To be clear I’m not necessarily advocating trading him. I brought up the idea because people keep saying how we can’t afford this or that and my point was we can find room to sign Cole...even if it’s outside the box ideas. And with that logic that assumes Correa is going to get back to MVP level play and make enough in arbitration to hurt us tax wise. If he continues to get hurt it doesn’t matter anyway.
He’s at $12M. Which to your point Cole is at $13M so it’s not like we’re offering a FA $30M/year...we’re going from $13 to $30M.
If he’s getting that much during arbitration, it means he’s doing a helluva lot to help this team win baseball games.
Yep, which is what I said. Right now Cole is doing a helluva lot to win us games while Correa is hurt again...I’d rather pay Cole now and if that causes us to be so cash poor as many here are suggesting, we can figure out what to do later on. All I’m saying is that’s at least an option if we were to pay Cole and needed salary relief down the road. What a lot of people here aren’t understanding is if Lunhow looks at our pitching situation and decides he’s not comfortable moving forward with what we have, I think they’ll pony up and spend. The worst case scenario is letting him walk, saving maybe about $15M in salaries but potentially ending our window to win another WS. I can guarantee any owner would spend an additional $15M/yr if it meant the difference between potentially winning the WS and being a first round exit every year.
Guaranteed 121.2M: Verlander 33 Altuve 29 Brantley 16 Bregman 13 Reddick 13 Pressly 8.8 Gurriel 8.4 Arb 48.1M: Springer 15 Correa 9 Osuna 9 Peacock 4 McCullers 4.1 Marisnick 3 Diaz 2 Devenski 2 That’s 169.3. Plus another 5-10m in pre-arb.
2020 payroll Verlander 33 Brantley 16 Reddick 13 Yuli 8.4 (9.5 AAV) Altuve 26 (23.35 AAV) he received signing bonuses that lowered his salary and aav going forward Bregman 13 (20 AAV) this could be less AAV since he got a signing bonus but details are sketchy Devenski 2.625 (team option) Pressly 8.75 Springer 20 (arbitration estimate) Betts went from 10.5 to 20 this year after MVP season and only in year 2 of arb Correa 9 (arbitration estimate) Osuna 9 (aribtration estimate) Marisnick 3 (arbitration estimate) McCullers 5.75 (arbitration estimate) Peacock 5 (arbitration estimate) Diaz 3 (arbitration estimate) Stassi 1 (arbitration estimate) That's about 177 million in real dollars and about 182ish in AAV for luxury tax purposes. Then add the rest of pre arb guys like James, Yordan, Straw, etc. That is estimated at about 7-8 million for all the guys that move up and down from the minors to the majors and pre arb guys getting paid while on the IL, etc. Also, for luxury tax purposes you have to add the ammenities the players receive like hotel stays, food, etc. That is estimate is 14-15 million. That puts the payroll at around 206 million for luxury tax purposes without filling any of our holes with Chirinos, Rondon, McHugh, Smith, Cole, and Miley leaving.
Why I'm a firm believer winning the World Series this year is so important. It will determine which avenue this team will go. Yuli or Reddick will be moved...
Totally, and next year will be when things start to get more difficult with regards to the roster and pay raises. As for the person who says Yuli won't be moved because of "versatility and clubhouse implications," reminder that Diaz is just as versatile (and a better defender at 2B/3B/SS), has better numbers, will cost less, and is about 6 years younger. Gurriel and Reddick (as much as they've meant to us in the past) should absolutely be moved this offseason to free up some $$$ and help us out. Having our core guys at arb/pre arb salaries was nice, but keeping the group together and staying competitive is a tough challenge.
Perhaps. But all of last year, he didn't give up more than 4 ER in any start. At roughly the halfway point, he has already had two such outings. http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/gamelog/_/id/32081/year/2018
Fair... I just think he’s closer to the pitcher that won yesterday than the guy who allowed a bad start to inflate his ERA.
I agree with that. My point was directed at the statement that he is as good as last year and/or deserving of a mega-deal. For the later, that is arguable. As for the former, he has been a bit less consistent than last year IMO. But generally speaking, I am glad he is around and most of the time, effective as well.
I stand corrected - forgot about LMJ and in my back of the napkin math I didn’t think Osuna and Correa would combine for nearly $20 but you’re probably right (I did no research). Personally, I would dump Reddick (~$8M savings), trade Marisnick (yes I know he’s been good and everyone loves him but we have plenty of OF) and show Devo the door. That frees up ~$13M...even if we don’t resign Cole I would rather use that money on another SP.
Generally agree with most of your opinions and respect you as a poster...but come on did you really need to open the thread (clearly you knew was it was about) just so you could spit off one sentence of sarcasm? It’s an off day in the dog days of summer and the Rockets boards are a mess right now after the Butler debacle - not much else to talk about unless you want to go read a bunch of trade ideas that won't ever happen (shout out to all of the Realmuto trade threads/suggestions last year). And I don't mean that in a rude way either - there's just not much going on right now. Anyhow, our thinking right now about how we want to allocate our spending going forward (i.e. should we sign Cole and find ways to shed salary/go real cheap at positions like C and 1B moving forward) absolutely will play a part in our decisions at the trade deadline (i.e. do we give up the prospects for Stroman?).
I’d rather trade Reddick for an overpaid BoR SP to replace Miley. Somebody like Leake or Samardzija. Otherwise they should include a prospect to get the other team to take on the full salary. Devenski and Marisnick have value and unless a team really likes them and is willing to overpay I’d rather keep them.
What happens to Miley? Do we attempt to resign? Wonder how much he'll make, 3 years $33M? Mike Minor who has been similarly up and down his whole career signed for 3 years at $28M back in 2018 and was 2 years younger when he signed the deal. Maybe we can get him for $30M or less?
I would too, but this may up his price tag. I can see him asking for 3 years, and a steeper price. Maybe Mike Minor money, like somebody mentioned, but probably a little more. I love Wade Miley, but he has had an injury history, and he's not a workhorse like JV and Cole are. Glad we signed him at a bargain, but all options must be looked at next year.
His era was HR rate inflated. His peripheral advanced stars were better than verlander even with that era. Cole has had a better year than verlander all year if you dive into the numbers that take bad luck out if the equation.
Why can't the Astros farm good starters? It wouldn't matter if we lose guys like Cole if Luhnow and Co. knew how to draft pitching.