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Negative Partisanship predicts Trump is toast in 2020

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by Amiga, Jul 2, 2019.

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  1. pgabriel

    pgabriel Educated Negro

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    You still don't get it. People made up their minds on Hilary 25 years ago.

    They limited there possible votes. You at least have to start with a clean slate.

    What Democrats have to worry about is the economy continuing to stay steady
     
    #21 pgabriel, Jul 2, 2019
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  2. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    Why would Democrats want the economy to continue having record levels of consumer debt and 60% of the population needing to finance to afford a 1000 dollar emergency?
     
    #22 fchowd0311, Jul 2, 2019
  3. pgabriel

    pgabriel Educated Negro

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    All that matters is rhe unemployment rate to those midwest white Reagan Democrats that need to be flipped
     
    #23 pgabriel, Jul 2, 2019
  4. pgabriel

    pgabriel Educated Negro

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    Another thing that Democrats should not count on is rage against whats happening on the border.
     
    #24 pgabriel, Jul 2, 2019
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  5. Astrodome

    Astrodome Member

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    Interesting analysis no doubt. I disagree that trump's win was like being dealt a royal flush in poker. Maybe drawing a straight.

    Whoever wins i will give the benefit of the doubt and hope they succeed. I am a likely trump voter. If a dem or socialist win i will hope he or she has great success. Some of the ideas i am seeing floated are going to be risky.

    You guys should be prideful that you have a diverse and big group of candidates. Hopefully the cream rises and we choose the best person for the job. It should be an interesting year and a half. Good luck to all!
     
    #25 Astrodome, Jul 2, 2019
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  6. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    The cream is not the only thing that rises to the top.
     
    #26 MojoMan, Jul 2, 2019
  7. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    So dust systemic problems under the rug to appease Reagan supporters?

    How about no.
     
    #27 fchowd0311, Jul 2, 2019
  8. Amiga

    Amiga Member

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    Not a strategy. It’s a model that predict Trump is toasted. We'll see if the model is correct soon enough.
     
    #28 Amiga, Jul 2, 2019
  9. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    I recall the exact same strategy be embraced in 2016 by the Democrat left, with the same exact results being predicted by the same so-called "experts". LOL.
     
    #29 MojoMan, Jul 2, 2019
  10. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    The experts were pretty damn accurate. Hillary won the popular vote by a pretty significant margin and Trump squeaked by in wins in swing states where the total net difference in votes in those key swing states was around 70,000 votes. So out of 130 million votes, about 70,000 swung the electoral college towards Trump. The media especially data driven mathematical models from entities like 538 had Trump with a 15% probability of winning the election and given how narrow of a margin Trump won by, they were pretty spot on.

    Honestly I'm content with math illiterate Trump supporters believing that Trump won the election by a wide margin. That benefits the Democrat candidate.
     
    #30 fchowd0311, Jul 2, 2019
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  11. Amiga

    Amiga Member

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    First, model is not a strategy. I don't know why you are insisting on using that word, unless you don't understand what it means.

    Second, polling were accurate to historic standard, and was in fact better nationally. State level was a bit more iffy.

    Third, you are probably referring to prediction by major news network and papers that were based off polling data. That's their own prediction and who knows how they modeled it, but it was indeed based on polling data, which again was historically accurate. You can said their model sux.

    This is a new model that doesn't rely on polls, but on voter turnout, which she predicted would soar in the 2018 midterm. She made the 2018 midterm prediction 4M before the midterm and came out pretty spot on.

    A key sentence: "The complacent electorate of 2016, who were convinced Trump would never be president, has been replaced with the terrified electorate of 2020, who are convinced he’s the Terminator and can’t be stopped. Under my model, that distinction is not only important, it is everything."
     
    #31 Amiga, Jul 2, 2019
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  12. RocketsLegend

    RocketsLegend Member

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    I don't think Trump cares enough about reelection to start a war in Iran
     
    #32 RocketsLegend, Jul 2, 2019
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  13. Rashmon

    Rashmon Member

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    Interesting that someone who believes they are so politically astute can be such a sycophant for the least capable president in the history of our nation. Kind of negates any opinion you may spew.
     
    #33 Rashmon, Jul 2, 2019
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  14. Nook

    Nook Member

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    The democrats are on course to blow the 2020 election.

    Having candidates say they are going to raise taxes on the middle class is not a winning proposition.

    Having candidates more concerned about the welfare and rights of people attempting to enter the USA at the border is not a way to win over moderates and blue collar voters.
     
    #34 Nook, Jul 2, 2019
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  15. Nook

    Nook Member

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    No, he is just a low IQ fool. It isn’t Trump specific.
     
    #35 Nook, Jul 2, 2019
  16. jo mama

    jo mama Member

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    [​IMG]
     
    #36 jo mama, Jul 2, 2019
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  17. JayGoogle

    JayGoogle Member

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    I do have to wonder why it feels like Democratic candidates must be told to come to the center but Republican candidates get to go as far right as they possibly can.

    I think there is a good argument that a more moderate like Biden just isn't going to get the democratic base excited enough to vote, while he may get more moderate votes, will that be enough without the base? Whoever the candidate is will have to get behind a big idea that people can get excited for. Whether that is healthcare for all or cheaper college or whatever the case, it can't just be "Pick me and we'll go back to the status quo."

    That's why people elected Obama and that's why people elected Trump. Both ran on overturning Washington and bringing change and really that's who people want and I feel like people will continue to vote for change until they finally get someone to bring that change they hope for.

    I think Warren is a really good candidate, I think she can win moderates, but I think more importantly that she will get the base out to vote and excited and hopeful.

    That's why Trump won, he told the conservatives of the country that he would give them their country back, that he would build walls and protect 'religious' rights and that he would bring America back to the good old days...Make it Great Again...while Clinton meanwhile ran on simply being a Democrat.

    Whoever wins the primary has to bring something new to the table.
     
    #37 JayGoogle, Jul 2, 2019
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  18. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    I wonder if posters like @MojoMan subconsciously have higher standards for Democrat voters. Donald Trump was chosen out of a field of 17... SEVENTEEN other RNC candidates, almost all of whom were relatively centrist to Trump in their rhetoric.
     
    #38 fchowd0311, Jul 3, 2019
  19. Amiga

    Amiga Member

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    Bitecofer argues that it doesn't matter. It's all about fear of the guy sitting in the white house. Strangely, or not really, I'm less certain of my earlier stance which is similar to what you post above. That what you need is ideas that drive turn out. I think it's more likely a don't care. There is already enough of Trump to drive huge turn out. It really doesn't matter what candidates you pick, what position they support, it's all about getting Trump out. That's the main overriding factor. And that's should be enough even if you alienate the center or so-called independent, which Bitecofer argue is and was not the largest factor in past elections. Negative partisanship was the main driving factor and is even more so now.

    Given that the left turnout will be large whatever the candidate positions and ideas (unless you get a left Roy Moore), the better move and the safer move is to not alienate the center. It's extra cushion in case of some unforeseen events (or really, some expected unexpected last min dirty tactics) that might be just enough to cause a Trump victory. Another royal flush, or drawing a straight.

    So, I was previously more in-line with go left and drive energy into the base. I'm still on that train, but more toward play it a bit safer, or don't go so far left.
     
    #39 Amiga, Jul 3, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2019
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  20. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Member

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    What got trump elected were republicans voting in mass for trump because he had the "R" next to his name in 2016. The same will result in trump winning again in 2020. Which candidate the Democrats run will not make much of a difference in that calculus.
     
    #40 NewRoxFan, Jul 3, 2019
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