I'm convinced this is who he is. He may go through a slump like any ball player but pitchers aren't going to figure him out.
Generally, thresholds of 50, 200, and 600 PA are good milestones. Once a player has 600 PA in the majors, that is usually very close to who they will be. Alvarez is really young so I think we can be more optimistic, meaning that at 200 or 600 PA we can assume he will be at least as good as he’s been to those points.
What gives me hope is that this is who he's been at every level. He won't be 1.200 OPS obviously, but there is no period in his entire history when he wasn't a great hitter, and nothing in the way he's hitting that suggests a fluke (no bloop hits, hitting mistakes and good pitches, walking a lot, high avg exit velocity, all fields, etc.). If he settles in at less than .900 OPS I would be very surprised.
Alvarez is striking out 26% of his PA and his numbers are propped up by a BaBIP over .400 and an insane ISO over .400. Both of those will come down dramatically over time. I think we can safely predict he will be an excellent hitter, with something like a wRC+ around 130. That’s a star hitter, similar to Nelson Cruz the last couple of years. Whether he can be a Hall of Fame Level hitter remains to be seen.
They will come down, but the BaBIP is partly a result of making extremely hard contact. I’m taking the over on 130.
Your lack of faith is disturbing. Just kidding. It is amazing how good he’s looked, that when someone says- look- it’s a guarantee he’s going to be an all star caliber type bat but maybe not a HOF caliber best and people laugh.
There's anything but BABIP "luck" being employed here.... I'm sure you've seen some of these balls he's hitting. What will change is that pitchers are going to eventually stop challenging him, and his walk numbers will go up (with the K/PA going down).
There is a big difference between “I guarantee” and “my money is on ...”. There are repeat all-stars who come up every year and my money is on Alvarez being one of them. He’s never been anything less than a great hitter at any level and other than an affected worldly cynicism, there is no reason to think he’ll be anything less than a great hitter in the MLB. If I put the over-under on ASGs at 4.5, what are you taking?
He will sustain I higher than normal BABIP (~.350) because of how hard he hits and the quality of his contact but no way he keeps it over .400.
Probably over. Biggest issue will be if he has an established position. If he does his bat will be enough to get him in on the regular.
Yordan not only mashes, but he does so with runners on. His RBI pace is more impressive than his HR. 23 games projected 162 .... 9 HR = 63.39 29 RBI = 204.26 Two hundred is unprecedented.
Jamey Newberg (@NewbergReport) Tweeted: It’s hard not to conclude, under the circumstances, that Houston didn’t just have LA sign Alvarez for them since they couldn’t spend more than 300k on a J2 player themselves. (Alvarez signed for $2 million.) Bent, it not broken. https://t.co/n5ia6O4Yga Lol.... this guy
Here is my most heartfelt evaluation of Alvarez. When he bats I dont miss it regardless of any home situation going on. Now, when White steps into the box, that's when I make my trip downstairs, to mix my next cocktail.
