Right and the contract extensions for Altuve, Verlander, Bregman and Pressly all kick in..... that is $50,000,000 more than last year. So that leaves: C, a #2 and #3 starter, 4 bullpen arms needing to be replaced and the arbitration increases of the other guys off set the money from Miley, Chirinos, Cole, McHugh, Smith, Rondon and Harris not being on the roster. If we are to avoid the tax (which the owner has always held to be the case); we are looking at a payroll of around $170,000,000 or an increase of $13,000,000 over last year without replacing ANY of our free agents...... the competitive balance tax is estimated to be at $208,000. So ASSUMING that Crane pays up to the tax level, we could have up to $38,000,000 to replace C, #2, #3, 4 set up men.... That is a best case scenario and that will be very difficult to do. I'm sure the Astros would love to move Reddick and his $13,000,000 contract but that will be very difficult without including prospects.
His numbers are absolutely that of a front end starter. His health is not - but that (likely) has nothing to do with the Astros' development of him.
Can't call him an ace or a no. 1, but 100 innings of LMJ is generally worth more than all, but about 30-40 SPs. That would make him as a top end No. 3, while better than most No. 2's when he pitches. This is provided he bounces back from his injury well.
Ehh... I think he has the potential to be a #2 starter but I cannot call someone a #2 starter when they pitch so few innings. I would feel comfortable with him as a #2 slotting in behind Verlander and Cole....... but I sure wouldn't feel comfortable with him slotting in behind Verlander with so many other holes in the rotation. We will need to watch as see what they do.... if they add someone like Syndergaard or Greinke, then you can plug in McCullers and another reclamation type signing and likely keep on winning.
I may be a Pollyanna but I still see a farm that can provide a #5 starter and 2-3 solid bullpen arms, plus be able to provide prospects to trade for a #2-3 starter. Of course I thought that this past offseason and 5 guys (McHugh, Whitley, Martin, Framber, Cionel) all were unable to be viable starters either due to injury or underperforming. But I still think that is mostly bad luck and that the FO’s logic and strategy are sound. My expectation is they will trade for a starter and a reliever this deadline who have additional years of control remaining, meaning they’ll enter the offseason shopping for a catcher and having 3-4 openings on the pitching staff for guys to compete for in spring. I am still hopeful they won’t trade Tucker but as long as they get fair value I’m cool with it. One good thing is that they still have a ton of near-ready arms (including those that busted this season) that are still young and have good chances to come back and at least help shore up the bullpen next season: Whitley Martes Urquidy Perez Armenteros Framber Deetz Sneed Bielak Hartman Javier Bailey Emanuel Paredes Ferrell Abreu Martin (2nd half of the season) Bukauskas Ivey Donato Torres Collado Pinales Scrubb You can’t convince me there’s not 3-4 solid 2020 arms in that group.
His career FIP is 3.24 and he averages 10.1 Ks per 9 innings. He's a front end starter that unfortunately can't stay healthy. Martes was a prospect *because* of his development here (he was an afterthought throw-in in the Cosart deal). Appel you can pin on them - but he also didn't seem to have the proper mental make-up. Whitley is 21 years old - let's be careful not to dismiss what was - through their development - the top pitching prospect in all of baseball before a pretty tumultuous offseason. The Astros have developed two everyday players - and both were top 2 picks. You could give them credit for Marisnick, I suppose, and possibly Alvarez but beyond that... Are we skeptical of their ability to develop everyday players or is it... just really, really hard? You're somewhat bound by the hand you're dealt. They've selected four pitchers in the first round under Luhnow: Aiken went all Aiken on them; Appel flamed out; Whitley and Bukauskas are 21 and 22 and still top-line prospects. They've managed to squeeze innings out of prospects and have a pretty stellar track record of developing MLB pitchers. I think they're OK when it comes to their development, and my guess is their average is probably on par with most organizations.
The discussion isn't about LMJ's health; it's whether the Astros have ever developed a front-end starter. LMJ is, by the numbers, absolutely, positively a front end starter. He just can't stay healthy, which does't have anything to do with the Astros' development of him.
I'm not really pinning any percentage of blame on the Astros for the failings of the Astros top end pitching prospects. There are many things that go into the equation. I was simply saying I don't consider a guy that has never pitched more than 130 innings in a season, and has had an era of around 4 the last few years, a front line pitcher. the ability is there though.
Pretty good problem to have....a few years back I just couldn't see us siting here nitpicking developing a FES with a WS title under our belt...my how things have changed. In Luhnow I Trust
Looks like another significant price increased for next year season tickets. Probably not as much as last year increased but prices that I’m willing to pay for being a contender.
Been tied up on calls today but I had a chance to watch all the shows so far on MLB network and just wanted to post a few thoughts from today: These shows are dominated by New York fans in the media that do have some connections to the Yankees. I thought it was very interesting that they were pointing out how Thor is most likely heading to the Astros. Mets will not trade him to the Yankees at all. Mets apparently want Tucker or Alvarez and they are hellbent on winning this trade due to their failure with Diaz and Cano. The other team that could trade for Thor would be the Padres but I just don't see it with them being out 7 games. Yankees are searching hard to get a game 1 starter. Those guys are under a lot of pressure to make a deal but it seems it's going to cost them a lot. @Nook dropped a lot of info earlier but I have to agree with him. This team financially is going to be strapped come next season. They do not have a lot of options for starting SP and relievers. Tucker is the bullet that Luhnow has right now and I think this is where you have to fire it to get you someone with a few years under control. Last thing that came up last night on MLB network. Although I know others have hinted at this before on this forum, "insiders" that were on the show last night stated they believe Cole ends up with the Angels next year.
Oh I didn’t know that. Not a huge move. They really should sell all their good players or else be stuck in mediocrity for a long time.
Astros are 12th in rookie fWAR among pitchers in last 5 years. 10th in ERA. 3rd in FIP. The Astros aren't good at developing pitchers because it is tough to develop pitchers, and they've had some bad luck/bad picks.
