Well, it's hurricane season...again and it appears we have our first possible threat to the area this season. The latest computer models have made a dramatic shift west overnight and we may have a tropical storm in the central gulf by mid week. This is still one model run but we already know how much better these models are than they used to be especially the "euro". There isn't much to this thing as it is still over land but is supposed to begin developing once it hits the waters of the NE Gulf. Stay tuned everyone.
That's not how this works. The low is currently over Georgia. It is drifting south towards the NE Gulf. It's expected to develop once it hits the water and head West towards Louisiana/Tx. Conditions in the gulf are ripe with high water temps and low shear.
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A trough of low pressure located over central Georgia is forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where a broad area of low pressure is expected to form on Wednesday. Environmental and ocean conditions are forecast to be conducive for development and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week while the low moves slowly westward over northern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For more information about the rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. Interests along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas coast to the western Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Latest Euro is out. Nearly identical to last night's run except a very tiny shift Eastward closer to LA border and slightly stronger.
We will take all most of your water. We had a ton of rain in the fall/winter/spring, but it's summertime, it's getting dry, send it all up here, we can hack it. Please?
An update from Levi Cowan explaining in detail the differences in the GFS and Euro models. Great stuff as usual from Levi.
Good news for us. Overnight some the models shifted further east into central Louisiana including the Euro. The GFS shifted west to Texas but I think these days most people trust the euro over the GFS. We should know more once we have a surface low to track over the gulf.
