That is good news. However I can already see people's heads spinning that "maybe Trump did have a plan", or that his mad man approach to foreign policy is actually smart. IT IS NOT. It's incredibly stupid and even if Trump gets his way, is there anyone dumb enough to believe that the end result is really that much of a better deal than Obama had? Even if it's marginally better in the end, was the risk worth it? To me, it's not. Trump is not a genius negotiator. He's a ego driven jackass who will risk American lives for his own political gain every day of the week.
I agree Iran is in very bad shape and riven by internal dissension. That was more reason not to do this. Never get in the way of your enemy self-destructing. What history has shown though is that when an outside power, and one that is already distrusted, intervenes that tends to unite a country. What this strike has done is given the Ayatollah regime more validation that they all of their ills really are from outside and not from their own mismanagement. Further given that Trump tweeted a big ass American flag following this it should be very clear to most Iranians this wasn't meant to help the Iranian dissident and protest movement. Iran's MO has rarely been direct attacks and the Iranians are smart enough to know that a direct confrontation with the US will be very costly. Soleimani himself was a master of proxy war and my guess is that this strike was only meant to show that the regime is willing to do something but it was most likely symbolic. My own speculation is that they are working through proxy groups and other unconventional means to hit back. That type of attack takes a long time and by definition isn't out in the open.
You're aware that while those sanctions were imposed in the early century they had negative GDP growth and an unstable currency. That is why a moderate president was elected because people were sick of being poor. The average Iranian I can promise you does not give two ***** about doing bad to USA and just wants a better life for themselves. Iranian are very emotional people and they will get over Solemani's death real quick if a deal was to come into place.
This isn't about doing "bad stuff to the USA". This is about leverage and pragmatism. The Iranian people see no reason to trust Trump in negotiations and would rather wait out his term or terms before discussing a new deal. In geopolitics you don't reward for bad behavior because it incentivizes bad behavior. When Trump reneged on the Nuclear deal for no reason other than for his own personal political gain, the Iranians are not going to reward that behavior because it encourages said bad behavior. Nation-states have to puff up their chests occasionally to express to the world that they aren't pushovers. Iranians see negotiating with Trump after all he has done as a pushover move. Again, Iranians know that US presidents have temporary terms. They have absolutely zero incentive to work with the current one who has started us down this fall into the rabbit hole of escalation.
Regardless of whether there is short term deescalation or not, to claim there will be no consequences. If US foreign policy in the Middle East has shown us anything, no one will know the complete consequences for years. Also there is questions about whether the plane crash that killed over 170 people was shot down in Iran. It may turnout that the attack forces long term peace but no one will know for years. It is why the positions held by Rand Paul and Bernie Sanders on foreign interference has become so attractive to many people.
People all over the world just want a better life for themselves. That is certainly the case in the Middle East. There are obviously zealots and they tend to be very loud, but they are not the majority of Iranians or people in the Middle East. The moderates and liberals tend to not voice their opinions publicly because of retribution and because it isn't worth the possible consequences. The majority of the people in Iraq and many Iranians are not all that heart broken over the death of Solemani. People confuse respect for power with liking someone. In the West we think these are the same thing, they are not in the Middle East. I can say that the people I know that live in Iraq (not Iran) are not happy that the USA has decided to use their country as a playground for it's problems with Iran. At the same time, they do not want Iran having more influence in Iraq. Their view of the USA and politics in the region is complicated. They are easy to forgive because they are used to violence.... but they also have been badly wronged by every player involved. Also there are so many tribes and areas that opinions vary widely. The common people just want security and a better life.
I tend to agree with this with two caveats. First it will depend on whether the Iranians believe that Trump will win re-election and second it depends on how confident the existing government is that they can stay in power while trying to wait out the USA and the President. The Iranians could attempt to leverage this, by reaching a 12th hour deal with Trump and actually get a BETTER deal than Obama gave them. Trump gets to claim victory and use it for purposes of the election and the Iranians get more of what they want.
Good points.... The problem is America really has no credibility in the Far East... One minute we are backing this country and then the next minute we are backing this country... While the whole time we are just trying to gain something with no true loyalty at all... T_Man
LOL Trump already talking about a new deal being made. This was so obvious this was happening. I knew this was happening behind the scenes. Politics as usual. I wouldn't be surprised if another agreement is already in place. This was all orchestrated from the beginning. They already are working with US officials on a new deal. I can almost bet you any amount of money that such an agreement will be signed before November.
That is true and it is the largest criticism that I have with US foreign policy. The rest of the world does not know what to expect. Some of that is that we have elections so often for President, and the parties often have very different opinions on what foreign policy should be.
President Trump says there were no casualties from Iran's tepid retaliatory response and that 'Iran appears to be standing down'. As long as they are, so are we. Trump says no U.S. casualties, Iran appears to be standing down U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday there were no American casualties in the Iranian strikes on military bases housing U.S. troops in Iraq and that Tehran appeared to be standing down. “No Americans were harmed in last night’s attack by the Iranian regime. We suffered no casualties,” Trump said in a White House address. “Our great American forces are prepared for anything. Iran appears to be standing down.”
