Good thread for me to post that I won my preseason WS matchup bet! I had $25 on WAS/HOU to meet at 30:1 odds, payout of $750...I ended up hedging and won $500!
The Nats are very very good. They're second in the NL in runs scored and they're really good at 2-out scoring. I'm really hoping Pressly can go and be effective.
I agree I’m just saying we will likely be favored in every game in the series and it will present opportunities for me to reduce my potential loss if I really feel like we aren’t going to pull through. Obviously dangerous and could result in losing even more though... Edit: I also hedge just as much on teasers as parleys if not more.
I'm hoping Astros come out hitting, I was hoping to see the slump look better as the Yankees series progressed... so hopefully this series they bat a lot better. I'm so happy there's not a game 7 against the Yankees, so Cole is ready for game 1. Hopefully that'll help, that Rays series was rough.
Nice! I was in Vegas back when Astros were 6-1 early in season to win the WS but only put $50 on them...I wasn’t running so hot that trip lol
Verlander would be on regular rest game 2? In my mind you go Cole, JV and then Greinke game 3. Greinke going 3 will benefit him in several ways: 1) he gets to face their pitcher which is a huge help for a guy like Greinke and 2) he’s one of the best hitting pitchers in the MLB. Greinke is a NL type pitcher at this point in his career - I think he will have a really good chance to succeed against them.
Y’all realize it’s not supposed to be easy to score in the playoffs right? This isn’t the regular season where you’re playing teams like the Orioles and even the good teams you face you usually don’t see ONLY their best pitchers... The Rays had the best ERA in the AL this season and they played in a division with two of the top offensives in baseball...
Did you watch the wild card game against the Brewers? The one where the RF whiffed on a ground ball in the 8th inning when the Nats were LOSING? Or the Dodgers series where the Dodgers were leading by 2 going in the 8th during game 5 but Dave Roberts showed the world once again how bad of a manager he is (everyone who has issues with Hinch...be thankful that guy isn’t our manager)? The Nats have had a lucky ride so far and sweeping the Cards isn’t impressive to me - The Cards wouldn’t have come close to making the playoffs in the AL. I’m not saying the Nats are some joke or that we are 100% going to win but come on guys they are probably the weakest team we’ve faced in the playoffs...at best IMO they’re on par with the Rays.
Oh absolutely, playoff ball is a lot different. I was honestly a bit more worried on the Rays series, I just meant it'll be nice that the Astros will be able to start Cole Game 1 of the WS instead of using him in game 7 (today etc. if it were played). Especially since every advantage is worth it in a 7 game series. I also felt some of the guys were hitting low, even for a playoff series, especially since the Yankees bullpen strategy is different. They don't have the Verlander/Cole and even Greinke luxury with the way they had to rotate pitchers. Like some Yankee fans thinking it was over after game 1, they clearly forgot about Verlander and Cole. And game 2 I think helped expose the Yankees bullpen (there's probably better articles but here's an example) : https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/14/sports/baseball/yankees-astro-alcs.html Anyway tl;dr - I think since the Nats are running a more conventional bullpen it'll be a lot better to have the ability to have Cole start game 1
I agree with you, I'm obviously biased but I'm definitely feeling better after the Astros won the AL. And the Cards were definitely not the team the Astros used to have to face in the NL, so I don't think it really proved anything for the Nats. I don't expect some cakewalk but I seriously believe Astros win this, and I expect it to be a bit easier than the 2017 run, especially with no Dodgers (no matter how bad their manager is, Def agree there too), I think the Dodgers would have been a harder team to face.
That night the Rays beat the As I remember seeing a tweet from I believe Fangraphs stating that our odds to win the WS dropped from 34% to 30% because it was the Rays we got matched up with...that team was a tough out and we're fortunate Glasnow and Snell were working their way back from injuries. It's always nerve racking to face a team that has a bunch of young talented players with nothing to lose. And while the Nationals are young and you could try to make that same case they have nothing to lose either, they rely on many players (e.g. Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin, Zimmerman, etc.) who might see this as their last chance to win a ring.
Agree with this 100% - we should all be thankful Dave Roberts decided to let Kershaw not only give up one HR in relief in the 8th but another one right after it to tie the game. I didn't feel great about us against LA if that was the match up...it's bad logic but I felt like losing three world series in a row with a team that talented just wasn't going to happen.
Absolutely right, the Rays were a much tougher match up, I remember seeing something like this stated before the series started between the Astros/Rays. Definitely would have preferred the A's
Definitely agree with you 100% on this too. Facing the Dodgers for their 3rd straight WS appearance, man... Even with their bad management, that definitely would not make me feel great either.
@Nick So when a team comes off a win with 2 day rest vs someone who’s off a week... who benefits? Do the Astros prepare on the fly ? Or have they been studying these hitters pitchers?
According to ESPN, the Astros are the biggest World Series favorites since the Red Sox in 2007. They swept the Rockies. I remember that crazy run the Rockies had that October, similar in some ways to the Nationals, but I think Washington has a far better pitching staff than they did.
The value was Astros -110 to win the AL. They were also -104 before game 5 of the Rays game. I made roughly 6k off those bets. Easy money. Only degenerates are betting on such shitty value of -220.
