Here is the appearance of things. 1) We are up against the tax threshold for 2020. I think we go over for the right player. But we are somewhat handcuffed at adding a whole lot of payroll unless we unload some (Reddick?). 2) JV, Altuve, Greinke and Springer occupy just over 50% of our entire payroll for 2020 as things are right now. We HAVE to find cheap players to fill voids. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/houston-astros/payroll/ 3) If the WS taught (reminded) us of anything, its that teams with top pitching usually win. While on the surface, it looked like we lost the WS because of the offense, I hope we double down on pitching for 2020. 4) We have to look at who is on the verge of moving into a full ML role of those players that were on the bubble. Guys like Whitley, Tucker, James, Urquidy. Obviously, the more from this group that can contribute, the less we have to spend via FA and trades. Last year, of all the hopefuls, maybe Urquidy stands out (arguably) as the only one who made that transition and even then not until the playoffs. I am hoping a rather bleak year in this regard (2019) is followed by a good one (2020).
Why some of y’all are selling short on Greinke? You saw what he did for us since becoming as Astros. Game 7 is who I expected him to be and hopefully get longer leash from AJ next year. He would be an ACE on most team. He’s not Cole or JV this year but no else is either in the AL. JV will be 1A and Greinke should be our 1B next year. He could be our 20 games winner next year. His defense and ability to induce DP can get him out of a lot of trouble. I do think we should get a #3 to go along with LMJ and Urquidy while hoping Whitley, Javier and maybe Abreu to step up when needed.
One thing 2019 didn’t deliver that 2020 must do a better job of is establishing new core players. 2019 saw Alvarez establish himself, but if the window is going to continue past 2021, Tucker, Whitley, and 2-3 other guys (Urquidy? Abreu? Toro?) need to establish themselves.
The last part is especially true, IMO. The key to carrying the stars at the top of the payroll is to have contributions from younger (i.e. cheaper) players. You can afford JV and Greinke at $60+MM/year combined if you have Whitley and Urquidy holding down the back end of the rotation making less than $500k combined. Same with Alvarez and Tucker. Definitely need to find a way to get the young, promising, cheap arms to develop and contribute to the big league club.
Urquidy and Whitley in the rotation. Abreu, James, and Martes in the pen. Toro and Straw on the bench. Tucker and Alvarez in the everyday lineup. That’s more than 1/3 of the roster on minimum salaries and each of those guys has a chance to be plus in their role.
So you think Cole would have taken a short 2 year extension at age 29? Hardly. Without the Verlander deal, we are heading into 2020 without either player.
On the surface that’s a bummer. He seemed like a great piece of the puzzle for acquiring and developing international talent. I saw he was leaving a few days ago but assumed he was getting hired away to be an AGM somewhere. Odd if he is being let go.
I hope we bring Chirinos back and find a way to dump Reddick and possibly even Yuli's salary to use on pitching. I'm not opposed to using it on bullpen help either - Harris was the only truly reliable arm we had in the playoffs and that burnt us. Regardless even if we don't dump Reddick, if I see his name in the lineup opening day I'm going to have a meltdown.
Chirinios is probably going to get multiple offers. The catching market is pretty thin after Grandal. I think the Astros would like to have him back but at the right price. Luhnow tried to move Reddick last offseason. Teams wanted the Astros to eat half his salary. I'm sure they will try to move him again but it would cost prospects to get rid of all his salary. I don't see any chance they move Gurriel.
It’s really hard to predict Houston’s payroll flexibility. I never thought they’d sniff the luxury tax threshold and here they are on the cusp, and Luhnow is still saying payroll will go up. And given the penalties for going over the tax aren’t particularly severe, who knows how high it’ll go. I suspect it’s a moving target, and that Houston will spend whatever they think will bring back a good value, within limits. I do think Reddick and Sanchez will be removed from the payroll, with Devenski and Biagini also possibly being non-tendered, so that gives them $10-20M to work with even if they don’t want to go over the tax. But that likely won’t be enough to fill all of their holes via free agency.
Ill make a tipjar with you or anyone on this board that theres NO way we go over the luxury tax this off season. If we had won the World Series then I think theres a decent probability but as it currently no way he pony's up especially after that performance. Whether you like it or not attendance will be down next year and a lot of fans are frustrated at their performance in the World Series.
CBS sports had Astros as potential suitors for the following players. Any interest? Zack Wheeler Dallas Keuchel Dellin Betances Jake Odorizzi Kyle Gibson Alex Avila Drew Pomeranz Tanner Roark Michael Pineda Ivan Nova Also had Harris and Chirinos listed. Here's the link if anyone wants to read what they have to say for each player. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cb...t-cole-among-top-names-to-hit-the-market/amp/
Nothing I've read about Whitley in the last few months tells me he's remotely close to the major league roster.
